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Chiefs Super Bowl Odds & Why They'll Win

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: January 21, 2025 6:43 AM EST • 3 min 47 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes reacts against the Houston Texans as we discuss the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds and why they'll win.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes reacts against the Houston Texans. Photo by Jay Biggerstaff / Imagn Images.

The Kansas City Chiefs are two wins away from making history.

While overcoming the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship and prevailing against the Washington Commanders or Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59 will take a near-flawless effort, Andy Reid's squad embodies the perfect definition of clutch, showcasing time and again how to get the job done in win-or-go-home situations. 

Here's a look at the Kansas City Chiefs odds and why they'll win their third successive Lombardi Trophy. 

Chiefs Super Bowl odds

Best odds: +240 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 29.41%

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DraftKings and bet365 offer the best Chiefs' three-peat odds (+240). Those odds would pay a $24 profit on a winning $10 bet, while our other best Super Bowl betting sites range from +210 to +230. At +210, FanDuel has the worst price, while Caesars offers a reasonably competitive +230. 

The implied probability of the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds ranges from 29.41% (+240) to 32.26% (+210). 

Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl

Asking why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl is like questioning why Italians drink an espresso to kickstart each morning. It's inherent, habitual, and woven into their very fabric. But let's break it down, starting with motivation.

The thought of doing something unprecedented, becoming the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, will provide more than enough inspiration for this team. There's no better way to underline and embolden their dynastic run.

Patrick Mahomes near unbeatable in the playoffs

Mahomes improved his playoff record to 16-3 after beating the Houston Texans in the divisional round. Joe Montana and Tom Brady were 14-4 after 18 postseason games, putting Mahomes' arresting achievement into perspective. His .842 win percentage is the best for any quarterback with over 10 postseason starts. 

Brady and Joe Burrow are the only quarterbacks to defeat Mahomes in the postseason. The Chiefs' legend has defeated Josh Allen in three straight playoff encounters. If you're wondering, the Bills quarterback might be the only person or thing that can prevent the Chiefs from obtaining the ever-elusive three-peat.

Andrew Brennan makes the case for Allen and Co. and the Bills Super Bowl odds.

The Chiefs' unrivaled ability to win when it matters most

Mahomes has been a professional football player for eight years. He's made seven straight AFC Championship Games, with the only exception being his rookie season, when Alex Smith was still the Chiefs' starter.

It's an astonishing stat amid an even more staggering career. 

Making it to four of the last five Super Bowls is all you need to know about their unrivaled ability to win in the clutch. Whether due to experience, an uncanny knack for persevering, or sheer dumb luck, the Chiefs showcased the same ability in the regular season. Eleven of their 15 victories came by eight points or less. That's an 11-0 record in such contests. 

The aforementioned reasons are also why I backed Kansas City in my Bills vs. Chiefs early picks and predictions. 

Chiefs key contributors

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB: Mahomes has won three Super Bowls and has claimed three Super Bowl MVPs, throwing 47 touchdown passes in the postseason. He led his team to 15 wins despite one of his worst statistical seasons. And he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 11 against the Bills.
  • Travis Kelce, TE: Kelce saves his best for the postseason. He came to life in the divisional round against the Texans, with 117 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. It was his most productive outing of the season. Kelce has a 17-6 playoff record, averaging 88 receiving yards per contest with 20 total touchdowns.
  • Isiah Pacheco, RB: Pacheco hasn't exceeded 55 rushing yards since returning from injury in Week 13. However, he's 8-0 in the playoffs and has the ability to have an explosive game. He also adds an extra layer to the Chiefs' offense.
  • Chris Jones, DE: Jones was among the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds front-runners for most of the season before falling off the pace in the final few weeks. He's 15-5 in the playoffs and has 22 solo tackles and 18 quarterback hits, along with six tackles for a loss.

How the Chiefs got here

  • Record: 15-2
  • Points per game: 22.7 (15th)
  • Points against per game: 18.9 (3rd)
  • Playoff wins: 23-17 (vs. Texans)

It's been eight games since the Chiefs last turned the ball over. They last coughed it up in Week 11 against the Bills when Mahomes threw two picks. The Chiefs didn't score 30 points in any game this season but had the second-best overall defense, according to PFF. Kelce has two 100+ yard receiving games this season, one of which was in the divisional round against the Texans.

Chiefs odds vs. Bills

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.