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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 9

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: October 29, 2024 11:08 AM EDT • 3 min 33 sec read.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield hands off to running back Bucky Irving as we make our Buccaneers vs. Chiefs early picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield hands off to running back Bucky Irving. Photo by: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images.

After opening the season with three wins in their first four games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dropped three of four to fall back to .500 and stumbled out of first place in the NFC South.

It won’t be easy for the Bucs to turn things around Monday night in Kansas City. They're big underdogs versus Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs squad that has won 13 straight dating back to last season when the teams clash at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

As part of our Week 9 NFL predictions, my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs early picks and odds break down the matchup and where the betting value lies for this Monday Night Football Week 9 clash.

My early Buccaneers vs. Chiefs prediction: Buccaneers +9

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Buccaneers +9

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.4%

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For a team seeking a franchise-record 14th consecutive victory, the Chiefs haven’t dominated their opposition as much as you might think. Only two of their last 10 victories have come by more than a touchdown, and they haven’t scored more than 28 points in a game since last November.

While Kansas City enters Week 9 with a 2.5-game lead on the Denver Broncos for first in the AFC West and as the favorite by the Super Bowl odds, Tampa Bay should be desperate to turn things around after losing three of its last four. The good news is that the Bucs’ offense is still humming along despite losing top receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, putting up nearly 400 total yards in last week’s 31-26 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

Tight end Cade Otton emerged as the team’s top weapon against Atlanta, scoring two touchdowns, and should do some damage again Monday against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2024. Whether the Bucs keep things close throughout or need a late score for a backdoor cover, expect Tampa’s offense to do enough to keep them inside this big number.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 9 game.

Moneyline

  • Chiefs best odds: -450 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 81.8%
  • Buccaneers best odds: +350 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 22.2%

Nearly all of our best sports betting apps offered Bucs moneyline at +350, with Caesars lagging slightly behind at +345. Interestingly, BetMGM and FanDuel were the best of our top NFL sportsbooks to use for moneylines on both sides, with their -450 price on Kansas City edging out Caesars (-455).

Spread

  • Chiefs best odds: -8.5 (-108) via DraftKings
  • Buccaneers best odds: +9 (-110) via Caesars

This line was painted at Chiefs -9 in the Monday Night Football odds as books guarded against bettors looking to tease KC below a field goal. DraftKings was an exception, offering the Chiefs at -8.5 and at -108 juice. 

The Buccaneers have lined bettors’ pockets in recent years when spotted this many points, going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as underdogs of more than a touchdown. That includes a straight-up road win over the Detroit Lions this season in Week 2 when Tampa Bay was a 7.5-point 'dog.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 44.5 (-110) via FanDuel
  • Under best odds: 44.5 (-108) via DraftKings

Even though the Buccaneers are averaging more than 30 points per game over their last five, oddsmakers opened this total as a middle-of-the-pack number by the Week 9 NFL odds. FanDuel was among the many books that offered standard -110 juice on the Over 44.5, while DraftKings gave bettors a discounted -108 price on the Under 44.5.

With public money likely to back Tampa Bay to go Over for a sixth straight time, don’t be surprised to see this total creep up Sunday morning — if it hasn’t already throughout the week.

How to watch Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

  • When: Monday, Nov. 4
  • Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 50 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NW
  • Favorite: Chiefs -8.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper has written about sports in various capacities for more than 20 years, including as a newspaper reporter, sports handicapper, and betting analyst. He originates hockey plays every day throughout the NHL season, regularly bets his own opinions on NFL and college football, and relies on handicappers he trusts to find daily action in basketball, baseball, soccer, tennis, and golf. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in the Toronto area, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process. He's also a big believer in finding creative ways to generate more value, constantly scouring BetMGM, Caesar, FanDuel, and other regulated sportsbooks' derivative markets such as team totals, alternate lines, and player props.