Broncos vs. Chargers TNF Prop Bets, Odds: Thursday Night Football
We're getting a highly anticipated AFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football when the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers, and there's plenty to play for as these division rivals jockey for playoff positioning.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds contender Bo Nix leads his Broncos into Inglewood to take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers at SoFi Stadium.
Denver enters this contest coming off a convincing home win against the Indianapolis Colts, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers thoroughly dominated Los Angeles in L.A. during Week 15.
I'm expecting a Chargers player to bounce back after facing one of the league's stingiest run defenses. The latest Thursday Night Football odds back the Chargers to find their groove again, as they serve as -2.5 favorites for this 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) affair.
We're riding with the favorites for our Broncos vs. Chargers prediction, which is just a taste of what we're offering bettors as part of our NFL Week 16 predictions.
Broncos vs. Chargers player props: Thursday Night Football
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Gus Edwards Over 10.5 rushing attempts (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 receptions (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+155) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Let me be clear: Gus Edwards is not good. Neither this bet nor our other one on him should suggest otherwise. However, he can still smash it in if the Chargers get down toward the goal line.
Sure, Edwards played significantly fewer snaps than fellow running back Kimani Vidal in Week 15. But that was more a product of the Chargers abandoning the run against a stout Buccaneers line. Despite that he managed eight carries (more on that later), and Edwards should still own an edge over the smaller Vidal if the Chargers look to run the ball in the red zone.
Edwards' TD projection is a solid 0.55, which is right around the low end of my threshold for running backs. I mainly like this bet so much because of the generous odds we're getting. This long price is likely the result of Edwards' lack of snaps last week and general terrible play.
Let's take advantage of a mistake from our best sports betting sites and capitalize on these +155 odds, which provide a $15.50 profit on a winning $10 wager.
Best odds: +155 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 39.22%
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Thursday Night Football picks
- Thursday Night Football odds
- Broncos vs. Chargers prediction
- Broncos vs. Chargers TNF prop bets
- Broncos vs. Chargers parlay picks
- Bo Nix NFL player prop odds
- Justin Herbert NFL player prop odds
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- First touchdown scorer predictions
Broncos vs. Chargers TNF prop predictions
Gus Edwards Over 10.5 rushing attempts (+106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We'll stick with Edwards for our second pick, and it's a volume-based bet rather than anything to do with his yardage.
We're seeing truly absurd value on the Over 10.5 rushing attempts for Edwards based on this price at FanDuel. A couple of our other best sports betting apps are setting this line at 9.5. But this is the higher EV play based on a projection of just better than 13.5 carries.
It's possible Edwards clears his 34.5 rushing yards total too. But with the way he's been running lately, I'm far more inclined to approach that prop with some added skepticism.
Therefore, we'll back Edwards to log three more carries than last week in what should be a much more positive game script.
For those who want to bet the 9.5 instead, the best price on the Over is at ESPN BET, which features -125 odds.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%
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Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 receptions (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chargers have played consecutive games in which they've been forced to throw more, resulting in five catches for wide receiver Quentin Johnston in each one. However, Johnston cleared this mark just twice in his other 10 games this season prior to those contests.
Johnston is projected for right around 3.5 receptions on Thursday, so it's not the most significant discrepancy between the line and projection. However, we're still getting better than 9% positive expected value through these +105 odds.
The real reason I like this bet so much is that bet365 is hanging a rogue price. The rest of our best sportsbooks are trading this Under at minus money, with FanDuel as short as -128.
It'll be a sweaty one, but we'll see less of Johnston in this game with the Chargers unlikely to be playing catchup. The same is true of the Chargers' passing game broadly in an attempt to protect Herbert from continued abuse.
Best odds: +105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 48.78%
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Broncos vs. Chargers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Broncos vs. Chargers
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chargers -3 (-105 via BetMGM)
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