Bills vs. Colts Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Increased Workload for Taylor
Turning back to Joe Flacco at quarterback didn't pay dividends for the 4-5 Indianapolis Colts last week, and they've lost two straight with the veteran under center. Indianapolis needs to turn things around quickly when the surging Buffalo Bills (7-2) come to town Sunday for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium (CBS).
As part of our Week 10 NFL predictions, our Bills vs. Colts player prop bet odds and touchdown picks expect Indy to lean more heavily on star running back Jonathan Taylor. Will it pay off? We break it down below.
Bills vs. Colts NFL player prop bets: Sunday
Odds as of Thursday and subject to change.
- Dawson Knox touchdown pick: anytime touchdown scorer (+525 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Jonathan Taylor Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- DeForest Buckner Over 3.5 tackles and assists (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bills vs. Colts touchdown pick
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown scorer (+525) ⭐⭐
If you’re going to bet any Bills touchdown props, you might as well take some long shots. No team has spread the TD catches around as much as Buffalo, which has seen 11 different players connect with Josh Allen on a touchdown strike. Last week, Mack Hollins, Ray Davis, and Quintin Morris were on the receiving end of Allen's TD passes.
With top wideouts Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper both nursing wrist injuries that might sideline them for Sunday, it might be Knox’s turn to join the party. The veteran tight end has only one TD catch in 2024, but he’s had chemistry with Allen in the past (15 TD catches from 2021-22).
Of course, the biggest reason to play Knox is the chance at a fat payout, and Caesars is obliging with a hefty +525 return. By comparison, FanDuel lists Knox’s anytime touchdown odds at +330.
Best odds: +525 via Caesars | Implied probability: 16%
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Best Bills vs. Colts prop bets
Jonathan Taylor Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With Anthony Richardson benched and Flacco struggling, Taylor is the key to getting the Indianapolis offense back on track. After gaining 48 yards on just 13 carries last week, I expect Taylor to get the rock early and often on Sunday afternoon.
An increased workload for Taylor makes sense against a Buffalo run defense that gave up 149 rushing yards last week to the Miami Dolphins, the fifth time this season that the Bills have yielded at least 120 yards on the ground. It’ll also allow Indy to control the clock and shorten the game rather than getting in a shootout with the high-scoring Bills.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.5%
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DeForest Buckner Over 3.5 tackles and assists (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Colts’ Pro Bowl end looks fully recovered from the high ankle sprain that sidelined him for four games earlier this season. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Buckner racked up four solo tackles, two assists and a sack — the second time in four outings that Buckner has been in on six tackles.
In addition to blowing up Buffalo’s running game or taking down Allen, Buckner should also have tackle opportunities around the line of scrimmage on short Bills passing plays. Allen averaged a career-low 3.7 air yards per attempt last week and checked down on nearly 20% of his drop-backs, so Buckner should also be in the vicinity on a few completions.
Not all of our best sports betting apps were offering Buckner tackle props at the time of writing, but the ones that were had odds in the same -120 range as BetMGM.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.5%
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Bills vs. Colts game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 10
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Bills -4 (-108 via DraftKings)
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