Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction, NFL Picks & Odds Today: AFC Championship Game
The AFC Championship Game pits two teams against each other with a history of putting on epic performances as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS).
To many, this is the matchup of the weekend, and I have you taken care of with my Bills vs. Chiefs prediction. It's all part of our conference championship predictions, which keep you covered from all angles.
Can Buffalo finally overcome Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to earn a trip to the Super Bowl?
Bills vs. Chiefs predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Bills +1.5 (-105 via bet365) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown (+260 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bills vs. Chiefs ATS prediction: AFC Championship Game
Bills to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you read my look at the Bills Super Bowl odds and why they'll win, you know I don't think this will be the last time we see Josh Allen and Co. play this season.
Therefore, my favorite game pick for this showdown is really Buffalo on the moneyline at +112 via FanDuel. I said as much in my conference championships early picks.
However, I understand some people feel more comfortable getting that cushion in case the Chiefs once again pull off their usual tightrope walk and win in miraculous fashion.
Therefore, spread bettors get a few options from our best NFL betting sites that are offering various numbers across the board:
- First, bet365 offers the longest price for the Bills to cover - slightly better than FanDuel's -108 odds on +1.5. For those who believe the Bills should win outright, this is your best option for a spread bet
- The +2 doesn't make any sense. You still need the Bills to win outright or lose by one for your bet to win, or you're just hoping for a push
- Finally, DraftKings alone offers the Bills at +2.5. The -115 odds are a bit too short for my liking. You're sacrificing 80 cents on a $10 wager to get an extra point vs. the -105 odds on +1.5. If you make this same decision 100 times this year, that's $80 you've sacrificed. If your unit is $10, that's eight full bets you could have made (or simply collected as profit). No thanks.
Funny enough, I backed the Philadelphia Eagles to cover as favorites against the Washington Commanders because I argued that though Jayden Daniels will likely be the best player on the field, the Eagles possess more overall talent.
Well, I'm completely contradicting myself here because I believe the Chiefs boast more talent, but the Bills have Allen.
Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, Andy Reid, and the NFL officials will all do their best to stop him, but something tells me 2025 Josh Allen is inevitable.
Best odds: -105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Bills vs. Chiefs best NFL pick
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Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +260 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 27.78%
Terms and conditions apply.
I unsuccessfully bet on Shakir to score last week, though that was at +200. Now we're getting 60 cents on the dollar, and his projection is nearly identical.
The most significant risk with this bet is that it's entirely possible we see a healthy dose of Allen, James Cook, and Ray Davis plowing forward into the red zone. But we've seen a lot of that already, and it's to the point in the playoffs that if we know a team's tendencies, the other team definitely knows too and is preparing.
That means players who you'd otherwise expect to score due to their role between the 20s should get more chances in tight.
Shakir fits that bill. He led the team in targets and receptions last week while being on the other end for more than half of Allen's total passing yards. Allen will look to his most trusted target if he's forced to throw inside the red zone, and that's Shakir.
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions
- AFC Championship best bets
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- Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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- Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
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- How to bet Travis Kelce's NFL player props based on Taylor Swift's attendance
- Conference Championship referees
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Bills vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Bills vs. Chiefs live odds
Bills vs. Chiefs opening odds:
- Bills: +1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Chiefs: -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Bills vs. Chiefs injuries
Bills vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 26 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph W
- Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 via Caesars)
NFL betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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