Bills vs. Chiefs Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More
The Kansas City Chiefs are making their seventh straight appearance in the AFC Championship today and the Buffalo Bills are their opposition for the second time in that span. The AFC Championship will kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium with coverage on CBS, as we round up our Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks.
The Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 en route to the Super Bowl in January 2021. Buffalo won three of the five head-to-head meetings since then, including a 30-21 victory in Week 11 that handed the Chiefs their first loss of the regular season.
Our Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks for the AFC Championship include a pick against the 1.5-point spread, player props, and anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks: AFC Championship
Odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Against the spread pick: Bills +1.5 (-105 via bet365) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer prediction: Either Travis Kelce or James Cook to score the first touchdown (+380 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss Phil Wood's Bills vs. Chiefs parlay picks for a shot at a +700 payday!
Best Bills vs. Chiefs picks
Bills to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If you read my look at the Bills Super Bowl odds and why they'll win, you know I don't think this will be the last time we see Josh Allen and Co. play this season.
Therefore, my favorite game pick for this showdown is really Buffalo on the moneyline at +112 via FanDuel. I said as much in my conference championships early picks.
However, I understand some people feel more comfortable getting that cushion in case the Chiefs once again pull off their usual tightrope walk and win in miraculous fashion.
Therefore, spread bettors get a few options from our best NFL betting sites that are offering various numbers across the board:
- First, bet365 offers the longest price for the Bills to cover - slightly better than FanDuel's -108 odds on +1.5. For those who believe the Bills should win outright, this is your best option for a spread bet.
- The +2 doesn't make any sense. You still need the Bills to win outright or lose by one for your bet to win, or you're just hoping for a push.
- Finally, DraftKings alone offers the Bills at +2.5. The -115 odds are a bit too short for my liking. You're sacrificing 80 cents on a $10 wager to get an extra point vs. the -105 odds on +1.5. If you make this same decision 100 times this year, that's $80 you've sacrificed. If your unit is $10, that's eight full bets you could have made (or simply collected as profit). No thanks.
Funny enough, I backed the Philadelphia Eagles to cover as favorites against the Washington Commanders because I argued that though Jayden Daniels will likely be the best player on the field, the Eagles possess more overall talent.
Well, I'm completely contradicting myself here because I believe the Chiefs boast more talent, but the Bills have Allen.
Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt, Andy Reid, and the NFL officials will all do their best to stop him, but something tells me 2025 Josh Allen is inevitable.
Best odds: -105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Bills vs. Chiefs prediction made by Andrew Brennan.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Xavier Worthy this, DeAndre Hopkins, that. But at the end of the day, Mahomes always resorts back to Kelce in the playoffs. The future Hall of Fame tight end hauled in seven receptions for 117 yards and a score in Kansas City's divisional-round victory over the Houston Texans.
Kelce has only cleared this total in a handful of games against Buffalo, but his targets have increased significantly over the last two months. The 35-year-old has been thrown to 61 times over the last seven games. He'll look to continue his hot streak as Mahomes turns to old reliable in the contest's crucial moments.
Despite Kelce's numbers declining this season, he showed the world he's still a force to be reckoned with when the lights shine brightest. Caesars offers Kelce Over 6.5 receptions at slightly more than standard vig (-115). We're comfortable playing it at this price given the tight end's historical postseason dominance.
Bills vs. Chiefs player prop picks made by Gabe Henderson.
Either Travis Kelce or James Cook to score the first touchdown ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +380 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 20.83%
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DraftKings is one of the only top sports betting sites where one can bundle two players with one wager to score the game’s first touchdown.
I like the coverage of both teams this play offers. Kelce has topped 70 receiving yards in all three playoff matchups against the Bills. He just completed an NFL-record ninth 100-yard receiving game in the playoffs.
Kelce has a great chance to score first, especially since Patrick Mahomes went 11-for-15 for 124 yards and a touchdown passing between the numbers against a stingy Texans defense.
Buffalo’s offense is one of the most versatile in NFL history, becoming the only team ever to score 30 or more passing and 30-plus rushing touchdowns in the regular season.
The Bills have allowed the first touchdown in their first two playoff games. But if they score first this weekend, Cook is a great bet to be the one to do it after tying for the league lead with 16 regular-season rushing touchdowns and adding two more receiving scores.
Kelce combined with Allen to be the first touchdown scorer has +350 odds (carrying a 22.22% implied probability), so this wager is a good value in comparison.
Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Mike Spector.
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions
- AFC Championship best bets
- Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
- Bills vs. Chiefs player props
- Bills vs. Chiefs parlay picks
- Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Josh Allen player prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes tale of the tape comparison
- How to bet Travis Kelce's NFL player props based on Taylor Swift's attendance
- Conference Championship referees
- Conference Championship coin toss odds
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Conference Championship
- Conference Championship player props
Bills vs. Chiefs odds
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