Bills vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & AFC Championship Odds
All roads go through Kansas City. For the sixth time in the last seven seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the AFC Championship at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
And for the fourth time in the previous five seasons, the Buffalo Bills will look to derail the Chiefs' Super Bowl quest. We all know what happened in the first three, with Josh Allen and Co. falling agonizingly short each time.
Our Bills vs. Chiefs early picks, prediction and odds for Sunday's showcase contest expect Kansas City to do what it almost always does: prevail in the face of untold pressure and expectation.
The analysis below is complemented by our Commanders vs. Eagles early picks and predictions.
My early Bills vs. Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -1.5
NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Chiefs -1.5
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
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Part of me expects Josh Allen to finally exorcise his Chiefs' demons and exact a morsel of revenge on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Co. The 2025 AFC Championship Game represents the Bills' best chance to do exactly that.
Thanks to Allen and his propensity for an MVP moment, the Bills beat the Chiefs in a 30-21 thriller in the regular season.
However - and this is a blue-whale-sized however - the Chiefs are playing at home, where they are 4-1 in the last four AFC Championships. One of those triumphs came against Allen and his Bills.
It's hard to bet against a team that has provided no reason to do so. They got lucky countless times in the regular season, but luck has nothing to do with their postseason success.
Yes, they were fortunate to receive timely favorable calls against the Houston Texans last week. But overall, the Chiefs rarely choke in the most crucial moments. While the Bills have more than enough to motivate them, so do the Chiefs, who are two wins away from doing something no other team has: winning three straight Super Bowls.
Chiefs the healthier of the two
Isiah Pacheco has been largely ineffective since returning from injury but can break out for an explosive game. The Chiefs didn't have his services in Buffalo during the regular season, and he can add an extra layer to the defending champs' offense.
Andy Reid said his team, while banged up, avoided any serious injuries against Houston.
I'm not sure the same thing can be said about the Bills. Starting safety Taylor Rapp, arguably Buffalo's most influential defender, was ruled out against Baltimore because of a hip injury, and cornerback Taron Johnson exited late due to a shoulder problem.
Rapp had an interception against Mahomes the last time the teams met in Week 11. Mahomes also threw a pick to Terrel Bernard in that game. Since then, Mahomes has thrown 12 touchdown passes and no picks.
We'll have to wait and see if they'll be available. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are the healthiest they've been all season. Plus, Mahomes is 16-3 in his postseason career, and his team hasn't turned the ball over in eight consecutive games.
I bet against the Chiefs in Buffalo for last season's divisional-round game, and I won't make the same mistake again, especially not at Arrowhead.
Don't miss our guide for how to bet on NFL or this week's best sportsbook promos.
Bills vs. Chiefs live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for the AFC and NFC Championships.
Moneyline
- Chiefs best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
- Bills best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%
The betting lines won't change much in the lead-up to Sunday's showdown. It's nip and tuck everywhere you turn, with FanDuel offering the best moneyline odds for the defending champs. The Bills sit at +105 at most of our best sportsbooks. Without home-field taken into consideration, this would be a pick 'em.
Spread
- Chiefs best odds: -1.5 (-108 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 51.92%
- Bills best odds: +1.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 51.92%
The Bills have opened as 1.5-point underdogs, and that's a consensus at our best sports betting sites. I can't see the spread changing too much. That said, if anything, it could increase a bit. The Bills could be as large as 2.5-point underdogs at kickoff, though it probably won't increase more than that.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 48.5 (-110) via BetMGM
- Under best odds: 48.5 (-105) via FanDuel
The total is set at 48.5. All of the best sportsbooks are in agreement at this early stage. The first contest had 51 points, so the total might increase slightly. FanDuel offers a marginally better price on the Under than its competitors, where a $10 bet would profit $9.52.
As of Monday, there's only a 30% chance of precipitation. It should be cold enough for snow to fall if it does come down. Unless it changes, the forecast shouldn't impact the total either way.
Bills vs. Chiefs injuries to watch
How to watch Bills vs. Chiefs
- When: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 34 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, winds 7 mph to 11 mph
- Favorite: Chiefs -1.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
NFL betting odds pages
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