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Bills vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions & Odds: AFC Championship

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 26, 2025 12:18 PM EST • 4 min 15 sec read.

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook lands in the endzone to score a touchdown as we make our best Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the AFC Championship.
Pictured: Buffalo Bills running back James Cook lands in the endzone to score a touchdown against the New York Jets. Photo by Mark Konezny / Imagn Images.

There will be plenty of fireworks when the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship on Sunday. Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+).

These two teams are meeting for the fourth time in the last five postseasons, and that gives me plenty of data with which to make my Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

As we continue our conference championship predictions, we look at if this the year that Bills QB Josh Allen finally earns his first postseason victory over Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes? 

Bills vs. Chiefs touchdown predictions

  • Bills anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Josh Allen (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Marquise Brown (+250 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
  • Touchdown pick: Either Travis Kelce or James Cook to score the first touchdown (+380 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Bills anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Josh Allen ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

Allen ran for two touchdowns in last week’s Divisional Round win over the Baltimore Ravens. He has seven career rushing touchdowns in the playoffs, tied for the second-most in NFL history and one shy of matching Steve Young’s record.

He's used his legs a ton down the stretch, averaging 8.1 runs per game over the last nine games. He has 11 touchdowns and 40 designed runs in that span and also led the league in scramble rate this season.

This is a three-star play, as Allen has double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last six games against the Steve Spagnuolo-led Chiefs defense. 

Those who backed this play earlier in the week could have had +100 or -105 odds, but the price is still reasonable and the line movement gives us more confidence in the wager.

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Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Marquise Brown ⭐⭐

Best odds: +250 via Caesars | Implied probability: 28.57%

Mahomes has thrown six touchdowns in his last three matchups with Buffalo, including three in the Week 11 loss this season, so I wanted to back a Chiefs pass catcher’s anytime touchdown odds.

Neither Brown, DeAndre Hopkins nor JuJu Smith-Schuster recorded a catch last week. But Brown was targeted on a wheel route in the end zone and another deep pass from midfield that would have been caught at the five-yard line.

Brown saw 15 targets through his first two games back from injury to end the regular season. He is an interesting option to score this week, as he was not active during the Week 11 game, and the Bills have limited film to know how he is used in the Reid offense.

DraftKings has slightly lower +240 odds for Brown to score a touchdown, so I am headed to Caesars for this wager. Through Caesars’ +250 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $25 in profits.

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Best touchdown scorer pick

Either Travis Kelce or James Cook to score the first touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +380 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 20.83%

DraftKings is one of the only top sports betting sites where one can bundle two players with one wager to score the game’s first touchdown.

I like the coverage of both teams this play offers. Kelce has topped 70 receiving yards in all three playoff matchups against the Bills. He just completed an NFL-record ninth 100-yard receiving game in the playoffs.

Kelce has a great chance to score first, especially since Patrick Mahomes went 11-for-15 for 124 yards and a touchdown passing between the numbers against a stingy Texans defense.

Buffalo’s offense is one of the most versatile in NFL history, becoming the only team ever to score 30 or more passing and 30-plus rushing touchdowns in the regular season. 

The Bills have allowed the first touchdown in their first two playoff games. But if they score first this weekend, Cook is a great bet to be the one to do it after tying for the league lead with 16 regular-season rushing touchdowns and adding two more receiving scores.

Kelce combined with Allen to be the first touchdown scorer has +350 odds (carrying a 22.22% implied probability), so this wager is a good value in comparison.

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Bills vs. Chiefs touchdown scorer odds

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”