Bills Super Bowl Odds & Why They'll Win: Record, Key Contributors, Stats
In the club, we all Buffalo Bills fans.
The NFL playoffs are down to four teams, and the Bills have the unenviable task of trying to take down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game.
For my money, whoever wins this game should go on to win it all against one of two inferior NFC teams, and that's why I'm exploring the Bills Super Bowl odds ahead of what should be an epic battle between AFC juggernauts. Our Gary Pearson broke down the Chiefs Super Bowl odds ahead of Sunday's duel at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Bills Super Bowl odds
Best odds: +260 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 27.78%
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The best price on the Bills isn't much different than the longest odds available for the Chiefs, which are also at DraftKings.
Buffalo is trading at +260 at multiple best sports betting sites to win the Super Bowl, while Kansas City is priced at +240. Somehow, though, the Philadelphia Eagles' longest odds are only +185 after they barely got by the Los Angeles Rams at home in weather that favored the home team.
I think there's a bit of a pricing mistake here, and I'm looking to take advantage of it.
Why the Bills will win the Super Bowl
I wouldn't touch the Eagles Super Bowl odds with a 10-foot pole, so my Super Bowl bet comes down to one of two things: do I think the Washington Commanders can continue their Cinderella run for two more games, or do I believe the winner of the AFC title game will go on to win the Super Bowl?
I'm sure you know my answer, based on the title of this article.
AFC Championship Game ML vs. Super Bowl bet
The Bills' Super Bowl odds carry an implied probability of just 27.78%, while their best moneyline odds for the AFC title game vs. the Chiefs (+115 via Caesars) suggest Buffalo has a 46.51% chance of advancing to the Super Bowl.
So, if you think the Bills will win this game but are more concerned about the Eagles (or Commanders) than I am, you still have a nice plus-money price available.
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However, I'll continue to fade the worst quarterback remaining in the playoffs in Jalen Hurts (who did almost nothing as a passer once again in the divisional round).
And as much as I'd love to see Jayden Daniels and Co. go all the way, I'm not sure they're quite good enough. C Jackson Cowart makes that case for the Commanders Super Bowl odds.
You could always double dip on both the moneyline and the Bills' Super Bowl odds, but I'd argue that's a bit of a reckless betting strategy at this point in the season. Unless you've already bet on the Bills to win it all, determine which bet you're most confident in, and wager a full unit there.
Why the Bills should win the Super Bowl
There's a reason why the NFL MVP odds favorites are a pair of quarterbacks: it's the most important position on the field, and Josh Allen is, therefore, the best most important person remaining in the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson didn't exactly lose the game for the Baltimore Ravens this past week, but he also didn't do enough to get them the win. In the end, Mark Andrews is going to take most of the heat, but Jackson committed two turnovers himself. Meanwhile, Allen did exactly what he needed to in order to win.
We nearly saw a glimpse of the old, wild Allen when it appeared he wanted to pitch the ball back to James Cook while getting tackled, but he didn't. Because he doesn't make those mistakes anymore.
The thing that was missing with Allen for years was a level of maturity on the field. But when you combine his talent with poise under center, he becomes an unstoppable force.
What the Bills Super Bowls should be
I also want to always make sure I'm getting some value on the odds I bet.
As someone who believes the eventual champion resides in the AFC, I think both the Bills and Chiefs should be priced closer to +200, so I'll bet this price rather than taking Buffalo to simply defeat Kansas City.
At odds of even only 30 points shorter (+230), Buffalo's implied probability shifts to 30%, and you're losing 30 cents of potential profit for every dollar you bet. That adds up when your unit size increases.
All of our best Super Bowl betting sites have the Eagles priced as the favorites with the Bills and Chiefs trading in this range, and I simply don't understand the logic behind that move.
Bills key contributors
- Josh Allen, QB: No, your eyes don't deceive you. There is one name here, and one name only.
The idea for this section was to highlight the Bills' key contributors. And yes, James Cook is a great and actually underrated running back. Khalil Shakir is a very solid wide receiver, and there will certainly be a number of players on the defensive side of the ball who need to remain disciplined every time the Chiefs snap the ball.
However, if the Bills win this game, it's going to come own to one man.
We know Mahomes and Co. are going to throw everything they have at Buffalo; Kansas City is a different monster in the playoffs, so the Chiefs will almost definitely be more efficient on offense than they were when these teams met in Week 11. Mahomes threw two picks in that loss, but Kansas City hasn't committed a turnover in a ridiculous eight straight games.
The Bills' defense will do its part, but it's unlikely it'll be able to make a game-breaking play like it did against the Ravens.
So, yes, it'll come down to Allen. Can he keep up with and out-do the greatest playoff performer of this generation, on the road in front of a very hostile crowd, with the far inferior skill position talent surrounding him?
If Allen does what I think he's capable of, the Bills will emerge victorious - not only from this game, but the Big Game, as well.
How the Bills got here
- Record: 13-4
- Points per game: 30.9 (2nd)
- Points against per game: 21.6 (T-11th)
- Playoff wins: 31-7 (vs. Broncos), 27-25 (vs. Ravens)
Most importantly, one of those 13 wins was a 30-21 victory against the Chiefs, which handed them their first loss of the season.
That game was played in Buffalo, though, and Kansas City will be looking for revenge on its home field this time.
Bills odds vs. Chiefs
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