Bears vs. Lions Prediction, Picks & Best Bets Today: NFL Thanksgiving
The Detroit Lions and their powerful offense can become the first NFL team to hit 11 wins this campaign as they do the annual honors of opening up the Thanksgiving football festivities, this time against the Chicago Bears at 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS).
It'll be the first of a Thanksgiving tripleheader, and the Lions are heavily favored to triumph over the reeling Bears, who have lost five straight. The 10-1 Lions enter Week 13 as the Super Bowl odds favorites.
As an extension of our Bears vs. Lions early picks, our Bears vs. Lions prediction forecasts that Detroit will keep the success of significant favorites going on Thanksgiving with a massive victory at Ford Field as part of our NFL Week 13 predictions.
We also analyzed the other two games with our NFL Thanksgiving picks.
Bears vs. Lions predictions
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Lions -10 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Bears ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bears vs. Lions ATS prediction: NFL Thanksgiving
Lions to cover the spread: -10 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Chicago’s defensive issues
Last week, the Bears allowed Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to throw for 300-plus yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions for the first time since 2019. In the process, they allowed Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to each finish with career-highs in receiving yards in a game.
Chicago now faces a Lions offense that has scored 52 points in two straight home games and 20 or more in nine consecutive games overall. Jared Goff running an offense indoors is a handful to deal with, as he has completed 74.8% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions indoors to bolster his NFL MVP odds.
Cautious optimism around Bears offense?
Early returns suggest Chicago’s move to promote Thomas Brown to offensive coordinator has paid huge dividends.
In his first game with Brown as the new play-caller, rookie QB Caleb Williams averaged 2.42 seconds to throw - his shortest in a game this season. He followed that up with a 340-yard, two-TD performance against the Vikings, breaking a four-game drought without a passing touchdown.
However, the outlook surrounding the Bears offense this week would be vastly different if they hadn't scored 11 points in the final 22 seconds of last week’s game against Minnesota to force overtime.
They are still facing a Lions defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in 10 straight quarters, while holding opponents to six or fewer points in consecutive games for the first time since 1983.
Brenden Schaeffer wrote more about this Bears offense when discussing his Caleb Williams player prop bets
Trends back Lions with confidence
On one hand, Goff and Lions head coach Dan Campbell haven't won any of their three Thanksgiving games together. But they are 2-1 ATS in that span, and favorites on Thanksgiving have covered 66.7% of the time (38-19 ATS) since 2004, per Evan Abrams.
The most telling trend is the one that should calm the fears of bettors unwilling to lay more than 10 points in this divisional matchup. Double-digit favorites have covered each of their last nine games on Thanksgiving since 2005, per Abrams, with an 11-0 ATS record in that split since 1990.
Our best sportsbooks have moved this line from 10.5 to the key number of 10 despite early betting support favoring Detroit at a 2-to-1 clip. That suggests sharps are backing the road underdogs, but I remain confident in the home favorites.
We also used this bet as part of our Bears vs. Lions parlay.
Bears vs. Lions best bet
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Jahmyr Gibbs Over 19.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Despite optimism about David Montgomery’s availability to face his former team after leaving last week’s game with a shoulder injury, I am expecting Gibbs to continue to contribute in the passing game.
Gibbs is the third Lions player with 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 or more scrimmage touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. Our Phil Wood expects him to score twice as part of his Bears vs. Lions player props.
He has cleared this projected total in seven of 11 games this year, including two of the last three. And in the lone game he finished below this total in that span - he had nine receiving yards last week - his three targets matched his high from the previous five weeks.
The Over is juiced as high as -120 at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best price at bet365, which is offering standard -110 juice with a $10 bet profiting $9.09.
We backed Gibbs' quarterback with our Jared Goff player prop bets.
Bears vs. Lions odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Bears vs. Lions live odds
Bears vs. Lions opening odds:
- Bears: +11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Lions: -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Bears vs. Lions odds movement
The spread for this game has stay relatively steady while always slanted heavily toward the Lions, as expected. It opened at -10.5 in favor of Detroit, and now it can be found at -9.5 through some of our NFL prop betting sites in the hours before kickoff.
There's a similar tale with the moneyline, which has fallen a smidge from the Lions being the overwhelming favorites at -425 to roughly -400 now. Lastly, the total started at 48 before climbing to 49, and now it's dipped down to 47.5 in some spots.
Bears vs. Lions game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 28
- Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
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