NFL Awards Odds, Predictions & Best Bets: Ranking Our Favorite Races Ahead of Week 1
There are few markets more rewarding to bet into than NFL awards races. And they can be among the most profitable, too.
Over the years, I've made more money betting on awards markets than anything else - more than Super Bowl odds, division markets, or player props. That's to say nothing of the (painfully) long list of second-place finishes I've endured since I began seriously betting on NFL futures shortly after they were legalized nationwide.
Of course, not every awards market is built equally. I've cashed two NFL MVP bets in the last five seasons but can't seem to close the deal on defense, and the Comeback Player of the Year market is the bane of my existence.
So, with the NFL Week 1 odds closing in, here's a look at my favorite NFL awards odds and predictions, ranked by which futures markets are most worth your attention:
1. NFL MVP odds
This is the crown jewel of them all, and it's been my most profitable betting market across any sport over the last five years.
In 2019, I cashed my first NFL MVP ticket on Lamar Jackson at +5500, which I placed mere minutes before he shredded the Miami Dolphins' defense in Week 1.
Last year, I cashed again on the Baltimore Ravens star at +1600 with the single-biggest wager of my betting career. I felt like the market was clearly overlooking his upside after two seasons cut short by injury, and he rewarded me handsomely.
Every year, I try to target one quarterback (at least) that our best sportsbooks aren't properly respecting based on their team's upside and their potential for gaudy numbers. Recent misses include Matthew Stafford (2021) and Tua Tagovailoa (2022) - both of whom were the odds-on favorites at one point before falling off late in the season.
2024 NFL MVP prediction
This year, I have my sights set on Kirk Cousins, whose NFL MVP odds opened as high as +6000 in February before he signed with the Atlanta Falcons.
I bet him at +4000 ahead of free agency, and he's still trading at those same odds at BetMGM, which is an absolute bargain given that Cousins was on an MVP pace last year pre-injury. He'll be surrounded by the best overall supporting cast he's ever had, and I love his chances of turning in a career year in 2024.
Best odds: +4000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 2.44%
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2. NFL Coach of the Year odds
Who doesn't like betting on Coach of the Year? It's one of the few markets where every single competitor has a legitimate case to make for the award, and the ensuing debates are as entertaining as any MVP discussions.
There are also easy NFL coach of the betting trends to follow for an inside track.
Of course, not all cases have equal merit, and that's where the fun comes in. The NFL Coach of the Year odds market rewards bettors for identifying which teams might make the biggest leap - which is always a worthwhile exercise ahead of NFL season - or which narrative angles will resonate most with voters.
This race leans the hardest of any futures market into the psychological nature of awards and the implicit biases of voters, which is my favorite way to find an edge.
It's also a great market to bet during the season across our best live betting sites. I cashed on Kevin Stefanski at +1200 odds last December as the media lavished praise on him for leading the injury-riddled Cleveland Browns to the playoffs. The market was slow to react, and I was richer for it a few weeks later.
2024 NFL Coach of the Year prediction
Raheem Morris would be my pick if all odds were equal, as I'm especially high on the Falcons - who were featured in my Super Bowl predictions - and he benefits from being a first-year head coach in Atlanta.
He's dealing anywhere from +1200 to +1400 with those latter odds at BetMGM. That's worth a wager in my view, but this is a market that rewards the bold, and I'm looking further down the board at Kevin O'Connell - whose path to winning this year looks an awful lot like Stefanski's a year ago.
With NFL rookie QB J.J. McCarthy ruled out for the season, journeyman QB Sam Darnold will take the reins for the Minnesota Vikings in a difficult division. That sets the stage for what should theoretically be a rebuilding year up north.
If the Vikings end up making the playoffs - they're trading no higher than +300 by the latest NFL playoff odds - I think O'Connell will get the lion's share of credit. I'd much rather bet on his COTY odds with a much juicier return.
Best odds: +2000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 4.76%
3. NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
This award is one of my favorites every year because voters only seem to care about three things: sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns.
The winner by the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds has been a pass-rusher nine of the last 10 years, with the lone exception coming when Stephon Gilmore led the league in interceptions (six) and passes defensed (20). The award has gone to the sacks leader three times in the last six years and five of the last 12.
Defending winner Myles Garrett tied for seventh in sacks (14) but was central to the NFL's top-ranked defense. That's the compelling part about this award: it's all about identifying high-impact defenders who make "splash plays," which is both volatile and predictable enough to keep this race interesting.
2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year prediction
In most awards markets, I'm privy to a long shot (if you couldn't tell). In this case, though, I'm all-in on betting favorite Micah Parsons ahead of what should be a monster year.
The Dallas Cowboys star finished as the DPOY runner-up each of his first two seasons, and he settled for third last year despite posting one of the best seasons by any pass-rusher over the last decade.
His downfall was finishing with "only" 14 sacks, which was incredibly the lowest total of his young career. I fully expect him to be a game-wrecker in a contract year under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.
If you're looking for a long shot, keep an eye on Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, who earned first-team All-Pro honors last year and has the versatility and ball-hawking instincts that play well in this market. He's dealing at +4000 via BetMGM, though I'd still have Parsons ranked higher if you make only one bet.
Best odds: +600 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 14.29%
4. NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
This market features just about everything I love about Defensive Player of the Year - and it's even more wide open in theory.
It hasn't played out that way in recent years, as 26 of the last 29 winners were selected within the first 18 picks. The other three were drafted in the second round, and they all played linebacker.
Considering that zero defenders went in the first 14 picks of April's draft, this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds race is especially compelling ahead of Week 1.
2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction
Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu are the clear favorites across our best sports betting sites, but neither is the sort of no-brainer pick that we've seen favored in recent years.
Because of that, I'm particularly infatuated with Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II - not to be confused with the Vikings corner with the same name - who was an All-American at Texas and has already turned heads with his dominant play in the preseason.
That led to our best sports betting apps shortening his odds to no better than +1100, which doesn't offer as much value as his previous high of +1400. I'm still intrigued by how head coach Mike Macdonald will use Murphy as a chess piece on the interior.
While we haven't seen a defensive tackle win this award in a decade, three of them earned DROY honors from 2010-14. I like Murphy's chances to join that group.
Best odds: +1100 via Caesars | Implied probability: 8.33%
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5. NFL Assistant Coach of the Year odds
This award has only been around since 2014, and three of the last four winners are currently head coaches in the NFL. The lone exception is last year's winner, Jim Schwartz, who led a dominant Browns defense that helped Cleveland reach the playoffs for the second time in 21 years.
That also marked the third time in 10 seasons that the Coach of the Year and Assistant of the Year hailed from the same team, which previously happened with the Ravens (2019) and Arizona Cardinals (2014).
I would rank this market higher if I had more history betting into it, but this is a relatively new entry to the market, and only FanDuel is currently offering this market.
2024 NFL Assistant Coach of the Year prediction
Ben Johnson is the clear name that sticks out: he's the architect of a Detroit Lions offense that routinely punches above its weight class, and he seems almost certain to jump for a head coaching role next year.
Yet his +900 odds don't offer a ton of value given that 50-plus coaches can make a legitimate case for this award.
What about Los Angeles defensive coordinator Jesse Minter? The former Michigan assistant was instrumental in shaping the Wolverines' top-ranked defense over the last two seasons, and he followed Jim Harbaugh to assume the same role this year with the Chargers.
I'm shocked he's dealing at +12000 odds, which imply that he has less than a 1% chance of winning this award. In such a wide-open market, that's well worth a wager at even a quarter-unit.
Best odds: +12000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.83%
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6. NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds
This has been a frustrating award to bet in recent years for two reasons: it typically goes to a favorite, and it's often unclear if they actually deserve it.
Given that the league's MVP is (almost) always goes to a quarterback, you'd think this would just be another trophy on their mantle, right? Instead, voters tend to reward the most "historic" performance by a non-passer ... or, not.
Last year, Tyreek Hill led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, but Christian McCaffrey won this award in near-unanimous fashion because Hill ultimately didn't break the single-season receiving record.
Ironically, McCaffrey became the first player in league history with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in 2019. He finished third behind Jackson - the MVP winner - and Michael Thomas, who finished with a record 149 catches but had fewer yards and touchdowns than Hill did last season.
2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year prediction
The best NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds values are all courtesy of FanDuel, and there are a few players I'd target even with my general disdain for this market.
Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb would be my pick among the favorites at +1100 as the clear No. 1 option for one of the NFL's best offenses, though I don't love laying short odds on anyone in this market.
I'm also intrigued by running backs Saquon Barkley (+3000) and Kyren Williams (+6000), who should get every opportunity to put up numbers as the featured focus in what should be dynamic offenses in 2024.
That said, I am deeply in love with Aaron Jones as a 200/1 long shot.
In his final year with the Green Bay Packers, the do-it-all back led the league in success rate (62%) and rushed for 116.8 yards per game over his final five starts (including playoffs).
Given the uncertainty under center for Minnesota, I'm expecting the Vikings' new star back to enjoy a heavy workload - which is sometimes all it takes to win this award.
Best odds: +20000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 0.50%
7. NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
This is another award I'm not particularly fond of, in part because so many of the typical markers don't apply.
Team success only means so much in this market, as most star rookies end up on bad teams. Yet elite individual performance by a running back or receiver often isn't enough to overcome a solid passer - if there's even one starting and playing at a high level.
Last year, C.J. Stroud checked all the boxes for the Houston Texans, and we could be in store for another clear-cut winner this year. But that is more of the exception than the rule in this race. The Texans won their division and made the playoffs last year after going 3-13-1 during 2022, after all.
In the end, betting into the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds market often boils down to one central question: is there an elite quarterback prospect who will start a majority of his team's games? And if so, will they stay healthy?
2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction
Look, this award is Caleb Williams' to lose barring injury or exceptional misfortune for the Chicago Bears' offense.
That said, Williams staying upright for 17 games behind that shaky O-line certainly isn't a given. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are the only other QBs starting Week 1, but I have serious questions about both passers in Year 1.
Caesars is offering both Malik Nabers (+1500) and Xavier Worthy (+2200) at outlier prices. Those are the only two players I'd consider outside of Williams, as their game-breaking speed could give them an outside shot to win this award.
In the end, though, the No. 1 pick is the overwhelming favorite for a reason. And these market-best odds at Caesars are worth at least a small sprinkle.
Best odds: +140 via Caesars | Implied probability: 41.67%
8. NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
I have a love-hate relationship with this market, which is as intriguing as it is irrational. And it's rapidly trending toward the latter.
Last year, the betting community tore itself apart debating the merits of Joe Flacco - a quarterback who signed off the street to help the Browns make the playoffs - over Damar Hamlin, who nearly died on the field but apparently didn't play enough snaps to meaningfully "come back" last season.
This award has previously rewarded injury, incompetence, and even incarceration, though the Hamlin saga has shaken my faith in voters once more and leaves me unsure what exactly is being honored in this market.
In the wake of last year's outcome, the AP clarified its criteria to encourage voters to reward "resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time." Good luck parsing through that one.
2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction
At first glance, Aaron Rodgers is the obvious choice as the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite. He played four snaps last year before his much-ballyhooed Jets debut was over, and he's spent the last 12 months rehabbing from an Achilles injury at 40 years old.
But that's too easy, right? Much like Hamlin, I'm not sure Rodgers can win this award without exceeding expectations on the field, which will be tough to do given that he's as short as +1600 to win MVP.
Instead, I'd rather take a shot on someone like Nick Chubb, who suffered a gruesome knee injury last year for the second time in his career. If the Browns back can return to form - or even 80% of it - I have to think he'd have better than a 6.25% chance to curry favor among voters in the most bizarre awards market.
Best odds: +1500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 6.25%
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