Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions Week 15: Sunday's Best TD Odds & Picks
It's been a rough couple of weeks for my anytime touchdown scorer predictions, but this was expected after an unsustainable hit rate was the story of October and the early portion of November. Let's get back on track in Week 15.
We're targeting a trio of star wide receivers for this weekend's slate, as well as a running back who recently returned from injury and is getting more work with each game.
As part of our NFL Week 15 predictions, we're bringing you two touchdown props for the 1 p.m. ET window and one for the late afternoon games. And, of course, we're offering our best pick for the day's main event, using the Sunday Night Football odds to deliver you a plus-money banger.
Anytime touchdown scorer picks Week 15
Our NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the latest odds among the legal sportsbooks in your region on each of these picks.
Chiefs vs. Browns anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs, RB ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%
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Isiah Pacheco's workload continued to grow last week in his second game back from injury, as he managed 16 touches after only eight in Week 13.
The Kansas City Chiefs now get the Cleveland Browns, who've allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their last three games.
Additionally, the Browns feature one of the weaker secondaries in football, as last week's contest against the Steelers was only the second time all season they've held an opposing wide receiver group to less than 100 yards.
If Patrick Mahomes can get the Chiefs' passing attack going, it'll help set up Pacheco for red-zone touches.
Pacheco's TD projection reflects a continued increase in workload and touches close to the goal line, as it sits at 0.58. Meanwhile, the implied projection of these odds is just 45.45%, which leads me to believe we're still getting a generous number based on the fact that Pacheco has yet to score since returning.
Elsewhere, Connor Cooper is eyeing another key chiefs skill-position player to score in his Chiefs vs. Browns player prop picks.
Jets vs. Jaguars anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Davante Adams, Jets, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +145 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40.82%
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This would be an appropriate price if Davante Adams wasn't averaging 10.8 targets across his last five games (three of which he's found the end zone). Unfortunately, for DraftKings, he is, and his Week 15 TD projection of 0.57 - second-best among all wide receivers - reflects that.
It took a couple of games, and it's still not leading to any more wins for the New York Jets, but the Aaron Rodgers and Adams connection finally resembles that of their days with the Green Bay Packers.
In the Week 14 overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins, Adams caught nine of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown.
Now, Adams gets a Jacksonville Jaguars team that's stopped only two wide receiver groups (the New England Patriots and, somehow, Minnesota Vikings) from eclipsing 100 yards in a game.
I'll gladly take the $14.50 in profit we'll get from a winning $10 wager on an Adams touchdown.
Bills vs. Lions anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, WR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +122 via Caesars | Implied probability: 45.05%
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Amon-Ra St. Brown has slowed down following his legendary streak of a touchdown in eight straight games. Much of that is due to a lack of volume, as Jared Goff has targeted St. Brown only 20 times over his last three games, spreading the ball around more.
However, the Detroit Lions are a well-run franchise, and after narrowly beating the Packers last week in a game that St. Brown was barely featured in until the latter stages, Goff should look to get the ball to his top target early and often.
St. Brown's touchdown projection is just slightly below Adams', but one of the additional factors I really like about this game is that it features the highest total of the week. Based on the fact that we have a strong projection and our best sports betting sites believe touchdowns will be scored in bunches, I don't mind betting on St. Brown at slightly shorter odds than I normally would.
Even at these odds, the implied probability is just 45%, showing we still have a solid edge based on the 0.55 projection.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football
Packers vs. Seahawks anytime touchdown scorer prediction: D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks, WR ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +175 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 36.36%
It hasn't been an especially productive return from a two-game absence for D.K. Metcalf, who's failed to eclipse 70 yards in any of the last four contests. Additionally, Metcalf hasn't found the end zone since Week 7. So, why are we backing him to score on Sunday Night Football?
Simply put, his odds offer the best value vs. his projection.
As is the case with all prime-time games, the players who are most likely to score are trading at shorter odds than you'd usually see, because the best sports betting apps know that fans want to get involved. Therefore, we have to dig a little deeper to find value.
Metcalf's touchdown projection for this affair is 0.38, which is probably right around the point where I tend to ignore value because I don't think the win is probable enough. However, his odds are very competitive with those of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he has a better projection than all of them.
Therefore, I'll ride with the bet that's "most likely" to win based on the data.
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