49ers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction
At the start of the season, Sunday’s Week 16 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) looked like a possible Super Bowl preview.
Suffice it to say it doesn’t anymore, with San Francisco essentially out of playoff contention and Miami clinging to faint hopes of a wild card spot. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t still cash in with our 49ers vs. Dolphins player prop picks, including fading one Niners receiver and backing another.
The best NFL betting sites list the visitors as 1.5-point favorites, will any of the players we highlight help impact the outcome?
49ers vs. Dolphins NFL player prop picks: Sunday
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- De'Von Achane touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Deebo Samuel Under 55.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jauan Jennings Over 4.5 receptions (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
49ers vs. Dolphins touchdown prediction
De'Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.40%
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Miami’s touchdown machine sputtered last week against the Houston Texans, failing to find the end zone for just the second time in his last eight games. He’s also been ineffective on the ground of late, being held to 41 rushing yards or fewer in four straight games.
This bet is more about the volume of opportunities Achane should have against the 49ers, whose 13 rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs in the red zone is tied for the most in the NFL.
Miami ranks fourth in running back touches per game in the red zone this season, opting to hand the ball off near the goal line rather than put Tua Tagovailoa at risk.
Achane's anytime touchdown prop also includes the possibility of a receiving TD, something he’s done six times already this season. With FanDuel pricing this close to a coin flip (compared to -141 at Caesars), the value is there to back Achane to reach the end zone again.
Best 49ers vs. Dolphins prop picks
Deebo Samuel Under 55.5 rushing and receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.50%
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Samuel aired his frustration about lack of opportunity in the 49ers offense prior to last Thursday’s game versus the Los Angeles Rams, complaining that he simply isn’t getting the ball. But even nine touches versus the Rams weren't enough to get Samuel going, as he finished with just 19 scrimmage yards.
Whether it’s lower usage, poor blocking in front of him, or an undisclosed injury, Samuel clearly hasn’t been the same in 2024. He’s gone Under his rushing yards prop in 11 of 16 games, and he’s failed to put up more than 35 total yards in five straight.
Oddsmakers are beginning to catch on, setting Samuel’s rushing and receiving yards prop at the second-lowest number it’s been all year, but they still haven’t adjusted enough. You can play this prop at DraftKings, BetMGM, or bet365, all of which offer identical -115 odds on the Under.
Jauan Jennings Over 4.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 57.40%
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Jennings has seen increased usage in the 49ers’ attack with Brandon Aiyuk out for the rest of the season and Samuel struggling. Although he pulled in just two catches last week against the Rams, Jennings was targeted nine times — the fifth time in six games he’s been thrown the ball at least seven times.
We may also see the Niners rely more heavily than usual on their passing game on Sunday. San Francisco could be down to its fourth-string running back and Miami’s secondary has allowed 28 receptions to opposing wideouts over the past two weeks.
Pricing on this bet varies greatly among the top NFL prop betting sites, with DraftKings and Caesars charging -150 or higher on Over 4.5, and FanDuel listing Over 5.5 at plus money. Fortunately, BetMGM is offering -135 juice on the Over 4.5, a prop I’d play up to -150.
49ers vs. Dolphins game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 22
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 76 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, winds 9 mph NE
- Favorite: 49ers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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