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Purdue vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Jan. 18

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 18, 2025 8:13 AM EST • 3 min 32 sec read.

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) dribbles the ball as we make our Purdue vs. Oregon prediction.
Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) dribbles the ball. Photo by Steven Bisig-Imagn Images.

The Purdue Boilermakers and Oregon Ducks meet for the first time as Big Ten foes on Saturday afternoon, with tip-off set for 3 p.m. ET from Matthew Knight Arena, airing on NBC/Peacock.

This matchup of AP top-17 teams also features two of the top five teams in the Big Ten Tournament odds, as Purdue and Oregon have gotten off to 6-1 and 4-2 starts in conference play, respectively. 

The Ducks are 2.5-point home favorites, but our Purdue vs. Oregon prediction and odds make the case for the Boilermakers to pull the road upset on the strength of their experienced backcourt.

Purdue vs. Oregon predictions today

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.

  • Against the spread pick: Purdue +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Oregon ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Braden Smith Under 7.5 assists (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Purdue vs. Oregon ATS prediction

Purdue to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Oregon went 11-0 in non-conference play, with its biggest two wins coming against SEC schools (Texas A&M and Alabama). 

But thus far, the Ducks have not found it easy sledding in the Big Ten, with two home losses to UCLA and Illinois (they lost to Illinois by 32) and three consecutive wins by a combined seven points.

Purdue entered the season ranked 200th in D-I experience, but junior guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are seasoned veterans who led the team to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in their freshman year.

The Boilermakers lost their first two true road games of the season (by 18 at Marquette and 11 at Penn State), but since inserting C.J. Cox and Caleb Furst as starters more regularly, they have been a much better defensive team.

There will be some offensive regression with this game on the road, as Purdue averaged 1.33 points per possession in four home games against top 100 opponents prior to last Sunday’s 104-point outburst against Nebraska.

And while this is Purdue’s third road game in the last four, the fact that it just played at Washington on Wednesday makes this trip to Eugene easier.

Most of our best March Madness betting sites are juiced to -115 or higher to back Purdue at +2.5, so I would not put anyone off waiting to see if the line ever gets to +3 since the inflated juice suggests the line may be headed that way.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Best Purdue vs. Oregon pick

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Braden Smith Under 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Few players are more important to their team than Purdue point guard Braden Smith. Smith ranks 22nd in the country in percentage of his team’s minutes (89.3%), and leads all D-I players in assist rate (46.7%), including a 45.8% assist rate that ranks second in conference play.

This is a contrarian play, as Smith has double-digit assists in four of the last six games, including 14 in two of the last three. However, Oregon’s defense ranks second in league play in lowest percentage of assists allowed per field goals made (43%).

Dana Altman has always been known as a brilliant defensive coach who does not let opponents get comfortable with how often he changes his team’s defenses, and the Ducks have not allowed any player to record more than four assists in the last three games.

The Under is juiced as much as -128 (carrying a 56.14% implied probability) at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best price at bet365. Through bet365’s -115 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Live Purdue vs. Oregon odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Purdue vs. Oregon opening odds

  • Spread: Purdue +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Oregon -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Under 148.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Purdue +125 via BetMGM | Oregon -150 via BetMGM

Purdue vs. Oregon game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 18
  • Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Matthew Knight Arena (Eugene, Ore.)
  • How to watch: NBC/Peacock
  • Favorite: Oregon -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”