North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Jan. 21
North Carolina (12-7) came into the season with high hopes but hasn't lived up to expectations. The Tar Heels will look to build momentum tonight at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) when they take on Wake Forest (14-4) at LJVM Coliseum in Winston-Salem, N.C.
Despite the Heels being 1-point underdogs at our best sports betting sites, our North Carolina vs. Wake Forest prediction, odds & preview see RJ Davis getting Hubert Davis a crucial road win in ACC play.
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: North Carolina +1.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Wake Forest ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: RJ Davis Over 16.5 points (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest ATS prediction
North Carolina to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Tar Heels were viewed as strong March Madness odds contenders three months ago, but they proceeded to start the season 4-4 thanks in part to a tough non-conference schedule.
While North Carolina is still taking its lumps, this is an overrated Wake Forest squad that's taken advantage of a weaker schedule. The Demon Deacons' schedule is 116th in KenPom's strength of schedule rankings while the Tar Heels' is sixth.
It's not as if there haven't been flashes from Davis' squad either, it's 33rd in the country in PPG (82.3) and third in the ACC in relative rating, per EvanMiya. Meanwhile, Wake is just 7th in the ACC in relative rating and its offense has struggled a ton - 152nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 270th in PPG (70.9).
Between Davis, Ian Jackson, and Seth Trimble, the Tar Heels have too much firepower for Wake to blow them out. A $10 winning bet on UNC pays an $8.33 profit, but an outright win with the -104 moneyline odds from FanDuel pays a $9.62 profit.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
Best North Carolina vs. Wake Forest pick
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RJ Davis Over 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After winning ACC Player of the Year last season, Davis opened as the Wooden Award odds favorite this year after shocking some by returning to Chapel Hill. While the Tar Heels' disappointing season has coincided with a downtick in production for the star guard, he's still one of the best scorers in the ACC.
He's seventh in the conference in PPG (17.3), 11th in threes per game (2.0), and sixth in OBPR. His sheer usage alone should help him put up points on a stingy Wake defense - Davis is third in the ACC in field goal attempts per game (14.6).
The Demon Deacons have been susceptible on the perimeter, too, allowing the fourth-most threes per game in the ACC (8.0). So, Davis should have every chance to score Over 16.5 points for the 10th time this year.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Live North Carolina vs. Wake Forest odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest opening odds
- Spread: North Carolina +1 (-110) | Wake Forest -1 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: North Carolina -105 | Wake Forest -115
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest game info
- When: Tuesday, Jan. 21
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: LJVM Coliseum (Winston-Salem, N.C.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Wake Forest -1 (-105 via DraftKings)
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