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North Carolina vs. Florida Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds Tonight

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: December 17, 2024 4:14 PM EST • 2 min 33 sec read.

North Carolina Tar Heels bench reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center, and we offer our top North Carolina vs. Florida prediction.
North Carolina Tar Heels bench reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Photo by Bob Donnan via Imagn Images.

The flawless No. 7 Florida (10-0) will try to maintain an undefeated record while clashing with North Carolina (6-4) at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday in Spectrum Center from Charlotte.

Florida is the 3.5-point favorite, but North Carolina will present a stiff test.

The Tar Heels are rated 28th on KenPom, and they come into this matchup after logging lots of games against elite opponents like Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, and Alabama.

Let's dive in further with our North Carolina vs. Florida prediction ahead of the clash on ESPN.

Tonight's best North Carolina vs. Florida picks

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites. Odds subject to change.

North Carolina vs. Florida ATS prediction

North Carolina to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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The spread moved a point in North Carolina’s favor overnight, suggesting that the best sports betting sites believe Florida will be challenged in Charlotte.

The Gators haven’t played a team rated higher than 57th on KenPom, earning eight wins against programs ranked outside the top 100. Florida’s strength of schedule net rating ranks 162nd in the nation.

I’m not sure how the Gators will respond to their first sign of adversity, which is why I like backing the Tar Heels at anything more than a full possession. KenPom projects Florida as a two-point favorite, so there is a slight edge at +3.5 on an undervalued UNC squad.

North Carolina vs. Florida best pick

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Over 167.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

I like North Carolina in this matchup because Hubert Davis’ team wants to push the pace. The Tar Heels rank fifth in adjusted tempo and fourth in average offensive possession length.

The Gators and their two-big lineup don’t want to get in a track meet with the Tar Heels, but they might not have a choice. Florida’s average offensive possession is the 24th-fastest in the country through 10 games.

The total for Tuesday’s matchup has climbed one point overnight. I don’t think that’s enough in a game that could feature a lot of possessions.

North Carolina vs. Florida odds movement

There's been minor movement in the spread as tipoff approaches. Florida opened as the -4.5 favorite, and the Gators are now widely down to -3.5.

Meanwhile, the total has shuffled upward a few points, commonly moving from 166.5 to 168.5.

Live North Carolina vs. Florida odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

North Carolina vs. Florida opening odds

  • Spread: North Carolina +4.5 (-115) | Florida -4.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: North Carolina +155 | Florida -189

North Carolina vs. Florida injuries

North Carolina vs. Florida game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 17
  • Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Spectrum Stadium (Charlotte)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Florida -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.