Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Our Best Bets for Tonight
A fierce Big Ten rivalry takes center stage as Michigan (20-5) battles Michigan State (21-5) for the conference’s top spot. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX) at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich.
Despite not being among the top March Madness odds contenders, the Wolverines enter as 3-point home favorites. However, our Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction and odds lean toward Tom Izzo’s squad keeping it close as the Spartans chase their coach’s 11th Big Ten regular-season title in what promises to be a tightly contested showdown.
Michigan State vs. Michigan predictions, expert picks & best bets today
Here are my best Michigan State vs. Michigan predictions, picks, and best bets tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: Michigan State +3 (-105 via Caesars) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Danny Wolf Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michigan State vs. Michigan ATS pick & score prediction
With the way the Spartans' defense has been playing against conference opponents, I'm predicting Michigan State will cover the spread (+3) against Michigan.
🏀 Michigan State to cover the spread: +3 ⭐⭐⭐
The winner of this game takes sole possession of the top spot in the Big Ten standings with about two weeks left in the regular season. That alone should make this a tight contest between two Top 25 programs. Throw in these two teams being hated rivals, and Izzo's Spartans should keep this matchup close.
Michigan State's defense is 12th in the country in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom, and it's easily been the best in the conference. The Spartans allow the fewest points per game in Big Ten play (67.0), the lowest field-goal percentage (40.1%), and the lowest 3-point percentage (28.1%).
Jaden Akins and Co. will put plenty of pressure on Dusty May's offense, and they boast the offensive talent to score enough to cover. The Wolverines are eighth in points allowed per game in conference play (75.4).
The Spartans have covered in three of their last four outings, and they should again in what I expect to be a close Michigan win.
Best odds: -105 via Caesars (bet $10 to win $9.52)
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🎯 Final score prediction: Michigan 73, Michigan State 71
For as well as May has the Wolverines playing down the stretch, the Spartans' feisty defense should be capable of making this a close game. That's why I'm predicting a final score of Michigan 73, Michigan State 71, with Izzo's squad suffering a one-possession loss in what will be an emotional game between rivals.
Correct score odds: +17000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,700)
Best Michigan State vs. Michigan player prop bet
Here is my best Michigan State vs. Michigan player prop bet tonight. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
💰 Danny Wolf Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
As Danny Wolf makes a late push to take home Big Ten Player of the Year over Purdue's Braden Smith, the big man is set to produce a quieter game against this Michigan State defense. This number is inflated due to Wolf's play during Michigan's six-game winning streak, which has been against teams that all rank outside the top 35 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Spartans boast the best defense he's faced this season, and they allow the fewest rebounds per game to opponents in Big Ten play too (26.9). It won't help Wolf's stats that Michigan State's offense plays slow and likes to take the air out of the ball, ranking 161st in adjusted tempo.
Look for Wolf's numbers to come back down to Earth in this game. He's averaging 26.5 PRA this season. Wolf has gone Under this number in 13 games this campaign, and a $10 bet pays an $8.85 profit if he does again.
Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%
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Michigan State vs. Michigan AI prediction
We asked ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI, to offer its best AI prediction for Michigan State vs. Michigan tonight, including its pick to win and exact score prediction. ChatGPT is a large language model and is not specifically designed for sports betting predictions.
🤖 AI score prediction: Michigan 76, Michigan State 73
With the Wolverines' efficient half-court offense, elite rebounding, and the Spartans' defensive pressure keeping it close, the projected final score is Michigan 76, Michigan State 73.
- Michigan leads the Big Ten standings while riding a six-game winning steak, and its balanced offense and strong defense have been pivotal during recent successes
- Both teams excel defensively, and Michigan State's top-20 defense will challenge Michigan's offense
- The depth and balanced scoring of both rosters suggests a closely contested game
This matchup carries significant implications for the Big Ten standings, with both teams vying for top positions and momentum heading into postseason play.
📊 Live Michigan State vs. Michigan odds
Here are the latest odds for Michigan State vs. Michigan, which update in real time. You can also check out the rest of our NCAAB scores as they happen.
🔢 Michigan State vs. Michigan opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Michigan State vs. Michigan according to bet365.
- Spread: Michigan State +2.5 (-110) | Michigan -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State +120 | Michigan -140
📺 How to watch Michigan State vs. Michigan tonight
📅 Date: Friday, Feb. 21, 2025
🕗 Time: 8 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
📺 TV: FOX
💻 Streaming: Fox Sports Go app, Fubo
❓ Michigan State vs. Michigan FAQs
Who is favored to win Michigan State vs. Michigan?
Michigan is -150 to win the game, implying a 60% probability that the Wolverines will defeat the Spartans.
What are the odds for Michigan State vs. Michigan?
The Wolverines are a 2.5-point favorite at home over the Spartans, with the game total set at 150.5.
What time is Michigan State vs. Michigan tonight?
Michigan State vs. Michigan is tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
📈 College basketball betting odds pages
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🏀 Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
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