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Alabama vs. North Carolina Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds Tonight

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 4, 2024 9:01 AM EST • 3 min 7 sec read.

Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson dribbles against Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Jordan Derkack, and we offer our top Alabama vs. North Carolina prediction.
Alabama Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson dribbles against Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Jordan Derkack. Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie via Imagn Images.

The North Carolina Tar Heels host the Alabama Crimson Tide in one of the most anticipated SEC/ACC Men’s Challenge matchups.

  • Alabama is an underdog for just the second time this season
  • Alabama’s Mark Sears and UNC’s R.J. Davis are two of the leading candidates for the Wooden Award
  • This game at the Dean E. Smith Center is the Crimson Tide’s second true road game (they lost 87-78 at Purdue)

This SEC/ACC Men’s Challenge matchup tips off at 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN), and our Alabama vs. North Carolina prediction expects the road underdogs to cover in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Tonight's best Alabama vs. North Carolina picks

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Alabama +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Alabama vs. North Carolina ATS prediction

Alabama to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

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If you like up-tempo, fast-paced basketball, this is a matchup to watch, as the two teams each rank in the top seven in the country in adjusted tempo.

While both teams are comfortable getting up-and-down, I believe it works more to the Crimson Tide’s advantage. 

Alabama’s only two losses this year were to Purdue and Oregon, who rank 343rd and 170th, respectively, in adjusted tempo and turned the game into a half-court grind. 

The Crimson Tide committed 15 turnovers in their last loss to Oregon, marking their fourth game with 15 or more turnovers this year. But Alabama is 3-1 overall in those games, and the Tar Heels force turnovers at only the 318th-highest rate (14.4%).

I am backing the Crimson Tide at BetMGM, even at the slightly higher -115 odds, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a point spread better than +2. A $10 winning wager if Alabama covers would net $8.70 in profits.

Alabama vs. North Carolina best pick

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Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The strength of these two teams are their backcourts, as four of Alabama’s top five leading scorers and UNC’s top four scorers are guards. However, I expect Alabama forward Grant Nelson to take advantage of the Tar Heels’ poor interior defense.

UNC has been torched by opposing big men. Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams combined for 34 points, Auburn’s Johni Broome dropped 23, and even Michigan State’s Xavier Booker scored 12 in 25 minutes off the bench against the Tar Heels.

Nelson has scored 15-plus points in two of the last four and three of the previous six games. In a game with a projected total of 175.5 points, I am making this Over a four-star play that the Crimson Tide big man will fill the stat sheet.

For those who think Nelson can go off and reach the 20-point plateau for the third time this season, DraftKings is offering +340 odds on that alternate point total.

Live Alabama vs. North Carolina odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Alabama vs. North Carolina opening odds

  • Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-105) | North Carolina -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: Over 177.5 (-105) | Under 177.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Alabama +115 | North Carolina -140

Alabama vs. North Carolina game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 4
  • Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Dean E. Smith Center (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Team -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”