Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Jan. 18

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 18, 2025 7:51 AM EST • 3 min 31 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Kentucky Wildcats guard Jaxson Robinson (2) hangs on the rim after dunking the ball as we make our Alabama vs. Kentucky prediction. — Pictured: Kentucky Wildcats guard Jaxson Robinson (2) hangs on the rim after dunking the ball. Photo by Jordan Prather-Imagn Images.

Two AP top-8 teams that are 3-1 in SEC play meet at Rupp Arena for a noon E.T. tipoff on Saturday afternoon as the Kentucky Wildcats host the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Crimson Tide had an eight-game winning streak snapped with a 74-64 home loss to Ole Miss on Tuesday, and we analyze if there will be any lingering effects from that loss in our Alabama vs. Kentucky prediction.

The Wildcats are 1.5 or 2-point home favorites across our best March Madness betting sites, with this game airing on ESPN.

Alabama vs. Kentucky predictions today

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.

Against the spread pick: Alabama +2 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐
My best pick: Jaxson Robinson Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Alabama vs. Kentucky ATS prediction

Alabama to cover the spread: +2 ⭐⭐⭐

In the latest edition of Bracketology, the SEC is projected to get 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament field. So while we should get accustomed to those heavyweights knocking each other off in league play, we cannot help but be surprised at how Alabama lost on Tuesday.

The Crimson Tide had scored at least 1.04 points per possession in every game this season before the Rebels held them to 0.84 points per possession on Tuesday. It was also Alabama’s first game scoring fewer than 70 points since a Sweet 16 loss to San Diego State in 2023.

The good news for Alabama is it is facing a forgiving Kentucky defense that has allowed 82 or more points in three of four conference games this season, including 100 points in a home win against Florida.

I am giving Alabama a pass for its 5-for-20 3-point shooting performance against Ole Miss, as Chris Beard’s Rebels rank in the top 20 in the country in 3-point percentage allowed (29.1%).

The Crimson Tide should be successful softening up the middle of a Kentucky defense that ranks dead-last in SEC play in 2-point percentage allowed (62.4%), which should open up things on the perimeter.

More than half of our best sports betting sites have the Crimson Tide at +1.5, so the best value is at Caesars at +2, especially since it's charging the standard -110 juice despite offering an extra half-point.

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Best Alabama vs. Kentucky pick

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Jaxson Robinson Over 2.5 3-pointers made ⭐⭐⭐

Robinson’s last two games have resulted in his two highest point totals of the season.

He scored 27 points and had seven 3-pointers against Mississippi State on Saturday, and 22 points (including five threes) against Texas A&M.

Entering Kentucky’s last game, Mark Pope’s offense had opposing defenses ranked 350th in shot-making and spacing defensive metrics (per ShotQuality).

Robinson has attempted 23 3-pointers in the last two games, and six or more 3-pointers in four of the previous six. With this game having a projected total between 178.5 and 179.5 points, the up-tempo nature should also help this bet cash.

The -115 odds found at bet365 trump the higher -125 juice at Caesars, and a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Live Alabama vs. Kentucky odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Alabama vs. Kentucky opening odds

Spread: Alabama +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) | Kentucky -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Over/Under: Over 179.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Under 179.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Moneyline: Alabama +120 via BetMGM | Kentucky -145 via BetMGM

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Alabama vs. Kentucky game info

When: Saturday, Jan. 18
Tipoff: Noon ET
Where: Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Kentucky -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”