Heat vs. Kings NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds for Jan. 6
Domantas Sabonis hit a game-winner against the Miami Heat to give the Sacramento Kings a one-point road victory at Kaseya Center on Nov. 4 when these teams first squared off.
The Heat enter this rematch fresh off a 36-point blowout loss at home to the Utah Jazz as they look to get back on track and even the season series with Sacramento on the road.
My Heat vs. Kings NBA player prop picks expect Sabonis to have a strong night on the glass and for teammate Malik Monk to stay hot at home. I also examine if Tyler Herro can carry enough of the offensive load for his team when action tips off at 10 p.m. ET from Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif.
If you're looking for action ahead of this late start, I have you covered with my Suns vs. 76ers NBA player prop bets.
Heat vs. Kings player prop picks today
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites and subject to change.
- Domantas Sabonis Over 15.5 rebounds (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Malik Monk Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
See our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
Best Heat vs. Kings prop predictions
Domantas Sabonis Over 15.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Sabonis is second in the NBA at 13.7 rebounds per game, and he’s got a great matchup with Miami tonight. Over the last 10 games, the Heat have allowed the ninth-most rebounds to opponents.
Sabonis has hit the Over on this line in just nine of 33 games on the season, but he’s done it in six of his last 12. In that span, Sabonis has averaged a healthy 15.5 boards.
In the first head-to-head meeting between these teams, Sabonis pulled down 16 rebounds. In two matchups against them last season, he finished with 14 and 17 rebounds.
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
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Herro is averaging a career-high 23.8 points per game this season, and we’re expecting a strong scoring performance tonight in Sacramento. Jimmy Butler will be out again, and Herro has scored 25 or more in five of 11 with Butler off the court.
Herro has scored 25 or more points in 14 of 31 games this season, but he’s averaged 25 on the road compared to just 22.6 at home. He hit the Over on this line in eight of 16 away from Kaseya Center, including five of his last nine.
The Kings have allowed the 12th-most points over their last 10 games and the second-highest three-point percentage across their last five. Herro finished with 27 points and five triples in his first meeting with Sacramento, and he can get to 25 tonight in this favorable matchup.
Malik Monk Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
Monk has been on a roll lately, and we’re riding with the hot hand at home tonight. Monk has averaged 22.2 points, 7.4 assists, and four rebounds across his last five, hitting the Over in three and posting PRA totals of 27 and 28 in the other two.
He hit the Over on this line only once across his first 11 games of the season, but he’s done it 10 times across his last 18. He posted only 12 points and one rebound against the Heat in the first matchup, but Monk logged just 24 minutes off the bench.
Monk started the season as a reserve, averaging 26.6 minutes. Since joining the starting five, his playing time has increased to 33.6 minutes per tilt. He’s expected to remain with the first unit tonight, and this prop will be particularly juicy if De’Aaron Fox is sidelined for a second straight game.
Heat vs. Kings live odds & info
- When: Monday, Jan. 6
- Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Golden 1 Center (Sacramento, Calif.)
- How to watch: NBA TV
- Favorite: Kings -4 (-105 via DraftKings)
Heat vs. Kings injuries
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