Presidential Odds by State: Best Bets Using Nate Silver's Election Model Predictions

Several key battleground states will likely decide the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump is the betting favorite over Kamala Harris at our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) as we inch closer to the Nov. 5 election date; here's a look at where things stand from an odds perspective across every U.S. state and district.

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LATEST UPDATE (Nov. 4, 2024, 7 p.m. ET): All is mostly quiet on the state presidential odds front, with both candidates seeing slight improvements in their respective standings in the swing states where they lead. The biggest move: Pennsylvania, which had been tied from an odds perspective, is now GOP-leaning again. The main U.S. presidential odds from the political betting sites in Canada list Trump around -160 and Harris around +140.

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With the majority of U.S. states galvanized on which presidential candidate they'll favor this fall – and the odds reflect that – the fate of the 2024 election will come down to select states where the outcome is largely unknown.

Will betting favorite Donald Trump flip back the states he lost to Joe Biden in 2020? Or will the Democrats hold on to enough of their gains from four years ago to remain in power? And will there be any shocking reversals of long-standing trends in the more rooted states?

2024 electoral college map

While we wait for the drama to unfold, here's a detailed look at the presidential odds across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, along with the latest modeling projections for relevant states from renowned election forecaster, statistician and writer Nate Silver:

2024 state presidential odds

U.S. state presidential odds (via bet365) and Nate Silver projections as of Nov. 3.

Alabama

Electoral College Votes: 9

Alabama has been consistent in its support of the Republican candidate, which has earned between 60.3% and 62.5% of the state's vote in every election since 2004. A Democratic candidate hasn't earned a majority in Alabama since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Do you believe in miracles? It doesn't matter, because you're not going to see one in Alabama. This state is as red as it gets, and will stay that way beyond Nov. 5.

Alaska

Electoral College Votes: 3

The odds are long for a Democratic candidate to earn Alaska's electoral college votes, but Biden's 42.8% share of the vote in 2020 was the highest for the Democrats since winning the state outright in 1964. Republicans have exceeded 50% of the vote every year since 1992.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The value on this bet has eroded somewhat, unless you believe the Dems can pull off a shocker. Silver's projections say there's a chance, but it's not a good one.

Arizona

Electoral College Votes: 11

The June 27 debate had a considerable impact on the betting odds for both parties, and the prognosis wasn't good at all for the Democrats. But this race is virtually even with Harris at the helm – and that's welcome news for the Dems after Biden finished with a razor-thin edge of 0.3% over Trump in the 2020 voting picture.

Arizona has seen closer finishes than the majority of states since 1996, with both parties earning a minimum of 44.4% of the vote in every election since. Prior to that, Republicans dominated, capturing an average of 61% of the vote from 1976-1988.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Democrats were a massive +525 underdog the day before Harris supplanted Biden. Arizona saw the largest shift in both odds and probability after the switch, but the GOP have widened the gap considerably over the past six weeks and are once again comfortable faves in Silver's model.

Arkansas

Electoral College Votes: 3

The 21st Century has belonged to the Republicans in The Natural State. And voters have steadily shaded red at a higher rate, with Republicans seeing increased vote shares in five consecutive presidential elections entering 2024. Biden earned just 34.8% in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The question here isn't whether the Republicans will emerge victorious – that is a foregone conclusion – but rather, just how large the winning margin will be. A sixth straight vote share lift appears inevitable for the GOP.

California

Electoral College Votes: 54 (⬇️ 1)

The state with the most electoral college votes is a deep shade of blue. Californians have given the Democratic candidate more than 60% of the vote in each of the previous four elections, while a Republican nominee hasn't captured the state since 1988.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The metrics agree: Trump has no chance at winning California. And while the Dem odds moving from -10000 to -5000 made this an interesting play in our previous update, the shift back to unplayable territory has vaporized the value.

Colorado

Electoral College Votes: 10 (⬆️ 1)

Colorado has seen a dramatic increase in electoral college votes over the years (from 6 in 1968 to 10 in 2024) thanks to one of the fastest-growing populations in the U.S. And that's bad news for the Republicans, with the Centennial State voting blue at a record 55.4% majority in 2020. Democrats have won Colorado in each of the previous four elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Colorado will remain a Democrat stronghold, and we now see Silver's projections producing nearly an identical shot of a Dem victory as the implied odds probability thanks to a heft gain since early August.

Connecticut

Electoral College Votes: 7

Despite Biden's obvious struggles during the June 27 presidential debate, Democrats likely needn't worry about losing this traditional blue state. Democratic candidates have earned no less than 54 percent of the vote in every election since 1992, following five consecutive terms of Republican rule.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The presidential betting odds and Silver projections nearly land on the exact same chance of a Democratic victory – and it's quite close to 100 percent in both cases. This is one of the safest states on the board.

Delaware

Electoral College Votes: 3

Delaware residents have sided with the Democrats in emphatic fashion for more than three decades, and oddsmakers aren't expecting that to change in 2024. Biden earned nearly 59% of the vote in 2020 compared with just 39.8% for Trump; those numbers are nearly identical to the 2012 results, while 2008 saw a whopping 24.9% gap between the parties.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Don't expect any drama here on Election Night, with the Democrats firmly in control of the betting odds and Silver's model projecting an easy night in Delaware for Harris.

Florida

Electoral College Votes: 30 (⬆️ 1)

Florida gains an electoral college vote in 2024 – and while the odds here aren't quite as pronounced as they are for other southern and midwest states, anything but a comfortable Republican victory will be seen as an upset. Trump earned 51.2% of the vote four years ago, the most successful showing by the GOP in the Sunshine State since 2004.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's a subsection of Harris supporters who believe that Florida could be in play – but the betting odds and Silver projections disagree vehemently, with the Republicans gaining an additional 25 points since early August. This is now a very strong Republican betting play.

Georgia

Electoral College Votes: 16

Biden and the Democrats shocked the country last time out, ending a period of Republican dominance that had extended back to 1996. But the margin was an infinitesimal 0.2% – and oddsmakers aren't buying a repeat performance in 2024.

The biggest X-factor for the Democrats last time out was a groundswell of support from voters who had previously cast their ballots for alternate parties. Trump saw the Republican vote share shrink by just 1.5% from 2020, while Biden enjoyed a boost of nearly 4%.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Silver projections that have caught my eye. With the way the other swing states are trending, the Republicans need Georgia – and with the edge still a sturdy 22 points, the GOP are probably breathing a momentary sigh of relief.

Hawaii

Electoral College Votes: 4

You'll have a hard time convincing even the most optimistic Republican voter that Hawaii has a shot at turning red. The Dems have seen at least 62.2% of the vote in each of the past four presidential elections (including figures north of 70% in 2008 and 2012). A Republican hasn't won here since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The odds have re-adjusted back toward the Democrats following a slight bump for the GOP in early July; Silver's projections suggest the Dems are in for a one-sided victory in The Aloha State.

Idaho

Electoral College Votes: 4

It's a little surprising that the Republicans aren't getting even lower odds here given just how dominant the party has been. Trump finished with an edge of more than 30% over Biden in 2020, the third consecutive presidential election in which the Republicans have finished with that large of an advantage. No Democrat has prevailed in Idaho since 1964.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Nothing to see here, especially if you're a Democratic voter. These points are in the bag for the GOP.

Illinois

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)

Oddsmakers expect The Illini State to run blue for the ninth consecutive presidential election, and that should surprise no one given the Democratic margin of victory four years ago. Biden finished with an edge of nearly 17% over Trump in 2020, the fourth straight time the Democrats have earned more than 55% of the vote in Illinois.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Despite being surrounded on all sides by states expected to endorse Trump for president, Illinois is firmly Democratic according to both metrics – but that lost electoral college vote might loom large.

Indiana

Electoral College Votes: 11

The Hoosier State has been a Republican stronghold for the better part of 80 years, with only two Democratic wins in that span: Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Barack Obama in 2008. Don't expect a third blue wave this time around after Trump coasted to a 16% victory in 2020. Oddsmakers predict a similar result this November.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Those in areas where political wagering is legal might not have had the stomach for a -5000 play, but it was much better than what they're presented with now. Even a bridge jumper bet is unfeasible here.

Iowa

Electoral College Votes: 6

The Republicans have taken hold in an area that has seen more back-and-forth voting trends than the majority of U.S. states. Democrats and the GOP have split the previous 12 elections, with Iowa voting blue in six of seven presidential elections prior to the Republicans' back-to-back successes in 2016 and 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: That Saturday night poll result from the Register sent the Republicans' odds skyrocketing from -3300 to -450 (and the Democrats' odds tumbling from +1400 to +333). It only moved the implied probability about 16 points, and Silver adjusted his projections accordingly, but this one is still heavily skewed to the GOP.

Kansas

Electoral College Votes: 6

Kansans are a consistent bunch when it comes to which presidential candidate to back. Trump was an emphatic winner in 2020 with a final margin of nearly 15% over Biden, the 14th straight time Kansas has voted red. But Biden narrowed the gap four years ago, with Hilary Clinton losing to Trump by a whopping 20.6% in 2016.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I predicted we would see Trump at -5000 range or shorter by early August. I was more than a month late, and so, too, was Kansas' eventual move to the -10000 range (other one-sided states flipped to five digits in a recent update.)

Kentucky

Electoral College Votes: 8

Kentucky is another Republican-dominant state that had initially carried odds that seemed a little too generous for the Democrats. Kentuckians have sided with the GOP at a 60.5% clip or higher in three consecutive presidential elections, with Trump earning 62.1% of the vote in 2020. Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win here, doing so in 1992 and again in 1996.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Kentucky (where the GOP were actually as low as -2500 at one point) is a great example of how dramatically the odds can shift – and why those interested in getting maximum value need to jump on any one-sided markets still offering reasonable payouts.

Louisiana

Electoral College Votes: 8

Given recent history, it's hard to believe that a Republican candidate went 80 years between wins in Louisiana from 1876 to 1956. The tide has been turning significantly in the Bayou State, with the GOP winning the state in nine of the previous 11 presidential elections. Trump won with ease in 2020, earning 58.5% of the vote compared with just 39.9% for Biden.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Based on both the odds and Silver's projections, Louisiana might see a 20% gap between Trump and Harris, which would surpass Trump's margin of victory from four years ago. These eight electoral college votes are as secure as they come for the GOP.

Maine (statewide)*

Electoral College Votes: 2

Maine (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Maine (Congressional District 2)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Oddsmakers anticipate a split in the congressional district vote for the third straight year, but the Democrats are expected to pick up the additional two votes for winning the overall state. Biden did so comfortably in 2020, beating Trump by more than 9%. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last Republican candidate to earn the majority vote.

* Maine is worth two votes as a state; each district is worth one additional vote.

Maryland

Electoral College Votes: 10

If recent history is any indication, this could be one of the most one-sided state results on election night. Biden received more than twice the vote tally of Trump in 2020, extending a trend that's seen the Democratic candidate secure more than 60% of the vote in Maryland each of the previous four presidential elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Democrats have this one sewn up – and betting markets aren't taking any chances here, pricing the favorites pretty much out of reasonable consideration.

Massachusetts

Electoral College Votes: 11

Another northeastern U.S. state, another expected landslide for the incumbent. Biden is coming off a staggering 32.5% margin of victory over Trump in 2020, the biggest-ever Democratic win in Massachusetts and the seventh straight time the party has earned at least 59.8% of the overall vote shares.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The emergence of Harris as a much-needed jolt to the Democratic campaign has helped solidify the party's dominance in Massachusetts. The Dems should roll to victory yet again.

Michigan

Electoral College Votes: 15 (⬇️ 1)

Michigan might not possess the electoral college clout of years past, dropping to 15 votes ahead of the 2024 election after reaching a high watermark of 21 in the 1970s. But that still represents a critical share in the quest to reach 270.

Trump's dramatic flip of Michigan in 2016 was a catalyst for his stunning upset of Hilary Clinton. But Biden returned the favor in 2020, and Harris's incredible surge has given the Democrats the inside track in one of the most important battlegrounds of the 2024 presidential campaign.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The sports betting sites and Silver are finally more closely aligned here after weeks of being intriguingly far apart on the Dems' chances. Both now like Harris to capture this pivotal swing state, which is sure to have the Democrats feeling good.

Minnesota

Electoral College Votes: 10

Minnesota's electoral college history is a fascinating one. While the Democrats have dominated the final results, earning the victory in 12 consecutive presidential elections, the margins of victory have been considerably thinner than other states with one-sided results. Biden finished with a 7.1% edge over Trump in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I said in my Aug. 5 update that Democrat supporters in legal jurisdictions would be wise to jump on what were +550 odds of a blue win. I hope those bettors listened: That number is long gone, and it's not coming back.

Mississippi

Electoral College Votes: 6

Another state that saw more than 80 years of Democrat dominance at one point, Mississippi has been decisively Republican for more than four decades now. Trump has enjoyed nearly 58% of the vote across his two presidential runs, while the Democrats haven't exceeded 44% since 1996. Carter was the last Democrat to taste victory here in 1976.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's a slight gap in Trump's probability of victory between the betting odds and Silver projections – and that discrepancy has been in place for a while now. But both numbers are high enough that this outcome is almost certainly locked in.

Missouri

Electoral College Votes: 10

It wasn't long ago that the Democratic and Republican votes were split almost right down the middle (2008, to be precise, when the Dems earned a narrow 0.1% win over the GOP). Fast forward 15 years, and the Republicans are expected to cruise to a seventh consecutive victory in Missouri following Trump's 15.4% margin of victory in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The betting value had returned – at least for those content with laying a lot to win a little – after the Republicans were installed at -15000 at the last update. But with the -5000 now gone, we're back to ignoring this one.

Montana

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬆️ 1)

Democrats will almost certainly lose out on an additional electoral college vote in Montana, which sees an increase from three to four in 2024. Only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the state since 1968, and Trump had little trouble dispatching Biden after securing nearly 57% of the vote four years ago.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's really not much that Harris and Co. can do here. Montana is a deep shade of red, and the most recent odds, projections and polling data spell out another one-sided win for the Republicans this November.

Nebraska (statewide)*

Electoral College Votes: 2

Nebraska (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Nebraska (Congressional District 2)

Electoral College Votes: 1

Nebraska (Congressional District 3)*

Electoral College Votes: 1

Democrats have struggled mightily in Nebraska since the state opted to divide its electoral college votes between three congressional districts. The Dems have managed a single vote just twice during that span (2008 and 2020), and oddsmakers believe that trend will continue in 2024. The Democrats are expected to take District 2, but have no shot in the other two.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: With Trump sitting north of 99% in Silver's projections in Districts 1 and 3, it would take an incredible unforeseen event for the Republicans to fall short of a majority of electoral college votes in Nebraska.

* Nebraska is worth two votes as a state; each district is worth one additional vote.

Nevada

Electoral College Votes: 6

Generally, as Nevada goes, so does the presidency: Over the past 11 elections, the winning party in the Silver State has secured the White House 10 times. The only exception? 2016, when Clinton won Nevada by 2.4% but ultimately lost the presidential race to Trump.

Biden gave the Democrats their fourth consecutive win in Nevada with an identical margin of victory in 2020, and the latest Nate Silver projections have Harris with a slight edge in her quest to pick up Nevada's half-dozen electoral college votes. This could be one of the most divisive battleground states in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver has this one as close to a coin flip – and that's news to the sportsbooks, who have vaulted the Republicans from a slight underdog in the previous update to a surprisingly comfortable favorite here. Democrat bettors, this might be your best shot at a high-level value play.

New Hampshire

Electoral College Votes: 4

The Dems should feel good about their chances of retaining the presidential majority in New Hampshire, though recent close calls have the odds much closer than in most Democratic strongholds. Biden won comfortably in 2020, but Clinton's 0.3% sweat in 2016 and a slim 1.3% triumph in 2004 do little to allay the potential for a Republican surge.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: What's happening in New Hampshire? An 8.5% swing in the Silver projections since the previous update have moved the Republicans from long shot to live underdog. This one is still heavily skewed toward Harris, but it's by no means the sure thing it was a short time ago.

New Jersey

Electoral College Votes: 14

New Jersey has been a model of consistency when it comes to recent presidential voting habits. The victorious Democrats have pulled in between 56% and 58.5% of the overall vote in five of the previous six elections, fueling a run of eight straight wins for the blue side. The once-mighty Republican territory is widely expected to go to the Dems again in 2024.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The previous update saw Silver much more bullish on a Democratic win than the sportsbooks, but that gap is now gone (sorry, Dem bettors). NJ is going blue again in a big way this November.

New Mexico

Electoral College Votes: 5

The Land of Enchantment has been anything but for the Republicans, who haven't sniffed victory in New Mexico in 20 years. Biden's 10.8% margin of victory was the second-largest over that span, and it eased any concerns over Clinton failing to gain 50% support four years earlier. Trump has picked up just 40.0% and 43.5% support in New Mexico in his two runs.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Those in legal betting regions might want to consider taking advantage of Trump's unpopularity in New Mexico. Voters there have treated him coolly in two elections, and it's looking likely to happen again.

New York

Electoral College Votes: 28 (⬇️ 1)

Not only have the Democrats won the last nine elections in NY, six of those victories have come by 20% or more. That includes Biden's decisive win in 2020, when he earned 60.9% of the vote to trounce Trump (37.8%).

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Given where Silver's projections have landed, and New York's history of supporting the Dems, it's stunning that it took until early September for the odds to extend past -2000 in the favorites' favor.

North Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 16 (⬆️ 1)

Can the Democrats reclaim North Carolina? Oddsmakers and Silver are skeptical despite Biden gaining an additional 2.4% over Clinton's 2016 showing. They are, however, a lot more optimistic since the last update, with the Dems seeing a 28% bump since mid-July.

Republicans have captured the majority of the presidential vote in North Carolina in 10 of the past 11 elections, but the last four races have been among the closest in the country. Trump needs a North Carolina victory, and oddsmakers believe he'll get it – for now.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Trump's advantage is sneaking back toward where it was a month ago, snuffing out a spirited Democrat rally and making the GOP bet here one of the best on the board as of now.

North Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3

You won't find many states more secure for the Republican Party than this one. Not only has the GOP earned the presidential vote in North Dakota during 20 of the previous 21 elections, but Trump absolutely eviscerated the Democrats in both 2016 and 2020, beating Clinton by nearly 36 percentage points and besting Biden by 33.3%.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver has projected North Dakota to once again have one of the widest margins of victory for the Republicans – and while the state is only worth three votes, the security of such a big win has to please the GOP.

Ohio

Electoral College Votes: 18 (⬇️ 1)

Ohio has been one of the most fascinating battleground states in the U.S. for some time. Biden's 2020 presidential win marked the first time in 14 elections that the winner of Ohio did not go on to capture the presidency (in this case, Trump). The long-term trend bodes well for Trump, who beat both Clinton and Biden by 8.1% in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Republicans have a stranglehold on Ohio, with both sets of probabilities now sitting north of 96%. It's quite possible that Trump will fare even better here in 2024 than he did in either of his previous two presidential runs.

Oklahoma

Electoral College Votes: 7

The Democrats likely won't come anywhere close to being competitive here. Trump has racked up more than 65% of the vote in back-to-back presidential elections, and the Republican Party has surpassed that threshold five straight times overall. No Democrat has won Oklahoma since 1964.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Based on what we're seeing from Silver's projections, we shouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma is called for Trump based on the lowest percentage of counted ballots. Could he earn 70% of the votes? It's possible.

Oregon

Electoral College Votes: 8 (⬆️ 1)

The Pacific Northwest is Biden Country, and the 2024 election should result in an extension of the Democrats' dominance in the region. Biden breezed to a win of nearly 16 percentage points in 2020, the largest margin of victory in Oregon since 2008. No Republican candidate has finished within double digits of his Democratic counterpart since 2004.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: With one-sided numbers attached to the odds and Silver's most up-to-date projections, it sure seems that Dem win in Oregon can be written in permanent marker.

Pennsylvania

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)

Once a political powerhouse with 38 electoral college votes, Pennsylvania is down to half that number. But make no mistake, locking down this state will go a long way toward Harris or Trump securing the presidency. And this battle is a tight one as of late August.

Biden responded to Trump flipping Pennsylvania red for the first time since 1988 by earning 50.0% of the vote to narrowly fend off his GOP rival; Trump was favored to flip the state back as of mid-July, but Harris's emergence has changed things significantly. This state has produced some of the closest races on Election Day, and 2024 looks to be no different.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Sportsbooks and Silver both have the Republicans back as the favorites – and that means big profit potential if you're a Democrat bettor who believes that Harris is primed to pull this one out. Regardless of how you feel, few will argue against Pennsylvania being the most important state in the electoral college.

Rhode Island

Electoral College Votes: 4

Nearly 100 years of Democratic superiority in Rhode Island is expected to continue into this year's presidential election. Democrats have won the previous nine times in the smallest state in the union, with no Republican candidate earning more than 38.9% of the vote since 1988. Biden earned a resounding 21% win over Trump last election.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's little doubt how the Rhode Island vote will play out; in fact, Silver projects that the state will produce the ninth-largest margin of victory among Democratic victories.

South Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 9

A Democrat hasn't declared victory in South Carolina since Jimmy Carter, and it doesn't appear as if that streak will end in 2024. Trump waltzed to double-digit victories over Clinton and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively, and the state hasn't seen a truly close finish since 1980, when Ronald Reagan notched a tight 1.6 percentage-point win over Carter.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I predicted that we would see the Republican odds of a South Carolina victory climb into the -4000 range after sitting at -2500 in our July update. The latest odds exceed even my most bullish expectations.

South Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3

It's OK if you don't remember the last time a Democrat won South Dakota. You probably weren't alive to see it. Republicans have earned every electoral college vote in South Dakota since 1968, and the last three Democratic presidential candidates haven't earned 40% of the vote. Trump exceeded 61% in both of his wins here.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: South Dakota is one of nine U.S. states where Silver is projecting a Republican victory of more than 25 points. And books are wise to this, having dropped the GOP odds into unplayable territory.

Tennessee

Electoral College Votes: 11

The security of locking down a state with double-digit electoral college votes is sure to hearten the Republicans. Trump coasted to the win with identical 60.7% vote shares vs. Clinton and Biden, and it's reasonable to expect the 2024 number to land in the same area. The GOP has recorded a 20-point win over the Democrats in three straight elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: This is one of only a handful of states where both the odds and Silver's projections have Trump winning this state more than 99 times out of 100. I'd be so bold to make that an even 100% – and based on implied probability, we're alllllmost there.

Texas

Electoral College Votes: 40 (⬆️ 2)

A two-point increase in Texas' electoral college vote is a significant development that gives the Republican Party even more of an edge in the southern states. But it's notable that the Democrats have made major inroads in recent years, from 38% of the vote in 2000 to the 46.5% that Biden secured in his 2020 head-to-head with Trump.

However, Texas isn't quite in "battleground territory" yet. Republicans have won here in every election since 1980, and if the Lone Star State's population continues to grow at this rate, Texas will become an even more valuable piece in the Republicans' presidential strategy.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Here is a bridge jumper bet to consider. It's highly likely that the Republicans will hold on to The Lone Star State, and with the GOP odds considerably friendlier than the majority of Republican strongholds, there's a little money to be made here.

Utah

Electoral College Votes: 6

Utah's presidential voting results have been a legitimate mixed bag for the heavily favored Republicans. On one hand, the Democrats still can't seem to get more than 38% of the support in the Mormon-heavy state. But a Republican Party that routinely drew more than 70% of the vote before Trump saw its candidate earn just 45.5% in 2016 and 58.1% in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Utah natives might not be ga-ga for Trump, but they're making it increasingly clear that they're no fans of the Democrats, who have made up virtually no ground since making the switch from Biden to Harris.

Vermont

Electoral College Votes: 3

The Green Mountain State has become one of the Democratic Party's most devoted allies. Three of the previous four Democratic candidates have earned at least 66.1% of the vote. That includes Biden, who landed on that number en route to a 35.4% margin of victory over Trump. These might be Biden's most secure electoral college votes of all.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: At least bridge jumper bettors had something worth investing in when the Democrats were -3300 following our late-August update. This latest odds move has the Dems completely out of play.

Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 13

Virginia is one of only a handful of U.S. states that has experienced a recent seismic shift in its presidential loyalties. After being a predominantly red haven from 1952 to 2004, Virginia embraced Barack Obama in consecutive elections and remained faithful to the Democrats in each of the next two elections. Biden recorded a 10-point win over Trump in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Though the Democrats were as low as -240 at the beginning of August, their probability of victory is still far outpacing their implied odds probability – meaning there's strong value on a Democrat wager.

Washington

Electoral College Votes: 13

The West Coast loves its Democratic presidential nominees, and Washington, in particular, has thrown plenty of support toward the blue. Biden finished nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Trump in the 2020 election, extending the Democrats' foothold in Washington State to 32 years (and likely counting, given where the oddsmakers stand).

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: We saw Trump and the GOP make some inroads based on movement in the odds and Silver projections, but with the Democratic stronghold now back to 99%+ in both areas, it almost certainly won't matter.

Washington, D.C.

Electoral College Votes: 3

If you can call any of the electoral college votes "freebies" for either party, DC is as automatic as it gets for the Democrats. No Republican candidate has received more than 10 percentage points of support in the district since 1988. Biden's 92.2 percent vote share in 2020 was the second-highest in history, behind only the 92.5% that Obama secured in 2008.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: It's the surest bet on the map. Silver is projecting that the Democrats will win the U.S. capital by a whopping 78.1%. Whatever the number you're getting on the Democrats, you're going to make a profit – but for perspective, a $100 bet on the Dems will net you a cool 50 cents.

West Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬇️ 1)

The only good news to come out of West Virginia in 2020 was that Biden stemmed the tide of the Democrats losing presidential vote share following a five-election slide. But that victory rang hollow for the Dems, who were soundly routed when Trump (68.6%) notched nearly a 40-point win. Republicans have claimed West Virginia in six straight elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver is expecting yet another Republican rout – and it appears likelier by the day that the margin of victory will be closer to the 2016 result.

Wisconsin

Electoral College Votes: 10

Ten of the most important electoral college votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will come courtesy of The Badger State. And as with the previous two elections, the party that ultimately prevails here will probably do so by the slimmest of margins. 

Just seven tenths of a percentage point has decided the last two Wisconsin verdicts, with Trump pulling off the upset in 2016 and Biden returning the state to the Dems in 2020. Wisconsin was even tighter than that earlier in the century, with the 2000 election gap just 0.2% and the 2004 election seeing a four-tenths gap.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver gives Wisconsin the fourth-highest chance of tipping the election – and with Michigan (ranked No. 3 on the tipping list) also blue at the moment, the Democrats have to be happy to still be holding a slim lead here.

Wyoming

Electoral College Votes: 3

Don't expect any drama in Wyoming, which has been under Republican control in presidential voting since 1964. And while Biden closed the gap here by a notable margin over Clinton, he still finished an incredible 43.3% behind a victorious Trump. Republicans have earned a minimum of 64.8% of the vote in Wyoming during each of the past six elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: No individual state is expected to have a larger Republican margin of victory than Wyoming; Silver predicts a Trump victory of more than 43 points there. Lock these three votes in for the GOP.

2020 electoral college results

The 2020 presidential election saw Biden win a total of 306 electoral votes, easily surpassing the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. Trump garnered 232 electoral votes. The outcome was largely influenced by Biden's success in flipping several key battleground states that Trump had won in the 2016 election, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, was particularly crucial, pushing Biden past the required 270 threshold. His wins in Michigan (16 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) also contributed significantly to his total. Additionally, Biden's win in traditionally Republican-leaning states like Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes) demonstrated his broad appeal and the shifting political landscape in these regions.

The 2020 election was marked by unprecedented voter turnout and a significant number of mail-in ballots, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This led to a prolonged vote-counting process, particularly in the key swing states. Despite numerous legal challenges and claims of electoral fraud by President Trump and his allies, the results were certified by each state.

The Electoral College formally cast its votes on Dec. 2020, affirming Biden's win, which was subsequently confirmed by Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, following the certification process.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump is a -138 favorite to return to the Oval Office, while Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris sits at +120 in the latest 2024 U.S. presidential election odds.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)