Presidential Election Betting Odds 2024: Trump No Longer a Unanimous Favorite

The 2024 U.S. presidential election odds put the candidates in a nearly dead-even race at our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) prior to November's election.

Joe Biden's aviators are on and fully fastened in the flight position, and he's coming in hot.

Biden has kept progressing steadily on the oddsboards at our best sports betting sites ahead of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. He was the struggling incumbent getting buried in both the odds and polls not long ago in late winter. Now there's been a monumental development.

One of our best live betting sites is listing Biden as the favorite over Donald Trump, meaning he's gone from being a faraway challenger to a narrow favorite. The Donald Trump odds still give him a slight edge elsewhere, but a once dominant lead has evaporated.

That is all coming as the Stormy Daniels trial keeps chugging along. Is this a spring swoon from Trump? Or a sign of what's to come given his many legal issues?

Here's our look at the top 2024 U.S. presidential election odds (odds available only from Ontario sports betting sites).

2024 presidential election betting odds

(U.S. presidential election odds as of April 30)

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Latest presidential election odds updates 2024

• April 30, 2024: A second week of testimony in the hush-money trial begins. First up is Gary Farro, an ex-banker for Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer. Farro discussed being misled about the purpose of a shell company, which Cohen set up as a way to hide a $130,000 hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels.
• April 30, 2024: Also testifying was Keith Davison, the lawyer for Daniels who detailed the agreement he made with the National Enquirer on behalf of Daniels.
• April 22, 2024: Opening statements are being made in the hush-money trial, with the prosecution saying a scheme began in 2015, shortly after Trump announced his candidacy to run in the 2016 election.
• April 21, 2024: Michael Avenatti, who was once Stormy Daniels' attorney, wants to testify in favor of Trump in the hush-money trial, and he recently told the New York Post that the defense has contacted him. Avenatti is currently serving a 19-year jail sentence for extortion, tax evasion, fraud, embezzlement, and other federal crimes.
• April 15, 2024: The Stormy Daniels hush-money case begins with jury selection, a process that could take up to two weeks due to the 96-person jury pool. It's now officially the first time a former president has faced criminal charges. Trump needs to be present for the trial, which will clearly hurt his campaign efforts. The trial will take place four days per week and is expected to last roughly eight weeks.
• April 7, 2024: Several new polls show the candidates are in a statistical dead heat. That includes a Marist poll, which shows Biden holding a two-point lead. Also and maybe more importantly at this stage, 40% of respondents to a different question on the same poll said they're open to changing their mind.
• April 2, 2024: Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. calls Biden a "much worse threat to democracy" than Trump, citing a Supreme Court case that will gauge how much the government can pressure social media companies to remove false posts (on theories tied to COVID-19, for example). However, while making that remark, Kennedy didn't comment on the many court cases tied to Trump, which include attempts to overturn the 2020 election result.
• March 29, 2024: The polling shift for Biden continues, with a Morning Consult poll showing him sitting in a good spot again while two percentage points ahead of Trump. The same poll showed Trump holding as much as a six-point lead not long ago in early March.
• March 25, 2024: Merchan's ruling came on the same day that a separate appeals court reduced Trump's immediate payment for a civil fraud penalty from $454 million to $175 million. Trump, who has built his brand mostly off of his elite status and extreme wealth, could have had his properties seized without the reduction.
• March 22, 2024: Biden continues to trail notably in polls, with the most recent one from Activote showing over a five-point advantage for Trump.
• March 20, 2024: Trump is struggling to finalize a payment for his $464-million civil fraud penalty that's the result of a ruling from late February. He needs to post a bond before a March 25 deadline, and in a filing his attorneys called doing that a "practicle impossibility." Failing to do so could result in the state of New York seizing some of Trump's bank accounts or properties.
• March 12, 2024: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who's well-known for his authoritarian policies, says after meeting with Trump that the Republican candidate would cut off military funding and "not give a penny" to Ukraine if re-elected.
• March 11, 2024: Alabama senator Katie Britt gave the rebuttal to Trump's State of the Union address for the Republicans, and she continues to face a backlash regarding an apparently distorted story told about a young woman who was sex trafficked. Britt used the story to criticize Biden's border policies. However, Jacinto Romero, the trafficking victim, said it took place in Mexico between 2004 and 2008 and not in America. That was also when Republican George W. Bush was president.
• March 5, 2024: Mitch McConnell endorses Trump following the candidate's dominance on Super Tuesday, saying he looks forward to working with the former president again. The two have often sparred publicly, making this endorsement even more significant.
• March 5, 2024: Haley gave a speech in her home state of South Carolina while officially dropping out. She didn't endorse Trump, instead saying "I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be president."
• March 4, 2024: A ruling that felt inevitable was made official, with the Supreme Court ruling that Trump can stay on the ballot in Colorado. The state's highest court had ruled to remove Trump in a case that leaned on the "insurrectionist clause" included in the 14th Amendment. However, during deliberations in February, it became clear that the Supreme Court judges were skeptical of how far-reaching a state's power could be in this instance. Even the liberal-leaning judges joined that chorus, resulting in a unanimous 9-0 vote in favor of keeping Trump on the ballot. The decision is a massive win for Trump, as the case was the most significant legal election hurdle he faced, though other criminal proceedings are ongoing.
• Feb. 27, 2024: Biden speaks at the border and challenges Trump to back a bill that would improve border security. "Instead of playing politics with the issue, join me, or I’ll join you in telling the Congress to pass this bill," he said. "You know and I know it’s the toughest, most efficient, most effective border security bill this country’s ever seen.”
• Feb. 26, 2024: Haley has repeatedly said that she's staying in the race at least through Super Tuesday. However, it's often true that a lack of funds forces candidates to drop out more so than poor results. If that's the case in 2024, then Haley has been dealt multiple massive financial blows since the South Carolina loss, including billionaires Reid Hoffman and Charles Koch pulling their funding.
• Feb. 20, 2024: Biden was asked if he would rather run against Trump or Haley. The president nonchalantly waved off the question and said "I don't care."
• Feb. 19, 2024: Haley remains steadfast in her determination to continue in the Republican race despite being far behind in polling and trailing 63.5% to 33.5% in South Carolina. She said that many members of her party who now embrace Trump publicly dread him privately. Haley added that she doesn't fear retribution from Trump and feels no need to "kiss the ring."
• Feb. 12, 2024: Who would've thought the Super Bowl would be a stomping ground for seeing the odds swing for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? After the Super Bowl, Biden sent a tweet out that did not age well with the public for various reasons. Also, independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. saw a Super Bowl advertisement that drew some controversy regarding the use of his family's images. As a result, Biden's odds have lengthened while Kennedy, Obama, and Newsom all saw their odds shorten.
• Feb. 9, 2024: Biden's age is now becoming a concern for voters, which has seen the odds move accordingly for both him and Michelle Obama. Robert Hur's report, which was released Thursday, asserted that Biden was elderly and forgetful. This comes on the heels of Biden referring to the Egyptian president as Mexico's and confusing recent European leader names with those he interacted with in the 1980s.
• Feb. 5, 2024: Biden destroyed the South Carolina primary playing field with an overly impressive 96.2% of the votes to secure 55 delegates. Dean Phillips saw his odds lengthen over the weekend as he secured only 1.7% of votes.
• Jan. 29, 2024: There hasn't been much news over the last week, with the South Carolina primaries coming up for the Democratic party on Feb. 3, 2024. For the Republicans, Trump currently leads with 35 of the needed 1,215 to win the nomination. Hayley is behind Trump with 17 delegates.
• Jan. 23, 2024: The New Hampshire primaries concluded Tuesday night with Trump and Biden win their respective party votes. Trump took over 50%, as did Biden, but Haley was able to secure six delegates with an impressive 44%.
• Jan. 21, 2024: DeSantis suspends his campaign and endorses Trump as the Republican nominee. The New Hampshire primaries on Jan. 23 will probably shift odds.
• Jan. 16, 2024: Trump took the Iowa caucus with ease on Monday night, winning over 50% of the vote while reeling in 20 delegates. The odds haven't shifted much, although bet365 did shorten DeSantis to 25/1 after he placed second despite Haley's recent push.
• Jan. 15, 2024: Florida Senator Marco Rubio recently endorsed Trump. That's surprising because Haley, who endorsed Rubio in 2016, has been climbing the odds to possibly challenge Trump in the Republican primaries. The odds haven't experienced much movement, as oddsmakers believe Haley is still a great pick should Trump not run for any reason.
• Jan. 8, 2024: The big news entering the new year is out of Maine and Colorado. The ripple effect is taking place as everyone awaits the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court. Maine's Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is facing a possible though highly unlikely impeachment for removing Trump's name from the voting ballot. Meanwhile, Trump himself is warning about "big trouble" if Maine and Colorado leave him off the ballot. All while this is going on, both Haley's and Vivek Ramaswamy's odds for the Republican party continue to grow closer to Trump's price. We'll await the U.S. Supreme Court decision, but it appears Haley or Ramaswamy could threaten Trump for the Republican nomination.

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Favorites to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Trump is in one very familiar place these days while spending a whole lot of time in a courtroom. But he's facing unfamiliar territory on the oddsboard: second place.

BetVictor is slotting Biden ahead of Trump. The president's lead is razor-thin, but a lead at all through any book is massive after Biden was in such a deep hole as recently as early March.

The incumbent was listed as long as +185 through BetMGM on the day after Super Tuesday. And he was still at +165 through DraftKings even during the last week of March. Caesars is posting a rogue short price on Trump that's out of line with the rest of the market, as is its habit. But even that price has lengthened notably over the past week, going from -160 to -145.

In a short time for a political campaign, we've gone from one candidate thoroughly dominating to the race being a true dead-heat and a tossup.

However, it's been a two-candidate competition for a while, and officially since shortly after Super Tuesday. The prices for those beyond Biden and Trump on the board indicate both the books and the public agree on that reality.

But the Michelle Obama odds still curiously sit far ahead of actual active politicians, and her prices have even been shortening considerably at some books while plunging from around +2500 to +1600. She's never been in the race in any capacity and has expressed no public interest in the presidency. In early March a representative from her office even emphatically said Obama won't be running.

Meanwhile, a looming question hovers over both the election campaign, and by extension the U.S. Presidential election odds from our best sports betting apps: How much will voters care about Trump's legal issues come election day?

A recent Ipsos poll showed that a significant portion of respondents said the results of the hush-money trial (42%) and the potential election subversion case (44%) wouldn't impact their likelihood of voting for Trump in either direction.

Still, a basic yet core aim during a campaign is to keep your name in the headlines for positive reasons, and to minimize negativity. Trump certainly isn't positioned to do either.

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Trump has been the front-runner for months, with his lead peaking just prior to Super Tuesday.

However, that gap has been steadily eroding since, with Biden building momentum beginning with his strong State of the Union speech. The inevitable negativity tied to Trump's courtroom dealings has also been following him, resulting in his lead by the odds and in the polls slipping away almost entirely.

Candidates ride waves amid a long campaign, and this election year feels even longer than most after neither candidate faced anything close to a challenge during the primary season. But Trump's legal issues make this campaign unique. At worst, the rulings and general poor press will drag him down. And even at best, needing to attend the proceedings takes him away from the raucous crowds at rallies where he thrives.

Best odds: +120 via BetVictor

Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Biden's main problem is one he can't control. Time comes for us all, and Biden can't change the fact that he was born a long time ago.

He's already the oldest-ever president, and the incumbant will turn 82 years old shortly after election day. Based on that alone, there's consistent concern about asking him to do such a demanding job for four more years. An Ipsos poll showed that 86% of respondents think Biden is too old to serve another term. The same question was asked about Trump, who's not much younger and turns 78 in June, and a much lower 62% think he's too elderly.

Nonetheless, Biden has kept creeping up toward Trump on the oddsboard, and there's an opportunity for him to continue that run with his challenger in the courtroom so much. He holds slim yet encouraging leads in some recent polls, including a late April Ipsos poll showing Biden with a one-point advantage.

But Biden's unpopularity among voters remains low, with his approval rating at just 39.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Best odds: +110 via bet365

Michelle Obama's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election

The former first lady's continued presence so high up the oddsboard remains baffling.

Yes, it's mostly a product of Biden's unpopularity and concerns about his age and fitness for office. Those two elements combine to make people get, well, let's call it creative.

But brewing up possible candidates who could parachute into the election campaign was good fun earlier in 2024 when, in theory, someone like Obama would have the time and runway to build the apparatus needed to run. That includes funding and staffing in key battleground states.

Even if we set aside that Obama has explicitly said she's not running, the train to do so has long left the station. And yet she's still third on the oddsboard, and ahead of an actual candidate in Robert Kennedy Jr.

Best odds: +1800 via BetMGM

Republican vice presidential candidate odds

Attention is turning to who will be Trump's running mate. Kamala Harris remains in place alongside Biden on the Democratic side.

Mike Pence served as the vice president during Trump's first term.

Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, and Vivek Ramaswamy were once the front-runners here. But they've fallen off and given way to Tim Scott and Tulsi Gabbard.

Scott holds a sizable lead over Gabbard at our best Ontario sports betting apps, and the rest of the field is significantly behind those two.

A rising senator from South Carolina, Scott hails from a state where Trump maintains a strong base. He took 55.1% of the vote there against Biden in 2020, and the eventual next president was far back at 43.43%.

Scott has long been one of Trump's leading surrogates on the campaign trail. He was a candidate himself briefly, but then endorsed Trump immediately upon dropping out of the race. Trump has said Scott is far better at running in support of the former president than he is at running for himself.

Presidential election odds: Non-political candidates

The 2024 election could feature the most prominent third-party candidate in 32 years. Robert Kennedy Jr. holds a legitimate chance to steal votes from each major party candidate and make a serious impact, which both Trump and Biden have acknowledged.

His main role will be that of disruptor and vote-splitter though, as Kennedy's odds remain lengthy.

2024 president prediction

There's still a long, meandering road ahead to election day. That journey may seem even longer in 2024 because the primary process ended much earlier than usual. The top candidates from both sides went into general election campaigning mode earlier, and far ahead of the Democratic and Republican conventions.

That's important to note when trying to forecast a rematch between two candidates who are prone to public stumbles of various kinds. Let that function as a caveat here, because plenty can happen to disrupt the trajectories of Trump and Biden.

However, Biden's path is increasingly feeling like a difficult one for someone who isn't as nimble at the stump as in past years. Public perception about his age and the economy have been hardening. It's certainly possible he can still function at a high level while aging, and the economy has been rebounding for a while. But polls repeatedly show voters are stuck on a negative view of both, leading to a steep uphill battle for Biden. 

Combine his issues with Trump being well-positioned on the map to again earn an electoral college win even if he loses the popular vote, and it feels increasingly likely that Trump wins the 2024 presidency.

Winning party odds

Winning gender odds

U.S. presidential election winners

Trump was the first candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an election as the underdog. Trump was the heavy dog to Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Carter was a small dog to incumbent Gerald Ford in ‘76. Trump’s win is the clear outlier based on recent data, and going back as far as 1872, Trump was the second-biggest underdog to win a presidential election, behind only Harry Truman’s improbable defeat of Thomas Dewey in 1948 at +1500 odds.

Odds among the top candidates will move frequently until the election in November, but bettors should keep in mind that the favorite has won in 25 of the last 30 presidential elections.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump remains the betting favorite (+120) to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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