Trump vs. Harris Odds History: The Road to Election Day 2024

A long, winding road toward election day in America has reached its conclusion.

Our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) have been on that journey throughout, and there's still no overwhelming favorite even now in the hours before we'll begin to know voting results. The Kamala Harris odds (+150 through bet365) show a gap to Donald Trump (-175), who has been clawing back after losing ground over the weekend.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election odds keep reflecting a narrowing race, with the Donald Trump odds sometimes lengthening over the final week of campaigning. There's been a seesaw affair between the two candidates by the odds, and that will no doubt continue right up until polls begin to close. 

But amid the whirlwind of activity and as anticipation builds toward the results beginning to roll in tonight, it's important to look back and remember just how the odds at our political betting sites in Canada arrived at this point.

We'll start with first an overview of where the odds stand on election day at the best Ontario sports betting sites, and then gaze back at what's been a roller-coaster adventure.

It all began on June 27 when President Joe Biden endured perhaps the worst debate performance in presidential history, igniting a string of events that would soon lead to Harris taking over as the Democratic candidate.

United States presidential election betting odds

(Presidential election odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada. U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit the social sportsbook BetRivers.net, which is available in most U.S. states | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

Latest presidential election odds updates

• Nov. 4, 2024: Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent has long been known and respected as the state's foremost election prognosticator. During the 2022 midterms he correctly predicted that Joe Lombardo and Catherine Cortez Masto would become the governor and senator of the state, respectively, even though both entered with under a 2% chance to win. He's also correctly called the winner of the state in either a midterm or general election every time since 2010. So his prediction in Nevada, a crucial swing state, carries significant meaning. And he's calling for Harris to narrowly win the state and its six electoral college votes.
• Nov. 3, 2024: An Iowa poll is likely tied to Trump tumbling in the odds. It's important to be wary of rogue polls days before an election, though the highly respected Ann Selzer conducted this one for the Des Moines Register, and it shows Harris holding a three-point lead in a state that Trump carried by nearly 10% in 2020.
• Oct. 29, 2024: Biden attempts to backpedal after calling Trump's supporters "garbage" in reaction to a comment from a speaker recently at a Trump rally in New York. "Earlier today I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage, which is the only word I can think of to describe it," he posted on Twitter, via The Associated Press. "His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That's all I meant to say. The comments at that rally don't reflect who we are as a nation."
• Oct. 27, 2024: The candidates begin to make their closing arguments, and for Trump that means calling America an "occupied country" during a rally at Madison Square Garden.
• Oct. 22, 2024: Although Harris holds a decisive advantage overall in favorability rating, the two are combining for the worst such ratings among candidates since 1956, according to Gallup via The Hill.
• Oct. 21, 2024: Trump puts together a staged photo-op in which he worked in the kitchen at a McDonald's in Pennsylvania. He questioned whether Harris really worked at a McDonald's as a student, as her campaign has said. The Harris campaign responded, saying "when Trump feels desperate, all he knows how to do is lie," according to The Washington Post.
• Oct. 17, 2024: Some form of early voting is underway in most states, and it can function as a gauge of voter enthusiasm in a given election. And it seems there's plenty of eagerness to head to the polls, especially in the critical swing state of Georgia. Early voting there began on Oct. 15, and over 600,000 ballots had been cast two days later, according to The Hill. Half of that total came on the first day, representing a 123% increase over the first day of early voting during the last election.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump betting odds history

A candidate usually accepts the nomination during their party's national convention. That's always a mere formality, but it happened even earlier this year.

The warp speed of the changeover from Biden to Harris meant there was little time for tradition, with Harris officially becoming the nominee on Aug. 1 after a virtual roll call. That came less than two weeks after Biden publicly dropped his reelection bid, endorsing his Vice President in the process. 

Public interest and support for Harris immediately shot up, with the Harris campaign raising a stunning $81 million over just the first 24 hours. Our Ontario sports betting apps immediately took notice, and Harris quickly ate into what was once a formidable lead for Trump by the odds to win the presidency.

Trump had been dominating when Biden was his opponent while sitting shorter than -300. At that time Harris sat miles back among the crowded second tier of potential candidates while getting odds of +4000 or longer.

She shortened lightning fast while becoming the favorite by the odds over Trump. Harris soared to -125 just prior to the Democratic National Convention, which began on Aug. 19.

She stayed in that range for a while before slowly starting to give back ground just prior to the Sept. 10 debate. Harris then easily triumphed during that verbal squareoff while successfully and repeatedly baiting Trump.

She surged to leapfrog Trump again, with her odds getting to as short as -138. Harris sat in that territory while riding her debate high for a while. But like so many swings during a long election campaign, her debate bubble would burst eventually too.

The Democratic candidate gradually started to drift back toward Trump, with the two listed at dead even with -110 odds both ways in late September. That deadlock remained in place for a few weeks before Trump started to first jog and then sprint in the opposite direction.

Trump climbed to at least -200 across the board by mid-October, and he even started to flirt with his peak when Biden was his opponent while getting as short as -227.

But the difference between that rise by the odds and the post-debate one Harris enjoyed is that it wasn't tied to an event. Instead, it seemed to mostly be about oddsmakers balancing liability, and making bettors pay for the Trump wager they were intent on making then no matter the price.

John Ewing of BetMGM noted at the time that 77% of the money wagered was going toward Trump. That number has fallen since, but Trump is still getting the majority of the money while Harris is receiving a slight majority of the action.

That comes after Harris has battled back in the odds, and now there's been a constant swaying back and forth.

Harris had eaten into Trump's dominant lead he held during the not-so distant past, with all the books moving in her favor over the weekend, when she sat as short as +105. She skyrocketed over a short period, shortened from about +175 in a matter of days.

That's when Trump went from -175 to about -125 in the final days of the campaign. But as Ewing also observes, the seesawing continues, and Trump has been inching back upwards again.

He's gradually been shortening at BetMGM since Sunday afternoon.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump important dates

• June 27: Biden struggles immensely in debate against trump
• July 13: An attempted assassination of Trump in Butler, PA
• July 21: Biden withdraws, endorsing Harris in the process
• Aug. 1: Harris is officially declared the new Democratic candidate
• Sept. 10: The first and only presidential debate between Trump and Harris
• Sept. 15: A second assassination attempt against Trump, this time near his golf course in Florida

More election news

• Oct. 15, 2024: Trump holds an odd town hall event in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Monday. It was cut short after he took a few questions, and then Trump stood on stage for about 45 minutes as music played. His campaign press secretary said Trump attempted to turn the event into a concert to "lighten the mood" following two medical emergencies in the crowd amid a hot room. But the Harris campaign is describing Trump as looking "lost, confused, and frozen on stage," according to The Hill.
• Oct. 15, 2024: The town hall that turned into a concert and Harris' criticism of it ties into her recent emphasis on age. The 78-year-old Trump would be the oldest sitting president by the end of his term if he were to be re-elected, and Harris has been pushing for Trump to release his medical records, as Axios notes.
• Oct. 6, 2024: X owner Elon Musk joins Trump at a rally in Butler, Pa., the site of an attempted assassination on the former president. Musk spoke in dark tones, saying "this will be the last election" if Trump doesn’t secure a second term.
• Oct. 1, 2024: Tim Walz and JD Vance take part in the vice presidential debate. Both men assert themselves well, though Vance often gained the upper hand. However, Walz still held his own, and the key moment for him came toward the end of the debate when Vance wouldn't say whether Trump won or lost the 2020 election.
• Sept. 16, 2024: Ryan Wesley Routh has been arrested and charged with two gun-related crimes after the second apparent assassination attempt on Trump. Routh was near the treeline at Trump's golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla. with an AK-47 style rifle. Cellphone records showed he was there for over 12 hours, and during Trump's round of golf the Secret Service saw Routh, shot at him, and later made the arrest, according to The Guardian.
• Sept. 16, 2024: Trump, who was safe and unharmed, blamed Biden and Harris, saying their rhetoric is responsible for the threats and violence against him, according to NBC News. He said they've taken "politics in our country to a whole new level of hatred," even though both Biden and Harris regularly denounce all such acts, including after the latest apparent attempt on Trump's life Sunday.
• Sept. 12, 2024: Although there was initially an agreement on a second presidential debate, Trump now says that's not happening, according to the BBC.
• Sept. 9, 2024: Harris debuts a new ad prior to the debate in which former officials in Trump's White House are criticizing him and saying why they won't be endorsing the Republican, according to Politico.
• Sept. 4, 2024: In a sudden reversal of messaging, Trump finally says he lost the 2020 election. Trump told podcaster Lex Fridman he lost "by a whisker," via MSNBC.
• Aug. 26, 2024: Over 200 moderate Republicans from the not-so-distant past during the George Bush, John McCain, or Mitt Romney eras have now endorsed Harris, according to USA Today via MSNBC.
• Aug. 23, 2024: Trump was reacting throughout Harris' speech at the Democratic National Convention on Truth Social. His longest post was in reaction to Harris saying he would further restrict reproductive rights and sign a national abortion ban while limiting access to birth control and IVF. "These are all false stories that she's making up," Trump said, according to ABC News.
• Aug 19, 2024: Amid cratering poll results, Trump continues to attack the validity of Harris' candidacy, saying that replacing Biden was "an overthrow of the president" while calling the process a "coup," according to The Washington Post.
• Aug. 9, 2024: Walz surges ahead of JD Vance in favorability polls between the two running mates on either side. He's sitting on a plus-11 net rating, according to Newsweek. Vance is struggling significantly while holding a favorability rating of just 31.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
• Aug. 8, 2024: Harris overtakes Trump as the betting favorite for the 2024 presidency at several sportsbooks.
• Aug. 6, 2024: Kamala Harris tells a crowd of Philadelphia supporters she has formally accepted the Democratic presidential nomination.

• Aug. 6, 2024: Kamala Harris tabs Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate; both Walz and Harris make it official in separate X posts.
• July 21, 2024: Biden announced via X that he decided not to accept the Democratic nomination and is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his potential successor.
• July 15, 2024: Trump names J.D. Vance as his running mate during Day 1 of the Republican National Convention. Vance, who hails from the battleground state of Ohio, was dubbed the "best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States."
• July 13, 2024: Trump survives an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. After going to the ground with the Secret Service protecting him, Trump rose with his fist raised while gesturing to the crowd and saying "fight! fight!"
• July 10, 2024: George Clooney pens a New York Times op-ed in which he says the Democratic party needs a new nominee. Clooney is a major celebrity donor who helped the party raise $30 million through a Los Angeles fundraiser.
• July 10, 2024: Money speaks loudly, and CNN reports that Democratic donors are deeply concerned and withholding significant checks. "Everything is frozen because no one knows what’s going to happen. Everyone is in wait-and-see mode,” a Democratic strategist said. Biden has fallen fast in the Democratic presidential odds.
• July 5. 2024: Biden did his first post-debate interview on July 5 on ABC News with George Stephanopoulos. Overall it was an attempt to calm the waters and quell fears about his cognitive ability. It's difficult to say how successful he was on that front, but Biden seemed far more coherent and didn't make any disastrous missteps. Despite what feels like a mounting push among Democrats to replace him, Biden remained defiant about running while saying only the "lord almighty" could make him drop out.
• July 4, 2024: Biden tells a Wisconsin radio station that he "screwed up" during the debate, but says he plans to stay in the race and urges voters to judge him on his work in the White House. Even more strongly, he told his campaign staffers "no one is pushing me out" and "I'm not leaving," according to a BBC report.
• July 3, 2024: Reid Hastings, the co-founder of Netflix, becomes the latest major donor to call for Biden to step down. "Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous," he said in an email to The New York Times.
• July 2, 2024: The most notable addition to at least raise questions about Biden is Nancy Pelosi, one of the most prominent Democrats. "I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode, or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate - of both candidates," the former Speaker of the House said during an interview on MSNBC.
• July 3, 2024: Harris passes Biden on the odds to win the 2024 presidential election after a CNN poll found 45% of registered voters would support Harris in a hypothetical race against Trump.
• June 30, 2024: Biden speaks at a campaign rally in North Carolina less than 24 hours after the debate, and he's noticeably more energetic, with his speech far more clear and thoughts flowing better. However, he's using a teleprompter and not speaking freely and in an unrehearsed setting, as he needed to during the debate.
• June 27, 2024: The reviews of Biden's debate performance were immediately damning, with Politico calling it the worst in American history. Beyond Biden's frequent incoherence, perhaps the most damaging part of his evening was his inability to clearly call out Trump's statements that were shaky at best. Missing the mark on Trump's ties to and activity during the Jan. 6 riots was a main example among many.
• May 30, 2024: At long last, the jurors reached a verdict in the hush-money case against Trump: guilty on all 34 felony counts. The jury reached a verdict at 4:20 p.m. ET, shortly before they would likely have been sent home for the day, and the country waited with bated breath for roughly 30 minutes as they filled out the verdict sheet. The result is the first conviction of a former U.S. president in American history, though Trump remained the favorite by the latest election odds in the immediate aftermath of the verdict.
• May 21, 2024: Trump shares and then later deletes a campaign video on his Truth Social account that includes the phrase "unified Reich." The video seemed typical enough at first, but in the background, there's a reference to the "creation of a unified Reich" in Trump's America, in addition to "German industrial strength." Inevitably, Joe Biden brought up the video, saying during a Boston fundraiser that the "threat Trump poses is greater the second time around than it was the first."
• March 12, 2024: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who's well-known for his authoritarian policies, says after meeting with Trump that the Republican candidate would cut off military funding and "not give a penny" to Ukraine if re-elected.
• March 11, 2024: Alabama senator Katie Britt gave the rebuttal to Biden's State of the Union address for the Republicans, and she continues to face a backlash regarding an apparently distorted story told about a young woman who was sex trafficked. Britt used the story to criticize Biden's border policies. However, Jacinto Romero, the trafficking victim, said it took place in Mexico between 2004 and 2008 and not in America. That was also when Republican George W. Bush was president.
• March 5, 2024: Mitch McConnell endorses Trump following the candidate's dominance on Super Tuesday, saying he looks forward to working with the former president again. The two have often sparred publicly, making this endorsement even more significant.
• March 4, 2024: A ruling that felt inevitable was made official, with the Supreme Court ruling that Trump can stay on the ballot in Colorado. The state's highest court had ruled to remove Trump in a case that leaned on the "insurrectionist clause" included in the 14th Amendment. However, during deliberations in February, it became clear that the Supreme Court judges were skeptical of how far-reaching a state's power could be in this instance. Even the liberal-leaning judges joined that chorus, resulting in a unanimous 9-0 vote in favor of keeping Trump on the ballot. The decision is a massive win for Trump, as the case was the most significant legal election hurdle he faced, though other criminal proceedings are ongoing.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump is the betting favorite to win the 2024 U.S. election with odds as short as -164, representing an implied win probability of 62.12%.

Does DraftKings feature election odds?

Draftkings Ontario re-added election odds. That book is currently featuring Trump as the favorite with -150 odds while Harris sits at +125.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election. He dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on June 21.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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