Stephen A. Smith Presidential Election Odds: Is ESPN Personality Getting a Long-Shot Chance?
Donald Trump is only just over a month into his second and final term as president, and the very early jostling to replace him in 2028 is already beginning.
That's part of the typical feeling-out process at this point in the cycle, but it doesn't often result in serious discussion about the Stephen A. Smith presidential election odds, or any other similar public figure with no political experience.
Yes, the time has come to at least entertain the possibility of the highly influential ESPN personality running for president. The New Yorker and The Washington Post have done the same, and more importantly, so have several of our political betting sites (outside the U.S.) while giving Smith odds.
Stephen A. Smith presidential election betting odds
Currently, three of the best sportsbooks in Canada are offering odds on Stephen A. Smith to win the presidency in 2028, with that list including bet365 Ontario, BetMGM Ontario, and Sport Interaction Ontario.
Here are the odds for him from each of those books. Also, a reminder that U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit the social sportsbook BetRivers.net, which is available in most U.S. states.
| Sportsbook | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
| BetMGM | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
| Sports Interaction | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
A few quick observations on where Smith stands in the outright winner market for the 2028 presidential eleciton:
- Smith is getting the identical far-reaching long-shot odds across the board, putting him at the bottom of lengthy lists, and at BetMGM he's receiving the same odds as fellow celebrity non-politicians like Oprah Winfrey, Joe Rogan, George Clooney, and Mark Zuckerberg
- bet365 casts a wide early net while listing 72 names on its presidential election betting odds, with Smith as one of 10 featured at +10000, right alongside previous failed candidates Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, and Michael Bloomberg, and former First Lady Jill Biden
- Smith is also only slightly ahead of Taylor Swift (+12500) at bet365, and Dana White (+20000) is among the few people behind him
- Mark Cuban (+8000) is only marginally ahead of Smith at bet365 as well
Can Stephen A. Smith become the president in 2028?
The odds from our Ontario sports betting sites indicate his chances of replacing Trump barely exist and sit below 1%.
However, as much as the mere thought of Smith's candidacy may seem laughable to some (very much including Democratic strategist James Carville), we don't need to look far back in history to see a shining example of long-shot success from a similar outsider candidate. In fact, that candidate was elected twice, and he's the current sitting president.
Trump made his now iconic descent down the golden escalator to declare his candidacy on June 15, 2015. Even though unlike Smith he had officially made himself a candidate, Trump still wasn't taken seriously and his odds were astronomical. What was his price then? +10000 and identical to Smith, according to ESPN.
Like Smith, Trump had logged no political experience at the time, though he often voiced his stances on hot-button issues.
Smith does the same, but as Jay Caspian Kang of The New Yorker noted, his views are mixed, and he can best be described as being down the middle. The popular host called himself a "fiscal conservative and a social liberal" during a December appearance on "The View," which is the classic definition of a centurist. He would nonetheless be a hypothetical opponent to the next Republican candidate, a title JD Vance is highly favored to earn by the odds.
Publicly, Smith has given off mixed messages about his interest in running, too. He laid out his detest for campaigning while speaking on Radio Row during the 2025 Super Bowl, saying that would be the major hurdle.
"I can’t imagine myself ever running," he told Front Office Sports. "The one thing that will always dissuade me from political office is having to campaign."
"Now if I could just get interviewed and get into office, that would be different," he continued. "But that campaign stuff would kill me because I am a straight shooter.”
But if somehow he could do little to no campaigning and just ride his popularity to he White House, Smith seemed ready for the call in a later interview with CNBC's Alex Sherman.
"If you tell me that I could catapult to the White House, and I could be in a position to affect millions upon millions of lives, not just in America, but the world over, yeah, that’s something that I would entertain," the "First Take" host said earlier in February.
So the interest is there to some degree, and the support could be too. A recent poll put him only narrowly behind former vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro among Democrats.
Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?
Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".
Odds often surface far in advance, with only the outright winner market available at first. Later on during the election year other prop markets will emerge, such as which party will win, who will win the most electoral college votes, and who will take the popular vote.
United States presidential election previous winners
| Year (Election #) | Winner (Party) | Winner Odds | Runner-up (Party) | Runner-up Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (60) | Donald Trump (R) | -188 | Kamala Harris (D) | +162 |
| 2020 (59) | Joe Biden (D) | -175 | Donald Trump (R) | +150 |
| 2016 (58) | Donald Trump (R) | +375 | Hillary Clinton (D) | -550 |
| 2012 (57) | Barack Obama (D) | -450 | Mitt Romney (R) | +360 |
| 2008 (56) | Barack Obama (D) | -900 | John McCain (R) | +800 |
| 2004 (55) | George W. Bush (R) | -188 | John Kerry (D) | +138 |
| 2000 (54) | George W. Bush (R) | -175 | Al Gore (D) | +125 |
| 1996 (53) | Bill Clinton (D) | -1000 | Bob Dole (R) | +600 |
| 1992 (52) ++ | Bill Clinton (D) | -800 | George H. W. Bush (R) | +500 |
| 1988 (51) | George H. W. Bush (R) | -700 | Michael Dukakis (D) | +400 |
| 1984 (50) | Ronald Reagan (R) | -700 | Walter Mondale (D) | +450 |
| 1980 (49) | Ronald Reagan (R) | -110 | Jimmy Carter (D) | -110 |
| 1976 (48) | Jimmy Carter (D) | +100 | Gerald Ford (R) | -120 |
Odds among the top candidates move frequently right up until voting day in November of an election year.
But bettors should remember that the favorite has won in 26 of the last 31 presidential elections. That includes Trump in 2024, though in 2016 he was a significant underdog to Hillary Clinton, and that night went sideways quickly for the Democrats.
Stephen A. Smith presidential election FAQs
Is Stephen A. Smith running for president?
The ESPN star hasn't made a formal statement yet, and his messaging has been mixed. However, there's been some indication of interest.
What are Stephen A. Smith's odds to be the next president?
Smith is getting +10000 odds to win the presidency in 2028, which translates to a 0.99% implied probability.
Who is the favorite for the 2028 U.S. election?
Vice president-elect JD Vance is the early favorite for the 2028 election while getting +250 odds. That leads to an implied win probability of 28.57%.
Does DraftKings feature election odds?
Draftkings Ontario re-added election odds late during the 2024 campaign, and it's now one of a few sportsbooks in the province featuring early 2028 odds.
Who won the previous U.S. presidential election?
Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States after defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Harris became his opponent after Joe Biden dropped out on June 21, 2024.
When is the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
The next day Americans will go to the polls to vote for a president is Nov. 7, 2028.
When will the candidates for the 2028 U.S. presidential election be decided?
Trump will not be permitted to run again after reaching the end of his second and final term. Both parties will hold primaries, which will begin early in 2028. How long that process will take to decide the likely nominees is difficult to project. But favorites often begin to emerge early in the spring, and especially after Super Tuesday in March.
Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?
Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2028. Ultimately, voters decided who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.
How to watch the U.S. presidential election
Every major news outlet covers the results of the 2028 United States presidential election.
Presidential election betting odds pages
Here are our best political betting sites:
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