StarSeries Season 6 Picks: No Dominant Sides, but Odds Carry Value

SBR Staff

Thursday, October 11, 2018 4:10 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018 4:10 PM UTC

There is one day of quiet before the craziness of the playoff stage in Kiev begins. StarSeries Season 6 has certainly delivered for Counter-Strike fans. Now, let's check out the upcoming competition.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/YSb1l3D0hrI", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]

What a unique tournament this has been. Only one top-five team attended this week, Mousesports, and they went from 2-0 to being eliminated in three straight matches. We are now left with a wide-open field. Any team in the final eight has a legitimate shot to take this tournament, and the bookmakers agree. I cannot remember the last time four quarterfinal matches did not one feature a team favored more than -135. This truly shows what a "pick' em" the remaining matches might be. Let's break them down.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

#StarSeriesS6 Playoffs Bracket 🏆

09:00 CEST - @OpTicGaming vs @Renegades
12:00 CEST - @ence vs @BIGCLANgg
15:00 CEST - @VegaSquadron vs @TeamFragsters
18:00 CEST - @NRGgg vs @TheNorthIsHere

The action starts on Friday! pic.twitter.com/2x3kKJIsFV

— StarLadder CS:GO (@cssltv) October 11, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Optic vs. Renegades

Talk about a resurgence in this Australian roster. After the major they swapped out three players and since then have been hot, winning 9/10 with this roster! It is clear their map pool is rather limited at the moment focusing on Mirage and Inferno. Optic will ban Cache without a doubt, allowing the Danes to pick a Train or Overpass. Optic has finally shown some positives with victories over Big and Mousesports in the groups. This has been in large due to strong ct-sides and Konfig showing his amazing skill once again. However, I still don't trust their team chemistry. Even though they have the better map pool, I like Renegades' chances to break their defense on Mirage or Dust2 and possibly Inferno in the decider. Best Bet: Renegades ML +140 (Pinnacle)

Ence vs. Big

These are two rosters that have been consistently challenging the best teams in the world the past four months yet neither winning a notable tournament. I have been thoroughly impressed with the Finnish organization's team play on both sides of their matches; executes have been on point, as have their setups and retakes. Big is a roster I love to root for, but I would consider them a bit lucky to be in the playoffs. They began the tournament going 0-2 against Fragsters and Optic, and their play was incredibly poor. They did well to take Cache victories over Complexity and Tyloo, but more impressively eliminated tournament favorites Mousesports in overtime Wednesday among some hot esports drama. While their ct-sides were able to grind out rounds, their offense has been mediocre. Ence loves to permaban Cache meaning Big will likely pick Dust2, a map Ence can play -- though they might not be as tactically diverse on it as the Germans. Big just seems a bit more sloppy than they did at other tournaments, giving the Ence price as a minimal favorite some value. Best Bet: Ence ML -115 (Bookmaker)

Vega Squadron vs. Fragsters

This is a more difficult matchup to find an edge. Both teams have garnered reputations for inconsistent play both on and offline the past few months. They both love to upset against better opposition and then lose matches they should be favored regularly. Fragsters are certainly the future of Danish Counter-Strike but at times their experience is very apparent. I do question how strong they are on outside of a difficult map like Nuke -- which they upset Big and North on. If Vega bans that map, Fragsters could pull out Dust2 which is not bad, but it is very "puggy" and random at times. At the end of the day I think Vega' unpredictable, almost YOLO, firepower could get enough done for them on their t-side to grind out a win in three maps. Best Bet: Vega ML +120 (Pinnacle)

NRG vs. North

It seems unfortunate that the two remaining "favorites" would meet here in the quarterfinal. After looking promising at ESL One New York, NRG got stomped in the playoffs by Mousesports 2-0. I was on the NRG +1.5 in that one and, even though a loss might have been expected, the degree to which they were destroyed was disappointing. It appears they have made some adjustments as their t-sides looked very on point in Kiev, putting up 8, 11, and 12 round halves. Their best start was a 12-3 half against this very opponent, North. The Danes are perplexing me with their current weak ct sides. After holding a strong ct-side against Optic, they allowed the opposition to put up 12 t-rounds on Nuke and Inferno, 10 on Train, and nearly double digits again on Train against Imperial. To add to the confusion, Train and Nuke are thought to be strong ct-sided maps. If they do not use their day off to work on these ct-sides, this could be a swift 2-0 for NRG. At this time, I have not made a bet for this match. My lean would be "over" 2.5 currently at -120 (Bet365), but I want to see how the map veto breaks down to be confident in this wager.

Betting Tips

A great way to bet on CSGO tournaments is to wait until the veto is released, then look at team's performances on a particular map to bang out some additional value. If you're interested for more up-to-date picks, I will be tweeting out my map plays over the weekend. As well, every Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, SBR hosts Quickscope to discuss upcoming esports betting opportunities. Come and join us!

comment here