Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev Predictions & Odds for 2025 Australian Open Final

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 24, 2025 12:10 PM EST • 3 min read. Twitter link Google News Link

Jannik Sinner celebrates during his match against Ben Shelton as we look at our Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev predictions. — Pictured: Jannik Sinner celebrates during his match against Ben Shelton. Photo by Mike Frey / Imagn Images.

The top two seeds in the Men’s Draw have advanced to meet in the Australian Open final on Sunday at 3:30 a.m. ET from Melbourne Park, with Jannik Sinner facing Alexander Zverev.

Our Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev predictions analyze if Sinner is worth the moneyline price of -275 at BetMGM and bet365 after losing four of six head-to-head meetings with Zverev.

Will Zverev’s success against Sinner continue as he breaks through for his first career Grand Slam title? Or will Sinner win consecutive Australian Opens?

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev predictions

Pick to win: Jannik Sinner (-275 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best pick: Alexander Zverev to win the first set (+160 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev odds

(Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

	Jannik Sinner	Alexander Zverev
Moneyline	-300	+235
Spread	-4.5 (-120)	+4.5 (-105)
Over/Under	Over 39.5 (-110)	Under 39.5 (-120)

Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev pick to win

Jannik Sinner ML ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Many will scoff at the steep -275 moneyline price for Sinner in the Australian Open odds (which is as high as -300 at DraftKings and Caesars). But these odds pale in comparison to the massive -2000 price he was given to beat Ben Shelton in the semifinals (which carried a 95.24% implied probability).

Perhaps Zverev is the only player in the field with a legitimate chance to beat Sinner, based on his 4-2 head-to-head record against the World No. 1. But I'm not fading Sinner, who's appearing in his third consecutive hard-court major final.

Sinner is amid a 20-match winning streak, the longest such stretch of his career. He's also won 13 straight at the Australian Open, the same amount of Grand Slam matches consecutively, and Sinner has logged 20 straight hard-court Grand Slam victories (the second-youngest to do so).

This is a four-star play, as Sinner is the seventh man to win 20-plus consecutive matches this century.

Those looking for a better payout than $13.64 on a winning $10 moneyline wager could invest in Sinner’s set betting odds, which are +180, +275, and +475, respectively, for him to win in three, four, or five sets at BetMGM.

Best odds: -275 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 73.33%

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Best Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev pick

Alexander Zverev to win the first set ⭐⭐⭐

Zverev is unlikely to fall victim to a straight-sets loss based on his 4-2 head-to-head record against Sinner. That's true even if the latter has lost just two sets on his current run to the final.

Sinner’s fitness is a huge advantage over most opponents, and longer matches play to his advantage. But Zverev was only on the court for 82 minutes in the one set he played against Novak Djokovic before the legend retired with an injury.

This stage also shouldn't intimidate Zverev, as it's his third Grand Slam final appearance. And Zverev’s nine Grand Slam semifinal appearances are second only to Djokovic Since 2020.

Zverev is getting as high as a 75% implied probability to win at least one set (based on bet365’s -300 odds). So head to DraftKings to take advantage of its +160 odds that he'll win the first set of the match.

DraftKings is alone among our best sportsbooks while offering better than +155 odds for this wager, while FanDuel is on the low end at +142. At the +160 price, a $10 winning wager would net $16 in profits.

Best odds: +160 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 38.46%

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Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev H2H stats

Jannik Sinner	Stat	Alexander Zverev
2	Matches won	4
0	Wins in straight sets	2
8	Sets won	12
101	Games won	117
1	Wins on hard court	3

Australian Open final match info

When: Sunday, Jan. 26 at 3:30 a.m. ET
Where: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park
How to watch: ESPN+
Favorite: Sinner (-300 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”