Canadian Federal Election Odds: Favorite Conservatives Continue to Pull Away

Andrew Reid

Last Updated: December 17, 2024 6:16 AM EST • 2 min 25 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives for a dinner as we look at the best updated Canadian Election odds. — Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives for a dinner during the XIX Francophonie Summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Photo by Firas Abdullah / Abaca / Sipa USA.

One of our best political betting sites in Canada is still posting 45th Canadian election odds despite the fact there's no Canadian election called yet. It will be on, or before, Oct. 25, 2025.

After the events of Dec. 16, it looks like it may not be too far in the future.

Deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned from cabinet. That news overshadowed the resignation of housing minister Sean Fraser just hours earlier.

The Liberal Party of Canada has received three consecutive national mandates and has survived numerous confidence motions. However, by the looks of the odds, Canada will be in for a change when residents head to the polls.

Let's take a look at the Canadian federal election odds in the wake of the news, which are available at our Ontario sports betting apps.

45th Canadian Federal Election odds

Market states: Settled on the Party of Prime Minister sworn in as a result of the 45th Canadian Federal Election. Verification via Elections Canada and Office of the Governor General.

Odds via bet365 as of Dec. 17, 2024

Party	Odds (bet365)	Implied probability	Profit ($10 bet)
Conservatives (CPC)	-900	90%	$1.11
Liberal Party (LPC)	+500	16.67%	$50
New Democratic (NDP)	+4000	2.44%	$400
Bloc Quebecois (BQ)	+8000	1.23%	$800
Green (GPC)	+50000	0.20%	$5000
People's Party of Canada (PPC)	+75000	0.13%	$7500

Which party is the 45th Canadian Federal Election odds favorite?

Conservative (CPC) (-900)

The Conservative Party of Canada is the front-runner to form the next government of Canada. While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it had formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) over the three previous elections.

With Pierre Poilievre leading the way, bet365 is currently giving the party an implied win percentage of 90%.

At FanDuel Ontario, things are even more tilted in the conservatives favorite, with the party shifting to -4000 favorites following Monday's news.

The last time the LPC or CPC (or one of the historical predecessors of the two parties) wasn't leading the country was prior to the 1921 election. Even the party that ruled from 1917 to 1921 primarily consisted of MPs who had previously served under the Conservative banner.

Best odds: -900 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 90%

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Where can I bet on the Canadian Federal election?

You can bet on the Canadian General Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."

Odds often surface far in advance, with only the winning party market available at first. Closer to the election, other prop markets will emerge.

Canadian General Federal FAQs

Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?

The Conservative Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian General Election, with odds of -900 representing a 90% implied win probability.

Who won the previous Canadian Federal election?

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.

When is the next Canadian Federal election?

The next Canadian Federal election will be on or before Oct. 20, 2025.

Here are our best political betting sites:

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Written By:
Andrew Reid

Andrew is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He graduated from Acadia University with a degree in Kinesiology, working as a personal trainer and in injury rehab, and then attended the College of Sports Media in Toronto to attain a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting. Andrew has been involved in the sports betting and fantasy sports space since joining the FNTSY Sports Network in 2014, where he worked as a producer, director, and occasional on-air talent on various shows focusing on sports betting and DFS content. Prior to joining SBR, he spent multiple years with the USA Today Network as an editor and writer. Living in Newfoundland, Andrew frequents grey market sportsbooks, but in the past, when he's lived in regulated areas, he's become well-versed with all of our best sportsbooks. As strictly a casual bettor, he enjoys making touchdown parlays with friends (bro-lays), sweating out golf cut parlays during majors, playing same-game parlays for fun, and chasing long-shot bets. He also enjoys using sportsbooks that have solid iGaming and casino platforms. As the old guy on staff, he has an affinity for industry news, which confuses some, but shh ... quiet ... the news is on.