Canadian Federal Election Odds: Conservatives Overwhelming Favorites; Liberals Seek New Leader
The Canadian Federal Election odds markets continue to take shape in the weeks following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announced resignation. The Liberal Party will announce its new leader on March 9, which has produced one of the most popular markets leading up to the election.
A number of sites offer odds on the 45th Canadian Federal election, even though an election has yet to be called. The date of the next election is also proving to be a popular market.
Governor General Mary Simon has prorogued Parliament until March 24. As soon as things get underway again, Conservatives will undoubtedly introduce a non-confidence motion, likely with the support of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois.
45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government"
Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of Jan. 21, 2025
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives (CPC) | -4000 | 97.56% | $0.25 |
| Liberal Party (LPC) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| New Democratic (NDP) | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
| Any other party | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
Latest Canadian Federal Election news
- January 10: The Liberals announce they will name their new leader on March 9; House of Commons is prorogued until March 24 to allow for transition
- January 6: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he will resign as the leader of the Liberal Party when a replacement has been chosen
- December 20: New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh announces he would bring forth a non-confidence motion for the Liberals, a shift from previous motions in which the NDP backed the Liberals
- December 16: Deputy Prime Minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns
- December 16: Housing minister Sean Fraser announces he will not seek re-election
- December 8: The Liberals survive a third non-confidence vote as the Conservatives attempt to topple the government again but do not receive NDP support
Which party is the 45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds favorite?
Conservative (CPC) (-4000)
The Conservative Party of Canada is the front-runner in forming the next government at our political betting sites in Canada.
While the CPC has not won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011).
With Pierre Poilievre leading the way, some of our Ontario sports betting apps give the party an implied win percentage as high as 97.56%.
The last time the LPC or CPC (or one of the historical predecessors of the two parties) wasn't leading the country was before the 1921 election. Even the party that ruled from 1917 to 1921 primarily consisted of MPs who had previously served under the Conservative banner.
Best odds: -4000 via FanDuel | Implied win probability: 97.56%
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Next permanent Liberal Party leader?
This market clearly states that "Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count"
Odds as of Jan. 21, 2025.
| Name | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | -280 | 73.68% | $3.57 |
| Chrystia Freeland | +125 | 44.44% | $12.50 |
| Karina Gould | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Frank Baylis | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
| Sean Fraser | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
| Jamie Battiste | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
- January 14: Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne announces he will not run for leader
- January 14: Former British Columbia premier Christ Clark will not run to be the leader
- January 13: Mark Carney is expected to formally announce his bid for the leadership on Jan. 16
- January 13: Chrystia Freeland is expected to officially announce her bid for the Liberal leadership, a source told CBC News
- January 11: Transport Minster Anita Anand declares she will not enter race
- January 11: Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly declines to enter race
What day will the 45th Canadian Federal Election be held?
With the election seemingly being on the horizon, you can bet on when people will head to the ballot boxes on FanDuel Ontario.
Odds as of Jan. 21, 2025.
| Date | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter (Before or during February 2025) | +4700 | 2.08% | $470 |
| Spring (March-May 2025) | -390 | 79.59% | $2.56 |
| Summer (June-Sept 2025) | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Fall (Sept- Oct. 19, 2025) | +470 | 17.54% | $47 |
| Scheduled date (Oct. 20, 2025) | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
Which party will form the official opposition?
It looks like the Conservative Party of Canada is set to capture the election and that change is upcoming for Canadians, but what party will act as the official opposition? FanDuel Ontario offers odds.
Odds as of Jan. 21, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloq Qubecois (BQ) | -240 | 70.59% | $4.17 |
| Liberal (LPL) | +165 | 37.74% | $16.50 |
| Any other party | +3700 | 2.63% | $370 |
Where can I bet on the Canadian Federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian General Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and who will win the official opposition.
Canadian general federal election FAQs
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Conservative Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -4000 representing a 97.56% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian Federal election?
Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian Federal election?
The next Canadian Federal election will be on or before Oct. 20, 2025. A spring election is the favorite, with -390 odds, offering a 79.59% implied probability.
Who will replace Justin Trudeau?
The Liberal Party will work to find a replacement for Justin Trudeau after announcing his intent to resign. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, is the betting favorite at -280. The new leader will be announced on March 9.
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