Skip to main content

2025 Australian Open Final: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys Predictions & Odds for Tonight

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 25, 2025 12:14 AM EST • 2 min 40 sec read.

Madison Keys hits a forehand during her match against Iga Swiatek as we offer our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys predictions and odds for tonight.
Pictured: Madison Keys hits a forehand during her match against Iga Swiatek. Photo by Mike Frey via Imagn Images

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is looking for her third straight Australian Open final when she faces Madison Keys in tonight's final. The former has been the Australian Open odds favorite since the start of the tournament, and she's showcased why throughout. 

However, our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys prediction ponders whether the latter can pull off the sizable upset and win her first Grand Slam. This is Keys' first major final in eight years. 

Sabalenka is the massive favorite across our best sports betting sites, and she has beaten Keys in four of five previous meetings. Tonight's grandstand final is set for 3:30 a.m. ET (ESPN+) from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne Park.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys updated betting info

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys predictions

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys odds

(Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

Aryna SabalenkaMadison Keys
Moneyline-330+240
Spread-4.5 (+100)+4.5 (-130)
Over/UnderOver 21.5 (-120)Under 21.5 (-110)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys pick to win

Madison Keys moneyline ⭐⭐

Sabalenka is 33-1 in her last 34 hard-court Grand Slam matches. She is 11-0 in 2025 and has won 20 consecutive Australian Open matches (including 13 straight Grand Slam wins). But Keys is a veteran enough player not to be afraid of the spotlight in her second major final appearance.

She has enough experience against Sabalenka to warrant a flier on pulling the upset. Keys lost to Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open semifinal. But she showed potential for dominance in that match, winning the first set 6-0, and losing the next two sets in tiebreaks. 

Keys has had a tremendous start to the year, going 13-1 and entering on an 11-match winning streak. The American is one of the lone women on tour who can match Sabalenka’s power from the baseline and should play more loosely, having snapped a four-match losing streak in Grand Slam semifinals.

There is little value backing Sabalenka with the moneyline odds juiced as steep as -350 at Caesars and bet365. Thus, I am backing Keys with two stars of confidence at bet365, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +260 odds.

Best odds: +275 via bet365 | Implied probability: 26.67%

Best Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys pick

Madison Keys to win Over 9.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Keys wins the match outright, this bet is a guaranteed winner. It also serves as a solid hedge against her moneyline odds, especially since she has won six-plus games in three of the last five sets and five of the last 10 played against Sabalenka.

Keys showed tremendous resilience in her win over Iga Swiatek, becoming the first woman since 2017 to reach the Australian Open Women’s Singles final after losing the first set in the semifinals. In addition, Keys proved that she could channel her best tennis in crucial spots. She saved a match point at 5-6 down in the third set to break serve, force a tiebreak, and win five of the last six points.

There is tremendous value in making this wager at FanDuel, as our other best sportsbooks have Keys’ O/U set at 10.5 games won (juiced -115 to the Over). Through FanDuel’s -118 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $8.47 in profits.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys H2H stats

Aryna SabalenkaStatMadison Keys
4Matches won1
3Wins in straight sets0
9Sets won3
65Games won52
3Wins on hard court0

Australian Open final match info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 25 at 3:30 a.m. ET
  • Where: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park
  • How to watch: ESPN+
  • Favorite: Sabalenka (-330 via DraftKings)

Here are our best sports betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”