Will Shohei Ohtani Win NL MVP in 2025? Projections, Odds & Futures Bets
Shohei Ohtani will likely serve as the preseason favorite to win National League MVP until he stops playing baseball.
Following a historic 50-50 campaign, the two-way megastar is set to return to the mound at some point this season, further cementing himself as the greatest player in baseball. However, does that mean we should bet on him each year?
With spring training officially underway, we look through the latest MLB MVP odds and answer a question I'm sure many people believe doesn't need to be asked: Will Shohei Ohtani win NL MVP in 2025?
MLB MVP odds
Live National League MVP odds available via our best MLB betting sites.
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL MVP?
There are a number of factors when it comes to Ohtani's bid to win back-to-back NL MVP awards, and it's why I'm so hesitant to pull the trigger on these +200 odds.
Do I think it's entirely possible Ohtani pulls a repeat performance of last year and adds some pitching statistics as the little cherry on top? Of course it is. Do I believe he should have a 33.33% implied probability to win the award with spring training just beginning? Well, let's dive into it.
Voter fatigue?
First, let's get the obvious out of the way.
Every year, whether it's Ohtani in MLB or Nikola Jokic in the NBA, the question everyone asks when a player is this dominant is will voters get tired of picking them to win MVP?
We saw it happen two years ago with Jokic, and we could witness it this year with Ohtani, especially with the National League getting two new MVP contenders who've never won the award in their career.
One of those players is Kyle Tucker, who's trading at +1500 and serves as the fifth-biggest favorite after joining the Chicago Cubs.
The other is the player every team and its fanbase wanted to add this offseason.
Juan Soto returns to the NL
Of course, I'm taking about Juan Soto, who made the New York Mets the winners of this offseason when they signed baseball's $765-million man.
Soto had his best season last year in his lone campaign with the New York Yankees, reaching 40 home runs for the first time and finishing third in AL MVP voting as a result. He now returns to the National League, where he's spent six of his seven years in the majors, and he serves as the biggest threat to Ohtani's chances of going back-to-back.
How much will Ohtani pitch?
As it stands, Soto is expected to be the more "valuable" hitter by the industry's leading projection models. However, the trick up Ohtani's sleeve is his ability to do something no other player has ever managed. Last year, as a full-time DH, that meant recording the first-ever 50-50 campaign. This year, he'll accomplish that by returning to the mound.
With spring training just underway, Ohtani is projected to pitch around 120 innings. If he can once again serve as one of the game's elite pitchers over that number of innings and hits, let's say, 40 homers to go with 30-plus stolen bases, Soto and the rest of the field will have to pray voters are tired of Ohtani.
2025 projections
So I discussed that Soto is projected to be the more valuable hitter between the two, but what happens when we factor in Ohtani's pitching projections?
Projections via Steamer
- Ohtani: 8.1 combined fWAR (5.6 as a hitter, 2.5 as a pitcher), 43 home runs, 34 stolen bases, 156 wRC+, .280/.373/.566, 9-6 record, 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
- Soto: 6.4 fWAR, 35 home runs, nine stolen bases, 169 wRC+, .282/.421/.537
Anyone who sees those numbers must think that someone willing to bet on Soto over Ohtani is insane. Well, that's exactly why I'm not betting on either of them!
Best NL MVP bet
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+800 via FanDuel)
That's right, as if I didn't learn my lesson last year with Julio Rodriguez, I am once again betting on the power-speed outfielder who probably strikes out a little too often to win MVP. And, funny enough, I like Tatis for many of the same reasons I liked Rodriguez last year.
First, he doesn't face a ton of competition within his own team when it comes to this award. Ohtani has Mookie Betts (fourth-shortest odds) and Soto has Francisco Lindor (eighth-shortest). They could steal some votes from each other. After Tatis, the closest San Diego Padres player on the NL MVP oddsboard is Jackson Merrill at +4000, and he's not a real threat to win this award.
Secondly, Tatis has the flash and the narrative. It's Nando and his Padres battling in the same division as the big, bad Dodgers, and he has the type of skill set that will catch the eye of everyone on social media when these teams square off.
And the third thing I like is the price.
As I mentioned, the implied probability associated with Ohtani's best odds is 33.33%. For Soto's +550 odds, that shrinks to 15.38% for an extra $35 profit on a $10 wager ($55 profit total). However, for an additional $25 on top of what you'd profit if you successfully bet on Soto, the implied probability for Tatis drops to only 11.11%.
That means we're getting an additional ~50% of pure profit by betting on Tatis rather than Soto, and our best sportsbooks are really telling us their chances to win the award aren't that different.
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NL MVP betting history
| Year | Name | Position | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DH | +900 |
| 2023 | Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | OF | +900 |
| 2022 | Paul Goldschmidt, STL | 1B | +6600 |
| 2021 | Bryce Harper, PHI | OF | +1700 |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman, ATL | 1B | +2500 |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger, LAD | OF | +3000 |
| 2018 | Christian Yelich, MIL | OF | +15000 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton, MIA | OF | +4500 |
| 2016 | Kris Bryant, CHC | 3B/OF | +1000 |
| 2015 | Bryce Harper, WAS | OF | +2000 |
MLB MVP FAQs
Who are the MLB MVP favorites?
Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani is the favorite in the National League at +200, leading to an implied probability of 33.33%. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is the front-runner in the American League while getting +300 odds, translating to an implied probability of 25%.
Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his third MVP award and first in the National League during 2024.
In the American League, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won for the second time.
When will the MLB MVP Awards be decided?
The winners of the 2024 MLB MVP Awards were announced on Thursday, Nov. 21.
Who has won the most MVP awards?
Barry Bonds' seven career MVP awards are the most in MLB history. No one else has won more than three, with 10 players tied at that number.
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