Skip to main content

Will Roki Sasaki Win NL Rookie of the Year in 2025? Projections, Odds & Futures Bets

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: February 19, 2025 4:15 PM EST • 4 min 7 sec read.

We look at the Roki Sasaki Rookie of the Year odds and examine whether he's the best bet to win the award.
Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers rookie pitcher Roki Sasaki throws during a spring training workout. Photo by Joe Camporeale via Imagn Images.

The Los Angeles Dodgers made headlines during the offseason for the second straight year, this time after signing Roki Sasaki.

The Japanese rookie sensation is expected to immediately slot into the Dodgers' rotation alongside fellow offseason addition Blake Snell, and countryman and 2024 NL Rookie of the Year contender Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The latter failed to garner any NL Rookie of the Year votes after entering spring training last year as the favorite with odds hovering around +250.

With his new teammate's MLB Rookie of the Year odds trading in a similar range, we're answering the question bettors are asking with spring training about to begin: Will Roki Sasaki win NL Rookie of the Year in 2025?

MLB Rookie of the Year odds

Live National League Rookie of the Year odds available via our best MLB betting sites.

Will Roki Sasaki win NL Rookie of the Year?

Sasaki's NL Rookie of the Year bid will come down to two factors:

  • Will the Dodgers give him the chance to dominate over a significant number of innings?
  • If not, can he put up gaudy enough numbers in a smaller sample size to still win?

Will rookie pitchers begin to dominate after 2024?

As we discussed in our look at the latest Paul Skenes Cy Young odds, starting pitchers struggled to capture the Rookie of the Year Award for the better part of the last decade before Skenes and Luis Gil both won last year.

The last NL starting pitcher to be crowned Rookie of the Year before Skenes was Jacob deGrom in 2014. However, with two starters earning the hardware in 2024, will we see that become the norm going forward?

I hesitate to assume so, as Gil barely won and mostly did only because the AL Rookie of the Year pool was fairly weak. Meanwhile, even Skenes needed to fight off Jackson Merrill despite putting together a rookie season for the ages.

But I'm not sure I envision similar scenarios playing out in 2025.

Main competition

Let's first look at the main competition Sasaki faces.

Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews and Chicago Cubs infielder Matt Shaw serve as the No. 2 and 3 contenders by the NL Rookie of the Year odds.

Both players offer the power-speed combination that Colton Cowser - who finished as the runner-up to Gil - lacked last year. If Wyatt Langford had managed to stay healthy for the Texas Rangers, he may have challenged Gil for the award in the same way Crews or Shaw could with Sasaki this year.

Voters will face a difficult time passing up on a player who records a 20-20 season if the pitcher who serves as their main competition doesn't produce an especially Skenes-like year.

Dodgers' injury woes/roster manipulation

That brings me to why I'm not sure I believe Sasaki can put together that type of campaign.

Call it a less-than-stellar medical staff or simply a smart organization, but the Dodgers have been toying with their injured list to limit their starters' innings for years.

In the last four full seasons, only three Dodgers pitchers - Walker Buehler in 2021, Julio Urias in 2021 and 2022, and Tyler Anderson in 2022 - have thrown at least 150 innings.

Yamamoto lasted only 90 innings last year, and he wasn't limited during his time in Japan. He threw 164 innings during his final season with the Orix Buffaloes, while Sasaki has failed to top 130 in any of his years as a professional.

2025 projections

It's not surprising then to see Sasaki is projected for around 130 innings this year. Steamer expects him to finish with a respectable 3.31 ERA, and he could be one of the game's better pitchers when on the mound.

However, the issue with this bet is how often he'll be out there. Are 130 innings enough when you're anyone not named Paul Skenes?

Best NL Rookie of the Year bet

Matt Shaw (+500 via Caesars)

You may have seen in my MLB best bets to make before spring training that I targeted the AL Rookie of the Year race. Well, if I was to also bet on the NL award before spring training, my pick would be Shaw.

I don't love that the Cubs signed Justin Turner, but I still believe Shaw will be the Opening Day third baseman. Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong could form one of the nastiest base-stealing duos leaguewide.

Shaw hit 21 homers and stole 31 bases across 121 Double-A and Triple-A games last year. He doesn't strike out a ton and takes a high number of walks, the latter being an area of improvement from 2023.

The Cubs' lineup looks super impressive, with power and speed from top to bottom, and Shaw should serve as a key piece for a team that expects to contend by the MLB playoff odds.

Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boosts

New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. bonus is ten 100% Profit Boost tokens. Profit Boost tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. Full terms.    

Claim Boosts
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

NL Rookie of the Year betting history

YearPlayerTeamPositionPreseason odds
2024Paul SkenesPiratesSP+3000
2023Corbin CarrollDiamondbacksOF+400
2022Michael HarrisBravesOFOFF
2021Jonathan IndiaReds2BOFF
2020Devin WilliamsBrewersRPOFF
2019Pete AlonsoMets1B+600
2018Ronald AcunaBravesOFN/A
2017Cody BellingerDodgersOFN/A
2016Corey SeagerDodgersSSN/A
2015Kris BryantCubs3B/OFN/A

MLB Rookie of the Year FAQs

Who are the Rookie of the Year favorites?

Jasson Dominguez of the New York Yankees and Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively.

When will the Rookie of the Year winners be announced?

The 2024 MLB Rookie of the Year Award winners were announced on Monday, Nov. 18. We expect the 2025 awards to be announced sometime in mid-November.

Who won the Rookie of the Year awards last year?

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil and Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes won the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively, in 2024.

MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB MVP OddsMLB Cy Young Award Odds
World Series MVP OddsMLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Win Totals

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.