MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Judge, Ohtani Way Out in Front as Early Favorites
It's never too early to think about dingers, and who will launch the most baseballs high into the upper reaches of ballparks during the 2025 MLB season.
Some of our best MLB betting sites have been giving that plenty of thought, with early MLB home run leader odds now available. There are some familiar names atop the board, with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani as the favorites.
Judge clubbed 58 homers to lead MLB in 2024, and Ohtani wasn't far behind him with 54. There was a significant gap to Anthony Santander's 44.
Judge and Ohtani also predictably lead the MLB MVP odds in their respective leagues, and they play for two of the leading World Series odds contenders.
Home run leader odds 2025
(MLB home run leader odds based on the top MLB odds)
Some other notes on the early home run leader odds:
- Judge is far out in front with an implied probability of 18.8% and Ohtani sits at 12.50%, but then there's a cliff dive to Kyle Schwarber at 7.69%
- Ohtani and Judge are the only two below +1200 odds
- The dominance of Judge and Ohtani is making the odds longer for some sluggers down below, with Gunnar Henderson for example getting +3000 odds (3.23%) after finishing ninth with 31 homers last year
Home run leader odds favorites
Aaron Judge home run leader odds (+450)
It's not hard to connect the dots between staying healthy and catapulting balls to netherworlds for Judge.
He's played 150-plus games just three times in his career, and two of those campaigns came over the past three seasons. He led MLB in home runs during both of those recent seasons, including setting an American League record with 62 in 2022.
Health concerns will always linger for an outfielder set to turn 33 years old early next season. But he remains a terrifying power threat when on the field.
Best odds: +450 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 18.8%
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Shohei Ohtani home run leader odds (+700)
Incredibly, Ohtani became the first player to record 50-plus home runs and stolen bases in a single season this past year.
His 54 homers led the NL, which came after he smacked 44 in 2023 over only 135 games. Ohtani also finished with a 1.036 OPS, which was second to only Judge leaguewide. And he's posted an average exit velocity in the top 1% of baseball for two straight seasons.
Best odds: +700 via Caesars | Implied probability: 12.50%
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Home run leader odds players to watch
Juan Soto home run leader odds (+2800)
A move across town to the New York Mets means Juan Soto no longer gets to benefit from the short porch at Yankee Stadium for half his games. He goes from a home stadium that allowed the third-most long balls last year to one that sits in the middle at 15th.
The friendly confines of Yankee Stadium were surely a factor in Soto's power surge last year. But his 41 homers in 2024 weren't significantly higher than the outfielder's 35 in 2023 while playing for the San Diego Padres, and Petco Park ranked 12th in homers last season.
Best odds: +2800 via Caesars | Implied probability: 3.45%
Brent Rooker home run leader odds(+3000)
This market is rooted in long shots rising up. Judge is a clear exception to that recently, but the history of MLB home run leaders features plenty of players who began the year with very lengthy odds (see below).
And if you're going to sprinkle a little on a long-shot candidate, make it a guy who sells out for the exact outcome you want.
Brent Rooker hammered 30-plus homers for the second straight year in 2024, ending up with a career-high 39 to finish tied for fifth leaguewide. He did that over 145 games too, and the Oakland Athletics will also be moving away from the homer wasteland that was Oakland Coliseum.
And his powerful season came during a year when he ranked in the bottom 10% in strikeout rate.
Best odds: +3000 via Caesars | Implied probability: 3.23%
How to bet on MLB home run leader odds
Betting on the MLB home run leader odds is straightforward. First, pick a reputable sportsbook offering MLB home run leader futures. Check the odds for various players; for instance, if Player A has +300 odds and Player B has +700, Player A is favored to win.
Place your bet by deciding how much to wager. If you bet $100 on Player A at +300 and they win, you’ll get $400 back ($100 stake + $300 profit). Keep an eye on player performances throughout the season to gauge your bet’s potential.
Now, why do odds move in future markets? It’s all about performance and perception. If a player performs exceptionally well or poorly, their odds will shift. Injuries to the player or their competitors can also significantly impact their MLB home run leader chances.
The success of the player’s team can improve their odds as well. Public betting trends play a role; if many people are betting on one player, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to balance their risk. Expert analysis and predictions can also influence how people bet, affecting the odds. Understanding these factors helps you make informed bets and potentially take advantage of favorable odds movements.
How to read MLB home run leader odds
Reading MLB home run leader odds involves understanding the implied probability and potential payouts associated with each player's odds of leading MLB in home runs. MLB home run leader odds are typically presented in American odds.
These use plus and minus symbols to indicate underdogs and favorites, respectively. For instance, if a player's odds are +500, a $100 bet would result in a $500 profit if the player wins, while odds of -200 would mean that a $200 bet is required to win $100 in profit.
When reading MLB home run leader odds, lower odds indicate that a player has a higher probability of winning the award, while higher odds suggest that a player is considered less likely to win. Bettors should consider factors such as a player's performance, team success, and narrative appeal when evaluating MLB home run leader odds.
It's also important to compare odds across different sportsbooks to identify the best value bets. Additionally, bettors should keep in mind that MLB home run leader odds can fluctuate throughout the season based on player performance, injuries, and other factors, so staying informed and monitoring odds changes can be crucial for making informed betting decisions.
Recent MLB home run leaders
| Year | Player | Team | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | +375 |
| 2023 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | +2500 |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | +1300 |
| 2021 | Salvador Perez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays | Perez: N/A, Guerrero: +5000 |
| 2020 | Luke Voit | New York Yankees | N/A |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | New York Mets | N/A |
| 2018 | Khris Davis | Oakland Athletics | +4000 |
| 2017 | Giancarlo Stanton | Miami Marlins | +750 |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo | Baltimore Orioles | +5000 |
| 2015 | Chris Davis | Baltimore Orioles | +1800 |
| 2014 | Nelson Cruz | Baltimore Orioles | +3500 |
Home run leader FAQs
Who's the favorite to lead MLB in home runs during 2025?
Aaron Judge of the Yankees is the current favorite while getting a market-best price of +450 via DrafKings. Those odds translate to an 18.18% implied probability.
Who led MLB in home runs during 2024?
Judge also led MLB in home runs during the 2024 season while hitting 58 dingers.
When will the 2025 MLB home run leader be decided?
Whoever leads MLB in home runs at the conclusion of the regular season will win this market. The 2025 season ends on Sept. 28.
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