Sony Open Picks & Odds 2025: Back Kitayama to Win Outright
The 2025 Sony Open in Hawaii is predicted to be won by Hideki Matsuyama, according to the PGA Tour odds which list the former tournament champion as a heavy consensus betting favorite. My best Sony Open pick to win outright at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu looks elsewhere for better value.
The PGA Tour remains in Hawaii for the second straight week. Unfortunately for the rest of the 144-man Sony Open field, so does Matsuyama. He won last week's The Sentry in record fashion at 35-under par and carries Sony Open odds to win as short as +750 this week (11.76% implied win probability).
Here's a look at the live Sony Open odds, along with my best pick to win before the tournament tees off on Thursday.
Sony Open pick to win
Kurt Kitayama
Kitayama missed out on the 2024 FedEx Cup odds partly due to a missed cut in the Wyndham Championship. He returned for the fall swing as one of the most consistent golfers.
He finished T-25 in the Black Desert Championship before a T-9 in the Shriners Children's Open and a fifth-place showing the Zozo Championship. He didn't played last week's Sentry, so I like his rest advantage against those who've been in Hawaii for two-plus weeks.
Kitayama played this tournament each of the past three years and improved his finish each year, leading to a T-24 a year ago. His strong short game and iron play make him an excellent course fit.
The +4000 odds to win via our FanDuel promo code would return an extra $50 in profit on a winning $10 ticket compared to the +3500 odds from DraftKings and BetMGM.
Best odds: +4000 via FaDuel | Implied win probability: 2.44%
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Sony Open odds 2025
Live Sony Open odds update in real time.
Sony Open odds favorite 2025
Hideki Matsuyama Sony Open odds: +900
Best odds: +900 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 10%
This would be a prohibitive price tag in almost any other circumstance, but I won't be able to fault anyone who wants to bet on Matsuyama's Sony Open odds (+900) this week. Most of our best golf betting sites are aligned with +900 odds as of Wednesday. Be sure to avoid the market-low +750 odds from Caesars in the outright market.
Matsuyama couldn't miss last week at Kapalua and ranked near the top of the field in all meaningful metrics - including a field-best 3.15 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round. He returns to a course where he won in a playoff at 23-under par in 2022.
Matsuyama's play around the greens may be the only question heading to Waialae, but that won't matter if his approach play remains strong.
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My first click
Sahith Theegala to win
Best Sony Open odds: +3500 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 2.78%
Theegala's played just six career competitive rounds at Waialae Country Club with a T-48 finish in 2022 and a missed cut last year. But that's not deterring me as his excellence in the short game should make him a perfect course fit.
Theegala ranks first among all qualified golfers with 0.53 strokes gained: around-the-green per round over the past six months. The 27-year-old California native enters the week at No. 13 in the OWGR and is the third-best golfer in the field by that measure. Yet, he's 10th by the consensus odds.
A winning $10 bet on Theegala to win the Sony Open would return a profit of $350 via our bet365 bonus code.
2025 Sony Open tournament info
- Where: Waialae Country Club (Honolulu)
- When: Thursday, Jan. 9 - Sunday, Jan. 12
- Field: 144
- Favorite: Hideki Matsuyama (+900 via DraftKings)
- Purse: $8.7 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
Sony Open odds history
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Grayson Murray | -17 (playoff) | +40000 |
| 2023 | Si Woo Kim | -18 | +4000 |
| 2022 | Hideki Matsuyama | -23 (playoff) | +1800 |
| 2021 | Kevin Na | -21 | +6000 |
| 2020 | Cameron Smith | -11 (playoff) | +4000 |
| 2019 | Matt Kuchar | -22 | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patton Kizzire | -17 (playoff) | +6000 |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas | -27 | +1500 |
| 2016 | Fabian Gomez | -20 (playoff) | +8000 |
| 2015 | Jimmy Walker | -23 | +1500 |
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