Zozo Championship Expert Picks & Odds 2024: Schauffele Leads Top-Heavy Field to Accordia
The PGA Tour returns to Chiba, Japan with Xander Schauffele the outright betting favorite by this week's PGA Tour golf odds to win the 2024 Zozo Championship.
Schauffele is leading a small group of elite golfers as the favorite by the Zozo Championship odds across our best golf betting sites. With odds to win around +450, we had to get creative to feature the top-ranked player in the field in our Zozo Championship expert picks.
There's a 78-man field set for the event at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club for the sixth running of this tournament (fifth in Japan).
We're breaking down this week's golf odds for the favorites, along with my first pick to win.
Zozo Championship odds
Zozo Championship odds via BetMGM as of Oct. 21 and subject to change.
| Name | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵 | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Sungjae Im 🇰🇷 | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Sahith Theegala 🇺🇸 | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Justin Thomas 🇺🇸 | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Kurt Kitayama 🇺🇸 | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Min Woo Lee 🇦🇺 | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Beau Hossler 🇺🇸 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
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Zozo Championship expert picks
Odds from our best golf betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Kurt Kitayama top 10 finish (+225 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Xander Schauffele first-round leader (+1200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Beau Hossler top 20 finish (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Zozo Championship key stats
- Total driving
- Approach
- Around the green
I typically like to back golfers that are hitting fairways and setting themselves up with good looks on approach, and while distance at Accordia is generally a little longer than your average PGA Tour stops, total driving is a good indicator of who has pop off the tee on top of being able to find the short grass.
Without true ShotLink data guiding us, it’s hard to get exact measurements compared to other courses. Still, around the green play and approach are more toward the higher end of PGA Tour events than your other statistical categories in the PGA Tour’s now annual Japanese stop.
Zozo Championship predictions
Kurt Kitayama top 10 finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +225 via betRivers | Implied probability: 30.77%
Kitayama’s biggest drawback in his last 20 rounds of competitive golf has been his putting. On a course that doesn’t require you to be at the top of the heap with the flat stick, I like taking a chance.
Kitayama finished in the top 30 here two years ago and improved on that with a top 20 finish last year (T-16).
Ranked 36th on the entire PGA Tour in total driving, he should be able to take advantage of his distance and lights out approach game to continue his streak of good play, which includes two top 10 finishes in his last four competitive events, including last week at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Xander Schauffele first-round leader ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +1200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 7.69%
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The odds on Xander in almost every category reflect the fact that he has an argument for being the best golfer on the planet, with all due respect to Scottie Scheffler.
Dating back to the Players Championship in March, Schauffele has played in 15 events, including the Olympics, and finished outside the top 10 only thrice. Eight of those finishes were in the top five, including two major championship wins.
Easily the best golfer in the field, Schauffele has played in this event every year since its inception and has openly admitted what this tournament means to him as Japan is where his mother was raised and where he still has extended family and relatives that come and watch him play every year.
This specific market and odds are based on getting a much bigger number on the best golfer in the field than any finishing positions or even an outright winner.
Beau Hossler top 20 finish ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +120 via Caesars | Implied probability: 45.45%
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I am highlighting the top 20 finish on Hossler as it is plus money at Caesars (also DraftKings) even though I believe in Hossler enough to ladder this up to a top-five finish (you can get him at some books at +700).
Hossler has played the Zozo twice, logging a T-16 and a T-2 last year, and has been playing blistering golf in this fall season, placing second at Sanderson Farms Championship, 11th at the Black Desert Championship, 23rd last week at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Hossler carries plus distance and plus accuracy on the field and is an extraordinary player around the green. All of his statistical information paired with his course history make the top 20 finish a great expected value play.
Zozo Championship picks: My first click
Pick made by Esten McLaren on Monday.
Sahith Theegala
Best odds: +1600 via bet365 | Implied probability: 5.88%
Theegala is making his third trip to Japan for this event after finishes of T-5 and T-19 in 2023. He returns for the first time as a PGA Tour winner after claiming his breakthrough victory in last September's Fortinet Championship.
Aside from the respectable course history, I'm drawn to the 13th-ranked golfer in the OWGR due to his course fit. He's long off the tee and excels with his short game. He's averaged 0.44 strokes gained: around-the-green across his last 20 measured rounds.
Our best sports betting sites are aligned with the +1600 odds for Theegala to win. Those odds would return a profit of $160 on a winning $10 bet.
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Zozo Championship info
- Where: Accordia Golf, Chiba, Japan
- When: Thursday, Oct. 24 - Sunday, Oct. 27
- Field: 78
- Favorite: Xander Schauffele (+450 via BetMGM)
- Purse: $8.5 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
Accordia Golf course profile
- Par: 70
- Length: 7,079 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Architect: Kinya Fujita
Past Zozo Championship winners, odds & scores
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Collin Morikawa | +1200 | -14 |
| 2022 | Keegan Bradley | +3000 | -15 |
| 2021 | Hideki Matsuyama | +1000 | -15 |
| 2020* | Patrick Cantlay | +3000 | -23 |
| 2019 | Tiger Woods | +4000 | -19 |
*The 2020 tournament was played at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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