Shriners Children’s Open Expert Picks & Predictions: 2024 TPC Summerlin Preview
The Shriners Tom Kim Children's Open returns to TPC Summerlin with Kim looking to win this event for the third straight year.
Kim is the consensus betting favorite by the Shriners Children's Open odds across our best golf betting sites. The 22-year-old claimed two of his first three PGA Tour victories in Las Vegas and is still searching for his first win of 2024.
However, we're looking elsewhere with our expert picks for the PGA Tour's annual stop at TPC Summerlin in Last Vegas.
Kim's the top-ranked golfer in the field at No. 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but he's playing competitively for the first time (other than the Presidents Cup) since his FedEx Cup Playoffs run ended at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August.
Shriners Children's Open odds
Shriners Children's Open odds via BetMGM as of Oct. 15 and subject to change.
| Name | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kim 🇰🇷 | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Taylor Pendrith 🇨🇦 | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Davis Thompson 🇺🇸 | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Beau Hossler 🇺🇸 | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Kurt Kitayama 🇺🇸 | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Seamus Power 🇮🇪 | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Adam Hadwin 🇨🇦 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Cam Davis 🇦🇺 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Eric Cole 🇺🇸 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Keith Mitchell 🇺🇸 | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
Shriners Children's Open favorite
Tom Kim
Best odds: +1200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 7.69%
Kim is the two-time defending champion of this event and easily the top-ranked golfer in the 132-man fall field. Still, this field is stronger than others we've seen thus far during the fall swing.
Other than a strong individual showing in the Presidents Cup, Kim has struggled since his disappointing eighth-place finish in the OIympics. His failure to medal meant he didn't become exempt from South Korea's mandatory military service.
That seemed to take a mental toll on the 22-year-old, who exited the FEC Playoffs following a T-50 finish in the FedEx St. Jude Championship. That has him not yet exempt to next year's signature events.
A third straight win in the Shriners Children's Open would go a long way to securing Kim's position on the PGA Tour and in those marquee events. Just be sure to get the 14-1 odds rather than the +1200 tickets found elsewhere if you want to bet on the tournament favorite.
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Shriners Children’s Open expert picks
Odds from our best golf betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Seamus Power to win (+3300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patton Kizzire top 40 (+110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Davis Thompson top 10 (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shriners Children’s Open key stats
- Tee to Green
- Ball Striking
- Scrambling/around the green
TPC Summerlin is one of the more static courses in the PGA Tour rotation. It’s a place where you can lean into course history to give you a good predictor of a golfer’s success here and that should remain sticky.
It has wider than average fairways, it’s not overly long, and you can score here.
Where it will trip you up is around the green and scrambling. In last year's Shriners Children's Open, golfers who made the cut were, on average, 12% better than cut missers in scrambling and around the green play.
Top 20 players were 6% better than the rest of the cut-making field in the same category, a whopping 18% better than those who missed the cut.
Shriners Children’s Open predictions
Seamus Power to win ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +3300 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 2.94%
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Heading right back to the well with Power, who got close for us last week in the top European market, save for a lousy first round. Power signed a card for 1-over par in the first round and proceeded to rip off three straight under-par rounds to finish tied for 11th at 15-under.
It’s his ninth straight made cut and he’s placed T-10 and two straight T-11 finishes in three of his past four outings. Power ranks in the top 25 of the field in every major statistical category I am looking at, save for distance, and even then he’s above field average and averages 300 yards on the season. That's in line with what to expect at TPC Summerlin.
The last cherry on top is that he is 22nd overall on the entire PGA Tour in scrambling, not just this weaker field.
FanDuel is giving us 33-to-1 on Mr. Power while the rest of the books fall between 22-to-1 and 30-to-1.
Patton Kizzire top 40 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +110 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 47.62%
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Normally I like to find prices that provide a little more bang for your buck, but this feels a little like free money - or as close as it comes in golf and sports betting.
Kizzire won the ProCore Championship earlier this fall and followed up with a tie for 11th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a tie for 43rd in the Black Desert Championship.
Kizzire is strong in scrambling, 44th on the entire PGA Tour - again, not just field rank - and is top 25 in the field in putting and tee-to-green play. He’ll look to continue his strong play while sitting 70th in the FedEx Cup standings, where if he can move into the top 60, guarantees himself a spot at two initial 2025 signature events.
Plus money on a golfer who has made the cut four of five times at a sticky course and is playing the best golf of his season is something I’m always willing to take on.
Davis Thompson top 10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +300 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 25%
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Thompson had his breakthrough on the PGA Tour, winning the John Deere Classic in July, part of a scorching stretch that saw him include a top 10 at a U.S. Open and a top-two finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Thompson has played TPC Summerlin twice, making the cut both times and finishing T-12 and T-35, showing knowledge and capability here.
Thompson isn’t overwhelming in any specific statistical category, but he is one of the sturdiest in all categories, lending credence to his strong overall game with few weaknesses. Solid course history, the comparative strength of the field, and four top 10 finishes on the year - including a win - point to a golfer who knows how to succeed in these moments.
Shriners Children's Open info
- Where: TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas
- When: Thursday, Oct. 17 - Sunday, Oct. 20
- Field: 132
- Favorite: Tom Kim (+1400 via BetMGM)
- Purse: $7 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
TPC Summerlin course profile
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,255 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Architect: Bobby Weed
Past Shriners Children's Open winners, odds & scores
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tom Kim | +1400 | -20 |
| 2022 | Tom Kim | +2500 | -24 |
| 2021 | Sungjae Im | +3000 | -24 |
| 2020 | Martin Laird | +20000 | -23 (playoff) |
| 2019 | Kevin Na | +6000 | -23 (playoff) |
| 2018 | Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 | -21 |
| 2017 | Patrick Cantlay | +2000 | -9 (playoff) |
| 2016 | Rod Pampling | Field (+400) | -20 |
| 2015 | Smylie Kaufman | Field (+375) | -16 |
| 2014 | Ben Martin | Field (+200) | -20 |
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