American Express Picks & Odds 2025: Harry Hall Tops Best Outright Bets to Win
PGA West in La Quinta, Calif. hosts this week's PGA Tour stop with the 2025 American Express teeing off Thursday and set to run through Sunday. Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im are the betting favorites - replacing Xander Schauffele - but I'm looking a little further down the board with my best American Express picks to win.
Schauffele - the No. 2 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) - withdrew earlier this week. Im (+1200) ans Thomas (+1400) have taken his place atop the American Express oddsboard at our best golf betting sites.
Many in the field will look to follow suit of Nick Dunlap who won this event as a PGA Tour rookie with long-shot odds of +30000 last year.
American Express pick to win
Harry Hall
Hall enters this week at a career-best 82nd in the OWGR following back-to-back top-10 finishes to open the season. He tied for eighth in The Sentry and then for 10th in the Sony Open. The travel back to the continental U.S. could be the only thing holding him back at PGA West.
Hall missed the cut in this event last year but had previous finishes of T-47 and T-41. It's his current form that catches my attention, as he has gained strokes in each of the key metrics, including 1.14 SG: tee-to-green and 0.46 SG: around-the-green. He also ranks in the top portion of the field in driving distance.
Best odds: +4500 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 2.17%
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American Express long-shot pick
Mac Meissner (+9000 odd to win)
Meissner's coming off a T-21 finish last week in which he ranked fourth in the field for the week with 1.48 SG: approach while also gaining 1.09 strokes per round from tee to green.
The American enters this week at No. 146 in the OWGR after playing his first full PGA Tour season last year. He missed only one cut in 10 events since the end of June, including his respectable 2025 start in Hawaii.
Over those last six-plus months, Meissner is averaging 0.57 SG: approach per round. His putting stroke has been a little inconsistent but showed signs of life last week. He also ranked 23rd on the PGA Tour in proximity to the pin on approaches from 75-100 yards last season, and that'll be a key distance at this week's three-course rotation.
Best odds: +9000 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 1.10%
American Express odds 2025
Live American Express odds update in real time.
American Express odds favorite 2025
Justin Thomas American Express odds: +1600
Thomas is coming off a T-26 finish in the season-opening Sentry Signature Event in Hawaii. He had a co-runner-up finish in the Zozo Championship during the fall swing but the 31-year-old hasn't won since the 2022 PGA Championship.
The Kentucky native made his debut in this event last year and finished T-3 as part of a strong start to the campaign.
DraftKings has Thomas' odds at a market-low of +1200. There's value in these BetMGM odds with a $10 fetching an extra $40 in profit compared to DraftKings. Use our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS1550 for up to $1,550 in bonus bets.
Best odds: +1600 via BetMGM | Implied win probability: 5.88%
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My first click
Mackenzie Hughes to win (+12000)
Hughes missed the cut in the Sony Open in Hawaii, but I actually like those added two days of rest coming back to the continental U.S. as an advantage over those who in this field who played the weekend.
The Canadian checks my main three statistical boxes of strokes gained: around-the-green, SG: approach, and driving distance. He missed the cut in his two previous appearances in this event and hasn't typically performed well on West Coast greens, but at his best he's as good of a putter as anyone in any field.
Best odds: +12000 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 0.83%
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2025 American Express tournament info
- Where: Pete Dye Stadium Course (La Quinta, Calif.)
- When: Thursday, Jan. 16 - Sunday, Jan. 19
- Field: 156
- Favorite: Justin Thomas (+1600 via BetMGM)
- Purse: $8.8 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
American Express betting history
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Nick Dunlap | -29 | +30000 |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | -27 | +750 |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford | -23 | +15000 |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim | -23 | +6000 |
| 2020 | Andrew Landry | -26 | +20000 |
| 2019 | Adam Long | -26 | +1000 (Field) |
| 2018 | Jon Rahm | -22 (playoff) | +800 |
| 2017 | Hudson Swafford | -20 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Jason Dufner | -25 (playoff) | +4000 |
| 2015 | Bill Haas | -22 | +2500 |
How to bet on golf
When it comes to golf betting, it's essential to understand the various types of wagers available and how to assess player performance effectively.
- Outright winners
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- Proposition bets tailored to specific tournament events, like hole-in-one occurrences or player performances on designated holes
Once you've determined your preferred bet types, conduct thorough research on players, course conditions, recent form, and other pertinent factors that could influence outcomes.
Delve into player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may impact a player's chances of success.
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