Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Prediction & Picks Tonight: Boca Raton Bowl
One of the best mascot matchups of the season takes place when Big Red and Duke Dog are on the field together as Western Kentucky and James Madison clash. The Boca Raton Bowl showdown takes Wednesday at 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla.
Our Western Kentucky vs. James Madison prediction envisions the Dukes' defense getting the better of the Hilltoppers. However, the unit will need to deal with Hilltoppers QB Cade Veltkamp. He's playing in a bowl game for the second consecutive season despite being in the transfer portal both times.
On the other side, James Madison signal-caller Alonza Barnett is out, but that hasn't stopped the best college football betting sites from making JMU the 7-point favorite.
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Western Kentucky vs. James Madison prediction & best pick: Boca Raton Bowl
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: James Madison -7 (-109 via BetRivers) vs. Western Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: George Pettaway Over 62.5 rushing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison ATS prediction
James Madison to cover the spread: -7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 52.15%
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This matchup is tough to get a good feel on because Western Kentucky has so many key players in the transfer portal, and James Madison is without Barnett. With that said, the Dukes' defense is poised to reign supreme.
Even with Veltkamp set to play for the Hilltoppers, JMU's defense is among the best in the Group of Five. Led by Eric O'Neill on the defensive line and Terrence Spence in the secondary, the Dukes are 47th in SP+ and allow just 20.8 points per game, 27th best in the nation.
While Veltkamp was among the best players in the Conference USA this season, WKU's offense was never consistent - ranking 96th in SP+. And the WKU star QB is in for his toughest matchup of the season against a Dukes defense that's 21st in EPA per dropback.
The Dukes are kings of this hill
Not having Barnett is going to make things more difficult for the Dukes, especially with how inexperienced backup Billy Atkins is, but the Hilltoppers have an overrated defense.
WKU is just 89th in EPA per rush and 96th in EPA per dropback on defense and is tasked with slowing JMU without several starters. Tyson Summers' unit has five starters in the transfer portal.
Leaning on running back George Pettaway, Bob Chesney's team should be able to score enough to cover. If the Dukes win by more than seven, a $10 bet pays a $9.17 profit.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison best pick
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George Pettaway Over 62.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -117 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.92%
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It's hard to understand why this line is so low for Pettaway, especially at Caesars - our other best sports betting sites have this prop set at 65.5. The North Carolina transfer has gone for 63-plus rushing yards in eight games this season, including six of his last seven.
Western Kentucky's run defense is atrocious - allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the country (221.9) - and is down its three best front seven players.
Pettaway is one of the most explosive runners outside of the Power 4, too; his 31 runs of 10-plus yards rank 10th in the G5 this season, per PFF. So he should clear this line with ease and turn a $10 bet into an $8.55 profit.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds movement
James Madison continues to get much of the attention against the spread during the hours leading up to kickoff, with 63% of the action heading their way.
This line opened back on Dec. 10, with James Madison as the -7 favorites. That dropped to -9.5 at one point, but it's now back to around -7 or -7.5 at our best sportsbooks.
Meanwhile, the total has been steadily falling after opening at 53.5. It went as low as 49.5 before rebounding a touch and now sitting at 50.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison live odds
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison opening odds:
- Western Kentucky: +6.5 (-110)
- James Madison: -6.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison injuries
Boca Raton Bowl game info
- When: Wednesday, Dec. 18
- Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET
- Where: FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 79 degrees, 34% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SE
- Favorite: James Madison -7 (-110 via DraftKings)
College football betting odds pages
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