UNLV vs. San Jose State Prediction Tonight: College Football Week 13 Picks
Two Mountain West teams clash tonight at 10 p.m. ET (FS1) when the San Jose State Spartans (6-4) host the No. 24 UNLV Rebels (8-2) at CEFCU Stadium.
The Rebels have won four of five games ahead of this one, though our UNLV vs. San Jose State prediction is focused on the total between these two conference foes.
Be sure to check out the rest of our college football Week 13 predictions.
UNLV vs. San Jose State prediction & best bet
The Rebels opened as 7.5-point favorites across our best sportsbooks for this conference, and that's where the point spread sits tonight ahead of kickoff.
That comes even with 56% of the bets on the road favorites, with a similar 54% of bet slips coming on the Over. We're on the other side of the total in a matchup that we don't expect to live up to the fireworks that many expect.
UNLV vs. San Jose State prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: San Jose State +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Under 61.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV vs. San Jose State ATS prediction: Week 13
San Jose State to cover the spread: +7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV vs. San Jose State opening odds:
- UNLV -7.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- San Jose State +7.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Spartan resilience
San Jose State has been resilient following its four losses in 2024. The Spartans are 3-3 in the Mountain West but have not lost back-to-back all season.
They prefer to air it out with QB Walker Eget, who has recorded 30 or more pass attempts in five straight starts for San Jose State. He’s completed 68 percent or higher against Boise State and Colorado State, bailing out a stagnant rushing attack.
UNLV has won all five of its road games this year but it's covered -7.5 in just three of these matchups. Expect San Jose State’s defense to remain stout against the run - allowing 3.7 YPC in 2024 - while continuing to force turnovers to gain momentum.
Home-field advantage
The home-field advantage is real when it comes to San Jose State’s chances of covering +7.5. Yes, the Spartans did just lose by three touchdowns to Boise State at home in Week 12, but they had their hands full with Heisman Trophy odds contender Ashton Jeanty.
San Jose State won all four of its previous home games before Boise State, while UNLV has not consistently covered -7.5 on the road. The Rebels won by eight at Oregon State, while their last road game was a 29-27 win over Hawaii.
Getting a touchdown with a home underdog on the point spread feels like the right bet to make in this Mountain West clash.
Our Mike Spector also likes the Spartans as he laid out in his college football Week 13 upset picks.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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UNLV vs. San Jose State best bet
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Under 61.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Spartans' offense
While San Jose State should be competitive throughout this game, it’ll be up to the defense to manufacture stops. The Spartans’ offense has scored 24 or fewer points in five consecutive games.
UNLV’s defense has recorded three interceptions in its last two games and has held opponents to 3.4 YPC in 2024. This will make San Jose State’s run game difficult to establish, which is already a sub-par unit.
The Spartans’ offense will become one-dimensional and try to win the game by airing it out against a UNLV secondary that has allowed two or more passing touchdowns in four of its last six games played.
Ultimately, I believe we will get a final score of 34-27 or 28-21, finishing under 61.5 total points.
Two good run defenses
Both of these programs have good run defenses, which will have a bigger impact on UNLV. The Rebels have recorded 40 or more carries in four of their last five games played, while San Jose is holding opponents to 3.7 YPC in 2024.
Before getting blown open by Jeanty last week, the Spartans had allowed two rushing touchdowns across three total games. San Jose has not been great at containing the pass, which UNLV has turned away from following its change at quarterback.
UNLV has gone Under 61.5 total points in four straight games and it won’t be much different tonight in San Jose. Let’s stake a unit on Under 61.5 total points with two opponents who are effective at stopping the run.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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UNLV vs. San Jose State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
UNLV vs. San Jose State live odds
UNLV vs. San Jose State opening odds:
- UNLV: -7.5 (-102 via FanDuel)
- San Jose State: +7.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
UNLV vs. San Jose State game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 22
- Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where: CEFCU Stadium (San Jose, Calif.)
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 61 degrees, 49% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph S
- Favorite: UNLV -7.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
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