Toledo vs. Akron Prediction & Picks Tonight: College Football Week 14
Despite not being able to qualify for the MAC Championship, Toledo can win eight games for the third straight season under Jason Candle if the Rockets take care of business against Akron tonight at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) from InfoCision Stadium.
- Our Toledo vs. Akron prediction expects the Rockets to look more like the team that was a Group of Five College Football Playoff odds contender before the season
- Toledo has a 13-9 lead in its series against Akron, and has won four straight meetings
- If the Zips can win, it will be their first four-win season since 2018
In the first game of our Week 14 college football predictions, we think Toledo is poised to embarrass Akron.
Toledo vs. Akron betting splits for tonight
The Rockets opened between 8.5 and 10.5-point favorites across most of our best sportsbooks, and the line has seen little movement ahead of kickoff tonight.
Toledo is a 7.5 to 8.5-point favorite at most books now, and 63% of the money is on the Rockets to cover with just 37% on Akron. Meanwhile, 68% of the money is on the Over with it hovering around 49.
Toledo vs. Akron prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Toledo -7.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Over 48.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Toledo vs. Akron ATS prediction: Week 14
Toledo to cover the spread: -7.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Prepare for launch
The Rockets are -7.5 at FanDuel and have covered this number in five of 11 games this season. This includes twice in seven contests against MAC opponents.
Toledo has yet to lose back-to-back games outright in 2024 and is coming off of an embarrassing 24-7 loss to Ohio at home, during which the Rockets were held to 192 total yards of offense and 0.8 YPC.
Those represented their worst metrics in any game this season, so expect head coach Jason Candle to prepare his offense to go ballistic against an Akron defense ranked 116th out of 134 FBS teams.
The Zips have two wins against horrible defenses in the MAC, beating Eastern Michigan 25-21 and Kent State 38-17 in Week 13.
Akron has lost by eight or more points in four of seven conference games and has covered +7.5 only twice at home during conference play.
Zip it
There’s no edge to gain by backing Akron in this matchup against Toledo. The Rockets are holding opponents to a 58.2% completion rate and 3.6 YPC this season.
The Zips’ offense has been held to a 56% completion rate in four consecutive games, even against bottom-tier defenses like Eastern Michigan and Kent State. Four of their seven conference matchups have also resulted in 3.3 YPC or worse, so facing Toledo’s run defense presents a major mismatch for Akron to overcome.
Akron has forced only one turnover in its past three games and two in its last five matchups, while committing 11 turnovers on offense during this five-game span.
Fumbles are a real issue and Toledo will exploit this weakness by forcing turnovers and running up the score on Akron to easily cover -7.5.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Toledo vs. Akron best bet
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Over 48.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Akron's defensive deficiencies
We’ve already touched on Akron’s defensive deficiencies, which is why betting Over 48.5 total points is the best bet to make in this game.
The Zips have allowed a 63.5% completion rate and two or more passing touchdowns to opponents in nine of 11 games played in 2024.
Akron’s defense is also surrendering 4.1 YPC to 7.2 YPC against four of seven conference opponents. Toledo’s run offense was averaging 5.2 YPC and 4.3 YPC against Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan before running into Ohio’s buzzsaw run defense last week.
Expect the Rockets to be much more productive on the ground, leading to big explosives against an inferior Akron run defense.
Plus, Toledo’s passing attack, led by QB Tucker Gleason, has finished with 250 to 372 passing yards in four conference games this season. Akron’s porous defense is no match and will allow the Rockets to score at least 35 to 40 points on Tuesday night.
Gleason’s dual-threat ability
The Rockets have a fairly balanced offense but feed running back Connor Walendzak and Gleason plenty of carries. Lately, we’ve seen Gleason finish drives with his legs, scoring four rushing touchdowns in a three-game stretch before losing to Ohio.
Gleason’s mobility also allows him to extend plays from the pocket and draw defenders out of coverage, creating open receivers downfield.
Toledo receivers Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III each have at least 56 receptions for 679 yards, with Newton hauling in 10 touchdowns to lead the Rockets’ passing attack.
Akron’s pass defense doesn’t force turnovers and has allowed 27 to 41 points in five of seven MAC games played this year. The Zips will need to avoid a shutout to hit Over 48.5 total points, and their offense has gained confidence through the latter half of 2024, scoring 20 or more points in five of seven conference matchups.
While we’re banking primarily on Toledo to get us Over 48.5 total points with Gleason’s dual-threat ability in a plus-matchup, Akron’s offense has enough juice to score 10 to 13 points to cash Over 48.5 points as a home underdog in this rivalry game on Tuesday night.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
Toledo vs. Akron odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Toledo vs. Akron live odds
Toledo vs. Akron opening odds:
- Toledo: -10.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Akron: +10.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Toledo vs. Akron game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 26
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: InfoCision Stadium (Akron, Ohio)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 36 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph W
- Favorite: Toledo -7.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
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