Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction Tonight: College Football Playoff Picks
Three teams have punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, with the final spot on the line tonight when Tennessee squares off against Ohio State.
Our Tennessee vs. Ohio State prediction expects the Volunteers to keep it closer than the 7.5-point spread at the best college football betting sites suggest. Kickoff is slated for 8 p.m. ET (ABC) from Columbus, Ohio.
The Buckeyes are one of just four teams with +500 or shorter college football championship odds. However, many believe they have the best chance to be upset following their recent loss to Michigan.
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Tennessee vs. Ohio State prediction & best pick: College Football Playoff
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Quinshon Judkins Under 58.5 rushing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee vs. Ohio State ATS prediction
Tennessee to cover the spread: +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
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This game will lead to memories of old school football, the kind of football Woody Hayes respected. Neither of these teams would be in the playoff this year without devastating defenses, and that's why I'm expecting a low-scoring bar fight between the two.
While the Buckeyes should come out on top, the Vols can cover for the third straight game if they make enough plays on offense. Running back Dylan Sampson won SEC Offensive Player of the Year this season after rushing for the eighth-most yards after contact in the country (927) and forcing the seventh-most missed tackles (70), according to PFF.
Sampson's effectiveness has put the Vols 13th in EPA per rush, and he'll be able to take pressure off Nico Iamaleava and open things up for receiver Dont'e Thornton. The defense will do the rest if Tennessee can create enough explosive plays on offense.
The home of Reggie White, Al Wilson, Eric Berry
When Josh Heupel said "the standard at Tennessee is to be elite on defense," he meant it. The Volunteers boast players at every level of their defense who will be playing on Sundays, and they should take advantage of Ohio State's offensive line injuries.
Tennessee is No. 3 in SP+ on defense, with James Pearce Jr. and his 23.5% pass rush win rate leading the way. The team boasts one of the best all-around units in the country, and it allows the fourth-fewest yards per game (278.0).
With Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin out up front for the Buckeyes, Will Howard could be under serious pressure. And mistakes tend to happen when he's under duress. The Vols can cover if he stumbles enough, and a $10 bet pays an $8.33 profit.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State best pick
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Quinshon Judkins Under 58.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -117 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.92%
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The amount of money Ohio State's collective paid Quinshon Judkins to come to Columbus couldn't have been worth it. He's been struggling to put together consistent performances after a hot start to the season, with the running back averaging fewer than four yards per carry in five of his last seven games.
He's gone Under 58.5 rushing yards in all of those outings while averaging just 48.1 rushing yards per game. It's only going to get harder against Tennessee's defense, which sits No. 3 in EPA per rush with Pearce, Arion Carter, and Joshua Josephs leading the way. They've posted a combined 51 run stops.
The Vols are allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game in the country (99.3) and Judkins is already splitting carries with TreVeyon Henderson, which won't help his cause. If he runs for fewer than 58.5 yards for the third straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.55 profit.
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Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State live odds
Tennessee vs. Ohio State opening odds:
- Tennessee: +7.5 (-115)
- Ohio State: -7.5 (-105)
Tennessee vs. Ohio State odds movement
Ohio State opened as more than a touchdown favorite at the best sportsbooks. Despite a lot of public chatter surrounding the Buckeyes being on upset alert, the betting odds haven't budged in the build-up to the College Football Playoff contest.
DraftKings is one of the only books that lists the spread at anything other than Ohio State -7.5, but its -115 odds on the 7-point spread indicate a potential late movement back up to include the hook.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State injuries
Tennessee vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- How to watch: ABC, ESPN
- Weather: 27 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph NW
College football betting odds pages
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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