SMU vs. Penn State Prediction, Picks & Odds Today: College Football Playoff
After an exciting opening day of College Football Playoff action, which featured Notre Dame holding on to beat Indiana, we roll on with this showdown between the SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions.
Beaver Stadium plays host to this contest at noon ET (TNT/Max) on Saturday, and our SMU vs. Penn State prediction believes in the underdogs.
Penn State ranges from an 8-point to 9.5-point favorite at home against SMU, as our best college football betting sites aren't quite in agreement when it comes to this game. That tells us this could be tricky to predict, which is why we have you covered with the best advice as part of our College Football Playoff best bets for the opening round.
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SMU vs. Penn State prediction & best pick: College Football Playoff
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread prediction: SMU +9.5 (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Penn State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Over 53.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
SMU to cover the spread: +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
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The Mustangs' offense is explosive
SMU has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Mustangs rank sixth nationally in scoring offense (38.5 points per game), and they failed to score 28 points just once, at BYU early in the year.
Penn State has easily the best defense that SMU has seen to date. But the Mustangs showed in the second half of the ACC Championship Game that they can hang with the perennial powerhouses. Kevin Jennings and Co. are a big reason I believe the visitors can keep this contest close after hanging 31 on Clemson.
The Nittany Lions have struggled to cover the spread this year, doing so at a less than 50% clip (6-7). Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee's men posted a 61.5% cover rate during their debut campaign in the ACC.
We're not brave enough to pick the Ponies outright given Penn State is 59-11 at home under James Franklin over the past nine seasons. However, we'll take SMU to cover, even if the price is juiced (-125). BetMGM is the only one of our best sportsbooks to offer the Mustangs at a 9.5-point spread.
SMU vs. Penn State best pick
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Over 53.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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What do you get when two top-25 offenses in college football clash? More often than not, a lot of points. This is what we'll hope for as we project SMU and Penn State to go Over 53.5 points.
SMU has been one of the country's better teams toward the Over with an 8-5 record. While Penn State leans under (7-6 to the total for the year), it's not enough to talk us off this prediction.
The offenses average 72.1 combined points per game despite playing in two of the country's toughest conferences. The Mustangs and Nittany Lions have also seen their games surpass the 53.5-point mark 13 times this year, including each of their respective conference championships.
Caesars offers this play at standard juice, which carries an implied probability of 52.38%. A $10 winning wager on the Over would profit $9.09.
College Football Playoff expert picks
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SMU vs. Penn State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
SMU vs. Penn State live odds
SMU vs. Penn State opening odds:
- SMU: +8.5 (-152)
- Penn State: -8.5 (+105)
SMU vs. Penn State odds movement
This line has moved all over the place since opening. DraftKings has Penn State as an 8-point favorite while BetMGM has moved it to -9.5.
The majority of the action has been on the favorite, though, contrary to our pick.
SMU vs. Penn State injuries
College Football Playoff game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- How to watch: TNT/Max
- Weather: 27 degrees, 46% chance of precipitation, 16-mph wind NW
- Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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