SMU vs. Penn State Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: College Football Playoff
The Penn State Nittany Lions host the SMU Mustangs in the first round of the College Football Playoff, a clash that's featured heavily in our college bowl game predictions.
When making the best SMU vs. Penn State player prop picks for the College Football Playoff, it’s important to look at each team’s season as a whole. The Mustangs have posted impressive numbers, but they’ve faced a fairly easy schedule. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions were great this year, but they struggled on both sides of the ball in their two most significant games.
The Nittany Lions, who sit fifth in the college football championship odds, are favored by 8.5 for Saturday’s noon ET (TNT/Max) game at Beaver Stadium. But will their struggles against ranked opponents continue? Or can they shut down the Mustangs’ offense?
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SMU vs. Penn State college football player prop picks: College Football Playoff
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
- Kevin Jennings touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+290 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Drew Allar prop pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nicholas Singleton prop pick: Under 62.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
SMU vs. Penn State touchdown prediction
Kevin Jennings anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +290 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 25.64%
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Mustangs’ running back Brashard Smith has scored 18 touchdowns this season, but it’s Jennings who provides the most value to score a touchdown in this game. Jennings has rushed for five touchdowns this campaign, and he's scored twice in his last three outings.
The Nittany Lions are only allowing 16.4 points per game this season, but they're giving up 25.7 points per over their last contests. The Mustangs rank eighth in the nation in points per game, and Smith and Jennings account for most of that production.
FanDuel is asking +290 while Caesars and DraftKings are both featuring this prop for +180. That implies a difference in probability of over 10%. Take advantage of this excellent price through FanDuel.
Best SMU vs. Penn State prop picks
Drew Allar Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365| Implied probability: 53.49%
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Allar has thrown 21 touchdown passes this season, but he’s only chucked two-plus TD tosses in one of his last three games. He's also thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last 10 outings.
However, Clemson's Cade Klubnik just burned the Mustangs while throwing for four touchdowns against them. Additionally, the Mustangs have endured a hard time against the pass this season. They’re allowing 241.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 95th in the country.
The Nittany Lions are a run-first team, averaging 202.2 rushing yards per contest. But the best way to beat the Mustangs is to throw. That means a more significant game from Allar, who will finish out drives with touchdown passes, just like he did against the Oregon Ducks.
While FanDuel and BetMGM are asking -130 for this Over, bet365 is featuring it for just -115.
Nicholas Singleton Under 62.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Singleton has run for 838 yards this season while averaging 6.4 per carry. He ran for 105 yards on just 10 carries during the Big Ten Championship Game. It was the first time he topped 100 yards since the second game of the season.
Now Singleton takes on a Mustangs defense allowing just 98.3 rushing yards per game, ranking seventh in the nation. And the Mustangs aren’t only successful against the run because they benefit from big leads. They’re allowing just 2.8 yards per attempt, which ranks third-best in the country.
Singleton has only carried the ball more than 13 times once this season. He won’t come close to 6.4 yards per carry against SMU's defense, and the tailback also won’t get enough volume to hit this Over.
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College Football Playoff live odds & game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- How to watch: TNT/Max
- Weather: 27 degrees, 65% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NW
- Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
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