Saturday NCAAF Prime Time: Wisconsin Yes, Michigan No

badgers vs wisconsin

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 9, 2018 7:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 7:59 PM UTC

The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines are favored by more than a touchdown to beat the No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday. At those NCAAF odds, we’ll take Wisconsin.

Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record Week 6: 10-6 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-1 Totals

No. 15 Wisconsin at No. 12 MichiganSaturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Ann Arbor (ABC)Free NCAAF Pick: BadgersBest Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Looks like we need those stinkin’ Badgers after all. That would be the No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS), of course. They’re in the prime-time spotlight this Saturday at The Big House, where they’ll take on the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) in Big Ten action; at press time, Michigan are laying 7.5 points on the NCAAF odds board, up from 6.5 at the open. That move across the magic number 7 may have given us the profit margin we need to take the other side. To the pickmobile!

Top 10 in the Big Ten

You can almost see the Wolverines winning this game by 7, can’t you? That’s pretty much where the football nerds at FiveThirtyEight have it. They project Michigan to beat Wisconsin 67 percent of the time; that’s a vig-free moneyline of UM –203 using the glorious SBR Odds Converter, and that’s about the same as UM –6 according to the equivalent vig-free point spreads at Wizard of Odds.

The advanced stats at Football Outsiders give us even more reason to put the Badgers in our college football picks. They’ve got Michigan at No. 9 overall on their F/+ Combined Ratings through Week 6, just one spot ahead of Wisconsin. And for an extra boost of confidence, switch to the Classic view on the SBR odds board, where the consensus numbers show the Badgers pulling in 100 percent of the earliest bettors surveyed at +7 (–115). It’s just the right thing to do.

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Since winning his first game vs a Top-15 opponent at Michigan 38-0, Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 vs Top 15 opponents. And since Michigan's last win over a Top-15 team - Wisconsin in 2016 - the Wolverines have lost six straight vs Top 15 teams.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) 9 de outubro de 2018
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Taxidea Famishus

So why the Badgers, and why now? They only game they’ve covered thus far was the one we’ve linked to above, where we recommended the Iowa Hawkeyes as 3.5-point home dogs, and Wisconsin won 28-17. However, the Badgers are this close to being 4-1 ATS. They won each of their first two games at home by 31 points, but were favored by 36.5 over Western Kentucky and 35.5 over New Mexico. And last week, they beat Nebraska 41-24 at home, just barely missing the cover as 18-point faves.

We’re also dealing with a Michigan team that’s one of the most popular brands in college football – certainly more popular than Wisconsin. And the Badgers have covered both their previous meetings with UM since Jim Harbaugh came to Ann Arbor in 2015. That includes a 14-7 loss to the Wolverines two years ago as 11.5-point road dogs. There’s your 7-point victory right there. Let’s see if lightning strikes twice this weekend, and as always, may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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