Saturday Last Call: Boise State to Focus on Running Attack at Nevada

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, October 11, 2018 12:01 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018 12:01 PM UTC

Our Mountain West Conference expert, Mark Lathrop, reads the tea leaves to find us the angle to wager on the late, late Boise State vs. Nevada game on Saturday Night.

2018 NCAAF Record: 18-11, +11.70u
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Boise State Broncos (3-2 SU) @ Nevada Wolf Pack (3-3 SU)Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, CBS Sports NetworkFree NCAAF Pick: Under 62Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Boise State and their huge preseason expectations took a blow last week as they were shocked with an outright loss as 13-point favorites at home against San Diego State. They’ll try to right the ship against Nevada with a trip to Reno, where the Wolf Pack are also licking their wounds after a 21-3 loss to Fresno State.

Nevada is struggling on defense this year, but is better at home where they have played Fresno State, Oregon State, and Portland State. They held those three teams to just 73 yards rushing per game at 2 yards per attempt. This apparent strength is going to go head to head with a Boise State team that is likely going to focus on running the ball more on Saturday night. That opinion is coming straight from coach Bryan Harsin’s mouth, who voiced his displeasure about the Boise State running game in his Monday press conference following the loss to San Diego State. The Broncos have only averaged 2.5 yards per carry in games other than their blowout of UConn.

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Reno 411: Boise State vs Nevada game preview https://t.co/oS5yDJg8rx pic.twitter.com/mb8oF6OHQd

— OBNUG (@OBNUG) 10 de outubro de 2018
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Nevada’s quarterback situation is fluid at the moment, with Ty Gangi missing practice on Monday, but practicing Tuesday. Gangi had a terrible performance last year against Boise State. In that game on the blue turf, Gangi passed for just 160 yards with 3 interceptions. Most of the defensive backfield is back from last season for Boise State, and unless the altitude is a problem, I’d expect the Broncos defense to come out ready to snuff out the Wolf Pack’s pass heavy attack.

With two teams coming off of losses, I’m frankly surprised that oddsmakers had enough confidence to open Boise State as 19.5-point favorites. That line has crashed towards Nevada to -17; however, have not crossed that important number. We’ve had significant movement in the total as well, with an opening line at 59 getting pounded early. That 59 total is exactly the same as last year’s closing line by the way. The line has moved to 62 at some books, while others have nudged it to 60.5. With Boise State vocally giving references that they are going to try to improve their running game, and the Bronco defense a good matchup against Nevada, I am finding value in the Under in this spot. Last year’s 41-14 Boise State win cashed the under as well, and a similar score is indicated in the markets here. I’ll take the Under in this game as my Last Call for Saturday night NCAAF action.

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