Penn State vs. Boise State Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: CFP Fiesta Bowl
Penn State will look to ride the momentum of its blowout win over SMU across the country to the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. for its College Football Playoff quarterfinals matchup on Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) against Boise State.
- Our Penn State vs. Boise State early picks and odds expect the Nittany Lions to be too powerful in the trenches for Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos
- Boise State (+8500) has the longest college football championship odds of the eight remaining teams
- The Nittany Lions are double-digit favorites by the Penn State vs. Boise State opening odds
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My early Penn State vs. Boise State prediction: CFP Fiesta Bowl
College football picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Penn State -10.5
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Despite having the Heisman runner-up in Jeanty, Boise State is in for a rude awakening in the Grand Canyon State. Penn State is playing its best football of the season right now and has the talent in the front seven to thwart the Broncos' rushing attack.
This game could be a showcase of the differing talent levels in the trenches from a top-tier Group of 5 team to a premier P4 squad. Led by future top-10 pick Abdul Carter, Penn State has the No. 6 defense in EPA per rush and allows the seventh-fewest rushing yards in the country (100.4).
The bigger problem for the Broncos may be getting behind early with the way Drew Allar has been playing as of late. James Franklin's star QB has the Nittany Lions No. 2 in EPA per dropback on offense, and Boise State isn't built to lean on the passing attack.
An early Penn State lead puts immense pressure on Maddux Madsen and allows Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and Zane Durant to pin their ears back and rush the passer. If the Nittany Lions cover, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
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Penn State vs. Boise State live odds
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Moneyline
- Penn State best odds: -420 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 80.77%
- Boise State best odds: +340 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 22.73%
Given Penn State's performance in the first round of the CFP, Boise State is an overwhelming underdog. Our best sports betting sites have the Broncos no shorter than +320 to win and the best ML odds pay only a $2.38 profit for Nittany Lions backers.
If the public rallies behind Jeanty's star power, this line could see some movement, but I doubt it. The talent disparity is stark between the G5 and P4.
Spread
- Penn State best odds: -10.5 (-115) via FanDuel
- Boise State best odds: +11 (-110) via Caesars
The Nittany Lions blew out SMU 38-10 as 9-point favorites, which is why I have a tough time seeing this line dropping below double digits. All of our best sports betting apps have Penn State between -10.5 and -11. If anything, I could see the line moving further in PSU's direction, even with the Jeanty factor.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 52 (-105) via Caesars
- Under best odds: 52.5 (-110) via FanDuel
While I strongly believe Penn State will cover the spread, the Over/Under is difficult to read. Jeanty has the talent to put enough points on the board for this Over to hit, but if Penn State builds an early lead, that may not be possible. I wouldn't be shocked if this game total moves closer to 50.5 by kickoff.
Penn State vs. Boise State injuries to watch
How to watch the CFP Fiesta Bowl
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Penn State -11 (-108 via DraftKings)
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