Ohio vs. Toledo Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Week 13
Treacherous conditions for passing could lie ahead, but the MACtion will carry on Wednesday in Toledo.
Our Ohio vs. Toledo prediction envisions the tough weather conditions contributing to low scoring between two teams that lean heavily on their defenses at the best of times.
Toledo (-1.5) hosts Ohio at The Glass Bowl on Wednesday night at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Ohio enters the clash sitting third in the MAC championship odds.
Best Ohio vs. Toledo picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ohio +2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Toledo ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Under 44.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ohio vs. Toledo against the spread prediction: Week 13
Ohio to cover the spread: +2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ohio vs. Toledo opening odds:
- Ohio: +2.5 (-110)
- Toledo: -2.5 (-110)
Play this matchup in a dome and you might get a different result. But wind gusts of up to 35 mph are expected, so conditions could be rough for both passing offenses on Wednesday. There's only a 20% chance of precipitation at kickoff, but wind is often the element that can most impact a game.
The weather might impact Toledo more significantly, as the Rockets rank 41st in the nation in passing offense but are 113th in rushing efficiency at 3.5 yards per carry.
Ground game favors the Bobcats
Ohio has run roughshod through the recent portion of its schedule behind dual-threat QB Parker Navarro. The Bobcats have won three straight conference games, posting an average margin of victory of 32.3 points per contest.
Locked into a three-way tie atop the conference standings, I look for Ohio to stay alive in the MAC race under weather conditions that could favor its superior ground play. Ohio ranks 21st in run defense while allowing 113.7 yards per game. And offensively the school is averaging 208.7 rushing yards per contest, ranking 14th in the FBS.
FanDuel offers an outlier line of Ohio +2.5 that favors the road team relative to the Ohio +1.5 lines posted at the rest of our best sports betting sites.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Ohio vs. Toledo best bet
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Under 44.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The total for this matchup has been driven down to 44.5 after opening at 48.5, with the windy and rainy forecast likely explaining the movement.
The quality of the defense has been stronger than the offense on both sides, so we still see value in playing the Under on this fast-dropping line.
The best offense is a good defense
Both Ohio and Toledo feature adjusted defensive efficiency rankings that outpace offensive efficiency rankings. Toledo is 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to FPI, but 91st in adjusted offensive efficiency. Though the gap is less significant for Ohio, the Bobcats are 83rd offensively and 73rd defensively.
Both the Bobcats and Rockets rank inside the top 40 in opponent's scoring average, allowing only 21.1 and 22.3 points per game, respectively.
The total is listed at 44.5 across our best sportsbooks, but FanDuel offers the best value for Under bettors. Odds are listed at -105 instead of -110 at other shops for one of your college football Week 13 predictions.
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
Ohio vs. Toledo odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Ohio vs. Toledo line movement
The point spread and moneyline have been staying relatively steady since the initial offerings for this game.
However, the total has plunged, no doubt due to the high likelihood of challenging weather conditions. The opening total for this game was 50.5 back on Saturday night. It spiraled as low as 44.5 before rebounding slightly to 46.5.
Ohio vs. Toledo game info
- When: Wednesday, Nov. 20
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 43 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 24 mph W
- Favorite: Toledo -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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