Ohio State vs. Oregon Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: CFP Rose Bowl
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals feature a rematch of arguably the best game of the season at the historic Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN) when Ohio State and Oregon take the field.
- With both teams featuring defenses full of NFL talent, our Ohio State vs. Oregon early picks and odds favor the Under
- The Buckeyes and Ducks are two of just three teams with college football championship odds shorter than 5/1
- Although Dan Lanning's team beat Ryan Day's during the regular season, the Buckeyes are the favorites by the Ohio State vs. Oregon opening odds
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My early Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: CFP Rose Bowl
College football picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Under 54.5
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
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The first time around, Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31. However, both these teams are in far different situations in the rematch. Oregon's defense didn't get into a groove until the second half of the season and was down Jordan Burch in the first matchup.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is now without center Seth McLaughlin, the Rimington winner, along with potential first-round left tackle Josh Simmons, who has been out for the season since going down against the Ducks. So for as explosive as the Buckeyes offense is, the Ducks rank No. 5 in EPA per dropback on defense and could cause major issues for Will Howard.
Luckily for the Buckeyes' faithful, Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is capable of dismantling offenses - like it did against Tennessee. The Buckeyes allow the fewest points per game in the nation (11.4) and the only time they've allowed more than 17 points this season was in that loss to the Ducks.
With the Buckeyes sitting No. 3 in both EPA per rush and dropback on defense, Dillon Gabriel's going to find himself under pressure frequently. If both pass rushes can get after the QBs, the Buckeyes will hit the Under for the sixth time in eight games and turn a $10 bet into an $8.93 profit.
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Ohio State vs. Oregon live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every college football bowl game.
Moneyline
- Ohio State best odds: -130 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.52%
- Oregon best odds: +114 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.73%
Our best sports betting sites are all in lockstep with the moneyline, but I think we will see slight movement in the Ducks' direction as we get closer to the new year. Oregon won by one point at home the first time but has only looked better with each game since while it's hard to know which version of Ohio State will show up.
Spread
- Ohio State best odds: -2.5 (-110) via Caesars
- Oregon best odds: +2.5 (-108) via DraftKings
The public got burned by backing the Buckeyes in October against the Ducks, and since then Day choked against Michigan again. The Tennessee win was impressive, but a neutral site game between two evenly matched teams should be a pick'em.
A part of me wonders if the combo of recency bias and the Buckeyes beating the Vols by 25 will lead to the public being all over a blue-blood program like Ohio State once again.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 53.5 (-115) via Caesars
- Under best odds: 54.5 (-112) via FanDuel
I think the first game between these two may be informing the Over/Under across our best sports betting apps too much. The Ducks' defense has been transformed in the second half of the year and the Buckeyes injuries on the offensive line are massive. Look for this game total to dip at least one point, and it could drop as low as 51.5.
Ohio State vs. Oregon injuries to watch
How to watch the CFP Rose Bowl
- When: Wednesday, Jan. 1
- Kickoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 70 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 2 mph NE
- Favorite: Ohio State -2.5 (-112 via DraftKings)
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