Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Preview: Film Breakdown & Expert Analysis of CFP National Championship Game
In the college football season finale with everything on the line, Ohio State takes on Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship Game on Monday, Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Ahead of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff title game, we're offering our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview using film breakdown, advanced stats, and expert analysis to help inform our best Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview: Who will win CFP National Championship Game?
Along with our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks, we've broken down this matchup from every angle - including full team previews for Ohio State and Notre Dame and how they compare in key areas ahead of Monday's CFP National Championship Game.
- Ohio State football preview: Roster breakdown, key stats
- Notre Dame football preview: Roster breakdown, key stats
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison: Tale of the tape
Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area. You can also follow our guide on how to bet on college football to help inform your college football picks for the national championship.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame advanced stats, key metrics
Stats courtesy of College Football Insiders and PFF.
| Key stats | Ohio State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA margin (rank) | 0.299 (1st) | 0.242 (3rd) |
| Offensive success rate (rank) | 47.5% (8th) | 45.2% (25th) |
| Defensive success rate (rank) | 34.9% (4th) | 36.4% (10th) |
| Early downs EPA offense (rank) | 0.177 (12th) | 0.135 (25th) |
| Early downs EPA defense (rank) | -0.186 (1st) | -0.114 (11th) |
| 3rd/4th down success offense (rank) | 45.6% (20th) | 44% (41st) |
| 3rd/4th down success defense (rank) | 35.2% (20th) | 30.4% (4th) |
| Eckel rate offense (rank) | 50.3% (29th) | 48.2% (39th) |
| Eckel rate defense (rank) | 30.5% (5th) | 28.4% (1st) |
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame film breakdown, expert analysis
Here is what our expert film analysis says about Ohio State and Notre Dame ahead of the CFP National Championship Game on Monday, Jan. 20.
Ohio State offense vs. Notre Dame defense
When Ohio State's offense and Notre Dame's defense are on the field, it's truly a best vs. best scenario. Despite the loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive tackle Rylie Mills to season-ending injuries, the Fighting Irish rank No. 1 in EPA per dropback on defense.
Their pass defense is as good as it gets, but it's going to be dealing with its biggest challenge of the season against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the top team on offense by EPA per dropback, and wide receivers Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate are a huge reason why.
Stopping Smith needs to be the Irish's top priority, and even when Texas managed to hold him to one reception in the Cotton Bowl, the Buckeyes still won. The issue for Marcus Freeman and Al Golden's defense is that without Morrison, Notre Dame doesn't have the top-end corner depth to stop all three of the Buckeyes' NFL talents at receiver.
While Christian Gray, Leonard Moore, and Jordan Clark are a nice trio - a combined 25 forced incompletions with none of them allowing an NFL QB rating over 76.9 - Smith and Egbuka are likely future first-round picks and the two best receivers this secondary has seen this season.
Smith has a lethal combo of explosiveness and contested catch ability; he's one of just four players in the country with double-digit contested catches (12) and three-plus yards per route run (3.13). He's extraordinary at both creating separation through subtle movements and stacking defenders on vertical routes.
Meanwhile, Egbuka is one of the top chain-movers in the country - his 47 first-down receptions rank 18th nationally. He can dominate out of the slot with his ability in traffic (13 contested catches), and his body control is especially impressive. It's clear quarterback Will Howard trusts him in high-leverage situations.
With Howard playing his best football of the season down the stretch - 11 big-time throws to just five turnover-worthy plays in his last six games - and taking his game up a notch with his intermediate and deep ball placement against Oregon and Tennessee, Notre Dame will need safety Xavier Watts to be an X-factor to slow the Buckeyes.
Watts is one of the best defensive backs in the country and a true ball magnet with 15 forced turnovers in the last two seasons. He also offers major versatility with his ability to play two-deep, single-high, nickel, and in the box matching up with tight ends.
Of course, with Chip Kelly calling plays for the Buckeyes, Notre Dame can't just worry about stopping the pass, and the loss of Mills could hurt its defense even against a banged-up Buckeyes O-line. The combo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins is one of the best in the country with the duo combining for 1,167 rushing yards after contact, 75 forced missed tackles on rushes, and 36 runs of 15-plus yards.
With Kelly's penchant for pin-and-pull runs, it should help Ohio State hide some of its flaws on the interior offensive line and take advantage of the Irish being down Mills. Still, it isn't just Watts who could cause chaos against the Buckeyes' offense.
Key matchup to watch
The single-most important matchup I'm watching in the title game is Ohio State's interior offensive line against Notre Dame defensive tackle Howard Cross III. Due to season-ending injuries to Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin, the Buckeyes have two new starters at left guard and center - they kicked starting left guard Donovan Jackson out to left tackle to fill in for Simmons.
With Mills out, Cross needs to be the game-wrecker we've seen for stretches if the Irish are going to win. Arguably the three weakest starters in Ohio State's lineup are center Carson Hinzman and guards Austin Siereveld and Tegra Tshabola. We saw Michigan dominate them with Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant in the regular-season finale, which was also the last time the Buckeyes lost.
Cross needs to do the same, and he's capable of it with his rare combo of quickness and heavy hands as an interior pass rusher. He's racked up 60 pressures over the last two years and has a 9.3% pass-rush win rate this season. If he can expose the backups starting along Ohio State's O-line and spend the evening hunting down Howard, it can totally change this game and take a ton of pressure of the Irish's secondary.
Notre Dame offense vs. Ohio State defense
The biggest reason I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame pull out a win on Monday night is because this offense just hasn't proven to be consistent with Riley Leonard at the helm. The Duke transfer plays quarterback like Taysom Hill with his rugged running style and sporadic passing.
Notre Dame is just 20th in EPA per dropback this season and 39th in Eckel rate, and that's because this passing game is simply not very good. It's not just Leonard, either, as the Irish don't have any game-changers in the pass-catching room.
Even future NFL tight end Mitchell Evans hasn't looked like the same player this season after tearing his ACL in October last year. The receiver room isn't terrible - there's been flashes from Jaden Greathouse, Beaux Collins, and lacrosse star Jordan Faison - but none of them consistently create seperation.
Notre Dame doesn't have a pass-catcher who even ranks in the top 200 in the country in yards per route run, and not a single one of them has reached double-digit contested catches this season. In fact, Greathouse and Evans lead the team in first-down receptions with 20 apiece, which is less than half of what both Smith and Egbuka have for the Buckeyes.
The lack of star talent in Notre Dame's pass-catching corps could be exposed even more in this game with four of Ohio State's five starters in the secondary potentially set to be drafted in April. The lone player who won't be is true sophomore Caleb Downs - one of the best players in the country - and he along with Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, Jordan Hancock, and Lathan Ransom should have a field day against the Irish.
So while Leonard's passing has been an issue, it can't all be put on him when the team just doesn't have a field-flipping playmaker. This is a large reason why offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock leans so heavily on his run game, to the point it sometimes feels like the Irish are a service academy running the triple option.
Luckily for Notre Dame faithful, the Irish being borderline one-dimensional hasn't hurt their effectiveness on the ground. They rank No. 1 in EPA per rush this season and have one of the top running backs in the country in Jeremiyah Love.
Love, a sophomore, already looks like a potential top-50 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with his 62 forced missed tackles on the ground this season ranking 16th in the country. It helps that Leonard is among the best running QBs, too, forcing defenses to account for him - he's 10th in rushing yards after contact (517) and forced missed tackles (41) among QBs.
Leaning on those two is Notre Dame's best plan of attack, but Ohio State's most underrated player happens to be interior defensive lineman and run-stuffing extraordinaire Tyleik Williams - he may be Ohio State's highest drafted player this April.
He and Ty Hamilton give Jim Knowles' defense two players capable of playing everything from nose tackle to 4i on the D-line while plugging gaps and occupying blocks to keep the linebackers clean; they've combined for 44 run stops this season. But it's the two guys beside them that could be the biggest problem for Notre Dame's reshuffled offensive line.
Key matchup to watch
Seeing how Leonard handles Ohio State's edge-rushing duo of Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau behind an O-line dealing with several injuries could make or break Notre Dame's ability to even cover the 8-point spread in this matchup.
With Anthonie Knapp out, fellow freshman Charles Jagusah is expected to make his first start of the season at left tackle after an injury knocked him out until the CFP. That's not all, as Notre Dame lost starting center Ashton Craig earlier in the year while guard Rocco Spindler is expected to play through an ankle injury that took him out against Penn State.
As if dealing with Williams and Hamilton wreaking havoc against the run wasn't enough, Notre Dame is relying on a freshman making his first start to help slow two potential top-50 NFL draft picks and former five-star recruits in Sawyer and Tuimoloau.
The duo has a whopping 108 combined pressures 29 QB hits and 20.5 sacks this season, and both have a pass-rush win rate above 12%. Given how antsy Leonard gets under pressure - he often speeds up his process and gets happy feet, which impacts his accuracy - those two could completely dismantle Notre Dame's already lackluster passing attack.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks & predictions
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame player props
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison
- Ohio State football preview
- Notre Dame football preview
- CFP national championship MVP odds
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions: CFP National Championship Game
Ohio State will beat Notre Dame if ...
The most obvious way Ohio State will win against Notre Dame is through the difference in passing attacks. The biggest reason isn't that Howard is that much better as a quarterback than Leonard; it's because of Smith and Egbuka.
Smith is just a matchup nightmare, and The Athletic's Dane Brugler has even said that if the true freshman were allowed to enter, Smith would go No. 1 in the 2025 NFL Draft. There are no other offensive players taking the field that are anywhere near as talented as him, and if Notre Dame sells out to stop him with Watts, that will just open things up for Egbuka and Tate.
Of course, there's the real possibility that Smith will be slowed, similarly to the way he was against Texas, and that Howard won't be at the level he was against the Ducks and Volunteers. But even in that scenario, Ohio State has two star running backs to lean on and the best defense in the country.
That side in particular is capable of winning this game if the Buckeyes' passing attack struggles. Sawyer, Tuimoloau, Williams, and Hamilton can completely wreck the Irish's offensive line, and this secondary should bully Notre Dame's uninspired pass-catching corps.
There's just so much talent on the Buckeyes' roster that they could come out victorious in so many different ways. They're better equipped to win a shootout and a defensive grudge match.
Notre Dame will beat Ohio State if ...
There's one very clear way for Notre Dame to win against Ohio State: take advantage of this shaky offensive line and harass Howard into making mistakes. The Irish lead the country with 32 forced turnovers, and Watts and Cross are the key to victory.
If Cross can play up to the All-American level he was at last season when fully healthy, he should be able to rely on his pass-rush plan to expose Siereveld and Hinzman. And Ohio State right tackle Josh Fryar has been inconsistent, too, meaning Junior Tuihalamaka and R.J. Oben could take advantage of him.
If that trio on the D-line gets after Howard - who has the 22nd-most turnover-worthy plays among Power 4 QBs this season (15) - it will help Watts and this secondary immensely in their impossible task of covering Smith, Egbuka, and Tate.
Leonard and this offense would still need to score points, which won't be easy. But we saw them lean on the run game to control the clock against Georgia and Penn State, two defenses that rank in the top 12 in SP+. And if they can get into fourth-and-short situations and steal possessions, anything is possible - Notre Dame is eighth in the country in fourth down conversion rate (73.1%).
Putting pressure on Howard, creating turnovers, controlling the clock, and being aggressive on fourth down is how the Irish can win their first championship since 1988. If Notre Dame wins, I think it will be something in the ballpark of 17-13.
Who will win the CFP National Championship Game?
To me, the likeliest outcome is a bar fight in the first half with the offenses struggling to create explosive plays and the defenses both getting after offensive lines that are missing starters.
However, I think the second half is where Ohio State will ultimately see its talent separate - Smith will literally separate and get loose at some point to make a play that will have social media abuzz about how he's the next Julio Jones.
Despite my belief that Ohio State's overall talent will be the difference, I don't think Notre Dame is going to roll over and die. This team has proven to be resilient all season and has a defense among the best in the country, with an offense that wants to punch you in the mouth.
The Irish are almost a diet version of Michigan under Jim Harbaugh with their approach, and we all know how much Ryan Day struggles with the Wolverines. So while I give the Buckeyes the edge, I think Notre Dame will cover for the 11th straight game.
Prediction: Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 20
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds, betting lines for CFP National Championship
Here are the latest college football odds via our best college football betting sites ahead of the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 20.
College football odds pages
| CFP National Championship Odds | SEC Odds | Big 12 Odds |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | Big Ten Odds | ACC Odds |
| College Football Playoff Odds | Mountain West Odds | MAC Odds |
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
