Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Prediction Tonight: CFP National Championship Game Odds & Picks
The 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship will see two of the sport's blue bloods go to battle tonight when the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Kickoff inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction expects the Fighting Irish to give the Buckeyes - who are 8.5-point favorites at our best sports betting sites - everything they can handle.
Our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks analyze tonight's contest from every betting angle as college football prepares to crown a champion.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction & best pick: CFP National Championship
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Notre Dame +9.5 (-112 via BetRivers) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Jeremiah Smith Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame ATS prediction
Notre Dame to cover the spread: +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Although I'm predicting the Buckeyes will take home the national championship in our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview, I think it could be a tougher fight than the spread anticipates. Expecting the Buckeyes to record a double-digit win against this Notre Dame team underestimates how tough and well-coached the Irish are this season - and how frequently Freeman's squad covers as a dog.
While Notre Dame has only been an underdog seven times during Freeman's reign as the king of South Bend, the Irish are 6-1 against the spread and 4-3 straight up in those games. That includes covering as a 15-point underdog against the Buckeyes in 2022. Notre Dame has also covered in 11 straight games this season.
It's going to come down to whether Notre Dame can move the ball enough. Still, even with the team's inconsistent passing game, the combo of Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price have pushed this offense to being ranked No. 1 in EPA per rush and No. 6 by SP+. Keeping the ball on the ground will also help shorten this game.
Irish for a day
I'm not the only one who thinks Notre Dame can make this a game, despite Ohio State's dominance in the CFP. The public is backing the Irish, according to the betting consensus, with 64% taking them to cover the spread and just 36% supporting the Buckeyes.
A significant reason why I'm in on Notre Dame is because of its defense. The team sits No. 1 in EPA per dropback and No. 5 in EPA per rush. It also boasts the personnel to exploit Ohio State's reshuffled interior offensive line. Irish defensive tackle Howard Cross III has produced a 9.3% pass-rush win rate this season, according to PFF, and he's capable of getting after Will Howard.
Notre Dame leads the country in forced turnovers (32). If Cross and the pass rush can pressure Howard and force him into mistakes, this Irish team can stay in the game late. I'm predicting a 24-20 Ohio State win, which means a Notre Dame cover would pay an $8.93 profit at this price.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks & predictions
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks
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- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best pick
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Jeremiah Smith Over 78.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Thanks to finishing with just one reception for three yards in the Cotton Bowl against a Texas defense that bracketed him the entire game, Smith's yards are set slightly lower than I expected. He's topped 78.5 receiving yards nine times this season, and Smith averaged 145 yards in the Buckeyes' first two CFP games.
There's word that Notre Dame plans to play man coverage against Ohio State, which the Irish have done all season. However, without Benjamin Morrison suiting up, the Irish don't trot out a cornerback capable of hanging with Smith, who's by far the most talented receiver Al Golden's defense has seen this season.
Smith is one of just four players in the country with double-digit contested catches (12) and three-plus yards per route run (3.13). And if you're worried offensive coordinator Chip Kelly won't get him the ball again after last week's performance, the last time that happened was against Michigan. Kelly followed it up with an outing when Smith was featured for 103 yards and two scores against Tennessee.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame live odds
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame opening odds:
- Ohio State: -9.5 (-110)
- Notre Dame: +9.5 (-110)
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds movement
Ohio State opened up as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame following their victories over Texas and Penn State, respectively. The line at BetMGM wavered - and even got down to -7.5 briefly - but the Buckeyes have always received significant public backing.
Ryan Day's men have held firm as 8.5-point favorites (-115) at our best sportsbooks in the build-up to tonight's kickoff.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame injuries
CFP National Championship game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 20
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
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