Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction Tonight: CFP National Championship
Ryan Day looks to continue his redemption arc when Ohio State plays Notre Dame in the CFP National Championship Game tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame player prop picks focus on two of the Buckeyes' stars of the College Football Playoff, and the Fighting Irish's struggling quarterback.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame most bet player props: CFP National Championship
According to BetMGM, the Under on Jeremiyah Love's rushing yards (42.5) is the most bet player prop for the CFP National Championship. The most bet Over on any player is Emeka Egbuka's receiving yards (59.5).
When it comes to finding the end zone, Love (+140) is the most bet Notre Dame player to score while Jeremiah Smith (-140) is the most bet Buckeyes player to find pay dirt in the championship.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame college football player prop picks: CFP National Championship
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
- TreVeyon Henderson touchdown prediction: Anytime TD scorer (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Riley Leonard prop pick: Under 178.5 passing yards (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jeremiah Smith prop pick: Over 79.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame touchdown prediction
TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.78%
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There are a couple of different Buckeyes that you could target to find the end zone against Notre Dame, but Henderson is offering by far the best value at our college football betting sites.
While Smith (15) and Quinshon Judkins (13) have logged more TDs this season than Henderson (11), the Buckeyes' senior running back has turned it on during the CFP. He's scored in all three of Ohio State's College Football Playoff games and leads the team with five postseason scores.
Henderson has looked fresh and explosive in the CFP after splitting the backfield with Judkins for the entire season. He's averaging an impressive 121.6 yards from scrimmage on 10.6 touches per game in the playoff.
While Notre Dame boasts a top-notch defense, Henderson's combo of burst and contact balance should create issues. He's a dynamo in space with five runs of 15-plus yards in the postseason to go with 169 rushing yards after contact, according to PFF.
The best odds for Henderson also pay a $10.50 profit on a $10 winning bet as opposed to Smith's (-115) and Judkins' (-105).
Best Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prop picks
Riley Leonard Under 178.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
The most obvious reason Ohio State is more than a touchdown favorite against Notre Dame is because of the Fighting Irish's one-dimensional offense. While Leonard has showcased his ability as a runner, he's been unpredictable as a passer this season.
The Duke transfer has thrown for fewer than 179 yards in nine of 15 games (60%) and has more turnover-worthy plays (three) than big-time throws (two) in the College Football Playoff. It doesn't help his case that Notre Dame's pass-catchers struggle to separate and not one of them ranks in the top 200 in the country in yards per route run.
Now he's taking on the No. 1 defense by SP+ which allows the fewest passing yards per game in the country (161.1). To make matters worse, Notre Dame is playing with a banged up O-line against a pass rush led by Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, who have a combined 108 pressures this season.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks & predictions
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Jeremiah Smith Over 79.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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When Texas held Smith to just one reception for three yards in the Cotton Bowl, Longhorns defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski utilized a strong game plan that involved bracketing him with a safety to give Jahdae Barron and Malik Muhammad help.
It sounds as if Notre Dame may not play Smith the same way, with cornerback Leonard Moore saying the Irish will predominantly be in man coverage, much like they have been all season. That's part of the reason I'm not worried about Smith being shut down again, and the other is that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has benefitted from over a week to figure out how to get his star the ball.
Last time Smith was quieted in a marquee game was when Michigan kept him to 35 yards. The next two games Smith was fed and proceeded to record 290 yards and four scores on 13 receptions against Tennessee and Oregon during the first two games of the CFP.
He should clear 79.5 receiving yards for the 10th time this season and turn a $10 bet into an $8.70 profit.
CFP National Championship Game odds & game info
- When: Monday, Jan. 20
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Ohio State -8 (-110 via Caesars)
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