New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction Tonight: Week 11 Picks & Odds
Two conference foes face off tonight at 10:30 p.m. ET (FS1) when San Diego State hosts New Mexico at Snapdragon Stadium.
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We also expect San Diego State to bolster its Mountain West Championship odds if it can snap a two-game skid against New Mexico, which is riding its own losing streak.
Here is our game preview for tonight's game as part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State betting splits
San Diego State opened as short as -3 across our best sportsbooks, but we've seen the market move toward New Mexico ahead of tonight's matchup.
That market movement comes despite the Aztecs drawing two-thirds of the spread bets ahead of this Mountain West clash, so sharps could be targeting the underdogs to end a two-game losing streak.
Best New Mexico vs. San Diego State picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: San Diego State -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. New Mexico ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: New Mexico-San Diego State Over 66 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New Mexico vs. San Diego State against the spread prediction: Week 11
San Diego State to cover the spread: -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
New Mexico vs. San Diego State opening odds:
- New Mexico: +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- San Diego State: -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Turnovers could decide the result, and the arrow points to Aztecs
There's not much separating these two sides. The visitors come in with one of the country's best offenses. However, Bronco Mendenhall’s men rank 131st of 133 among FBS teams in scoring defense. Meanwhile, San Diego State is average to below average in the those categories.
Both teams feature promising quarterbacks in Devon Dampier and Danny O’Neil, but it’s important to remember they’re young. That's especially true with the Lobos’ signal caller, who has struggled to take care of the football.
Turnovers could prove to be the difference in this matchup between high-octane offenses.
That's one of the few reasons we’re giving a slight edge to the Aztecs.
San Diego State boasts a far better turnover margin (+3) than New Mexico (-8) this year, and every possession matters in closely contested clashes. The hosts also beat the only common opponent the teams share, Wyoming, whereas the Lobos fell at home to the Cowboys in Week 10.
BetMGM offers the best odds for bettors looking to back the Aztecs. The standard price of -110 is great value to grab the hook as part of your college football Week 11 predictions. You can avoid the potential push the offerings from some of our other best college football betting sites could invite.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State best bet
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New Mexico-San Diego State Over 66 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Caesars lists New Mexico-San Diego State with the third-highest total of Week 11 at 66, trailing only Utah State-Washington State and Oklahoma State-TCU. We’re not letting that scare us away from betting the over in the slugfest at San Diego though.
New Mexico boasts a top-25 scoring offense that averages nearly 35 points per game. The Lobos also boast the No. 7 total offense, and they're leaning 7-2 to the Over this season. While San Diego State (22.5 points per game) hasn’t been as clinical, there’s little worry considering Air Force — the nation’s worst scoring offense — put up 37 points on New Mexico.
The Aztecs and Lobos combine to surrender 68.4 points per contest. The total has been bet down from 67.5 throughout the week, which is why we're putting a four-star confidence on these teams going Over the updated line.
Elsewhere, our Mike Spector is eyeing New Mexico in his college football upset picks for Week 11.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 46 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 5-mph NE
- Favorite: San Diego State -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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